Strategic Analysis

Understanding (Changing) Chinese Strategic Perceptions of India

This article argues that in contradiction to the conventional wisdom that the Sino-Indian rivalry is one-sided (with only India viewing China as a rival); China has always factored India in its strategic calculus. The Sino-Indian relationship is asymmetric only to the extent that while India regards China as its 'principal rival', China considers India as only one of its (many) 'strategic rivals' as opposed to the principal one. This article also analyses articles related to India published in English-language Chinese journals in recent years.

Role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Afghanistan: Scope and Limitations

Today, the situation in Afghanistan is mired with the geopolitics of regional and extra-regional players. Bringing stability to the country is a major challenge for the international community. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has the potential to play an important role, provided it is able to make some adjustments in its policy. Given its strengths and weaknesses, it is likely to focus more on economic, trade and security related issues within the Eurasian region rather than in Afghanistan.

Pakistani Nuclear Use and Implications for India

The robustness of India's nuclear doctrine would face a severe challenge in the case of conventional military offensives into Pakistan in a future Indo-Pak conflict. Such offensives are possible in case Pakistan's nuclear threshold is taken as high and its doctrine one of 'last resort'. However, Pakistani nuclear use options may include lower order nuclear use. In light of this, it recommends that India take a serious look at the Limited War concept as well as revise its nuclear doctrine to 'flexible nuclear retaliation'.

Name of the Game is Interdependence: A Comment

Bharat Wariavwalla's ‘Name of the Game is Interdependence’ is a thoughtful and elegantly written essay that has insights for both the theoretically inclined academic as well as the policy wonk. The essay can almost neatly be divided into three parts. The first part focuses on the constraints that are imposed on contemporary great power relations (especially between China and the United States) because of multiple levels of interdependence.

Maintaining Strategic Autonomy in an Interdependent World

As I have understood Bharat Wariavwalla's thoughtful article, and from the current discourse on geostrategic global balance, three central issues can be raised. First, we live in an interdependent world that is the outcome of a globalised economy. Therefore, no country can expect to wield unconstrained power or strategic hegemony, which allows it to disregard either universally accepted behavioural norms or even national sovereignty. Therefore, it is irrelevant to talk of a unipolar world.

Name of the Game is Interdependence: A Response

According to Bharat Wariavwalla, the Manmohan Singh-led government ‘believes that the US rules supreme and that the closer we stay with it the better we serve our interests. America will fight terror, secure us in the South Asian region and make us a world power’. In order to battle such a predilection, his article seeks to show the constraints on US power, mostly vis-à-vis the emerging superpower, China, which he implicitly sees as an emerging threat to India.

Fairy Tale of American Decline and China’s Rise

Has the power and influence of the United States declined in recent years? Does the current global recession, the outcome of the US invasion of Iraq and the resilience of the Taliban in Afghanistan provide adequate rationale to profess waning of US influence? Has China's power and influence grown to an extent that can effortlessly put it on the top of the global hierarchy of power? Is the US–China interdependence equitable enough to work as a deterrent against unbolted conflict?

Name of the Game Is Interdependence

Lawrence Summers, United States President Barack Obama's chief economic advisor and formerly secretary of treasury in the second term of the Clinton administration, once said that there was a ‘balance of financial terror’ between the US and its financial creditors, primarily China and Japan. Today, China, holding some $800 billion in US treasury bonds and some $2 trillion worth of currency reserves wields financial terror against the US.

Strategy and Tactics in Countering Left Wing Extremists in India

Left Wing Extremism (LWE) presents a serious internal security challenge to India that needs careful and coordinated policy response from both the security front and the development front. For the CPI (Maoists) (Communist Party of India), the main outfit propagating LWE, the plan and execution of this style of people's war against the state is like the Churchillian ‘a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’. At one level, the LWE can be described as a ‘Democratic revolution through tactical offensive with tactical speed in the protracted people's war of strategic defensive’.

A Growing Technological Gap with China?

The drivers for sustaining the decades-long growth of the Chinese economy are the subject of enduring conjecture, controversy and even wonder. From a US$1 trillion economy in the 1980s, China's GDP has crossed the US$4 trillion mark and is vying with Japan for the status of the number two economy in the world. China has now set itself the task of becoming a major research and development (R&D) power in the medium-term, signalling its ‘arrival’ as a major power.