IDSA Comments

Sino US Climate Pact: Context, text and subtext

The United States and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on bilateral cooperation on energy, climate change and environment during their recently concluded strategic and economic dialogue (SED). This MoU follows from a previous agreement, the Framework for Ten Year Cooperation of Energy and Environment (TYF) that was signed during the 2008 round of the SED.

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Sharm Al-Sheikh Indo-Pak Joint Statement: A Different Perspective

As the din and the dust raised by the Sharm al-Sheikh document settles down, it seems to be opening new possibilities for India to effectively deal with the emerging situation in Pakistan by finally being able to encourage and back ideas of democratic federalism and non sectarian polity in that country. The reference to Baluchistan in the Sharm al-Sheikh Joint Statement has invited the sharpest reactions. But, has not that reference elevated the issue of continuing Pakistani persecution of the Baluchs to an international level?

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Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis April 2009

April saw the foot soldiers of Taliban moving to Buner and Dir, after consolidating their position in Swat. The march of Taliban to Buner, which is separated from Islamabad just by the district of Haripur created a fear psychosis in the minds of the ruling elites in Islamabad. The shock and awe that Taliban had managed to create was clearly evident as the Pakistani parliament pushed through Nizam-e-Adl resolution, without refering it to any parliamentary committee on April 13.

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Two Trucks and One Jeep

In a reality check to the wild celebrations that broke out in Pakistan after the Supreme Court declared ‘illegal and unconstitutional’ the emergency that was imposed by General Pervez Musharraf on 3rd November 2007, former Prime Minister Shujaat Hussain reminded his compatriots that “two trucks and a jeep” rolling out of the military headquarters in Rawalpindi is all it takes to disrupt democratic rule in the country.

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China’s Changing Worldview

Recent Chinese writings indicate that the Chinese see themselves as a major player in international affairs. They see the global economic crisis as an historic opportunity to redefine the Chinese role. The following is a summary of broad points made in recent Chinese writings on a variety of international issues.

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For an Indo-Pak strategic dialogue forum

India is taking its time to reopen the dialogue process with Pakistan that has been suspended since 26/11. The meeting between Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Manmohan Singh and Pakistan’s President, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in Yekaterinburg in June had opened up possibilities of resumption. However, the joint statement following the one-on-one session between the two prime ministers at Sharm-el-Sheikh ran into rough weather.

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Between 2015 and 2050: Considerations in Negotiating a Date for an Indian Grand Strategy Project

Security planners often grapple with the question of how far out they should be looking and planning, and it is not a problem to take lightly. Many believe that as the pace of technology quickens and the number of possible interactions in a globalized, flattened world increase, the real horizon of meaningful forecast moves ever closer. But in my view that only forces us to look farther out, to things that seem distant today, but can be anticipated, and to take a longer view.

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Political convulsions in Japanese politics

Since the early 1950s, two factors have remained constant in Japan - the political domination of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the continuation of the Japan-US security alliance. The first factor is expected to undergo a change as the LDP is likely to give way to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the forthcoming elections for the lower House. Given this prospective political change, one might see a perceptible shift in Japan’s foreign policy, particularly its relationship with the US.

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Why Uighurs did not get support from West Asia?

The recent clashes that occurred between the Uighur Muslims and the Han Chinese workers in a toy factory and the subsequent spread of violence throughout the Xinjiang Uighur region have elicited strong responses from around the world. The clashes led to the death of over 184 people and left hundreds injured. The issue has also drawn world attention for the way it has been handled by the Chinese government.

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Jakarta Blasts and Jemaah Islamiyah

Indonesian police confirmed on July 19 that the twin blasts at the Ritz Carlton and Marriott Hotels in Jakarta two days earlier, which left nine people dead (including two suicide bombers) and more than 50 injured, was the handiwork of Jemaah Islamiyah. This shows that terrorism and terror networks are still existent in Indonesia, a nascent democratic country with the largest Muslim population in the world. These blasts are meant to create panic and show that the nebulous terror groups like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) are trying to come out of their oblivion.

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The Strategic Aspect of Migration from China’s North-East to Russia’s Far East

In a conference on socio-economic development in Kamchatka Kray in 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that if Russia does not step up the level of activity of its work in the Russian Far East (RFE), it may risk losing territory. The tone of his remarks was ‘unprecedented’ and reminiscent of former President Vladimir Putin’s even more direct and straightforward warning, who observed in 2000 that “if the authorities failed to develop the region, even the indigenous Russian population will mainly be speaking Japanese, Korean and Chinese in a few decades.”

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Making U.S-India 3.0 Work

The photo-ops with CEOs and students notwithstanding, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s much anticipated visit to India did not reach anywhere near the euphoria that marked the visit of her husband President Clinton to India in 2000. Her interactions also seemed to lack the genuine bonhomie between two friends that was seen during the visit of President Bush in 2006.

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Deconstructing the Joint Statement

Diplomatic and political naivety, coupled with enormous pressure from a clueless America helplessly flailing its superpower muscle in the Af-Pak region, and of course that old disease that all Indian Prime Ministers’ suffer from – a sense of manifest destiny to normalise relations with Pakistan – have led to a Joint Statement by the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers in Sharm-el-Sheikh which is full of concessions, compromises and climb-downs by India.

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Moon Mission Malfunction

It is a dream project not only for India’s space research organization (ISRO) but for all Indians. With the successful launch of the Moon Mission, ISRO had put India into the bracket of deep-space achievers. The world took serious note of India’ space programme when in October 2008 ISRO successfully launched its satellite Chandrayan-1 towards the moon. If the 1998 Pokharan nuclear tests had helped India demonstrate its ‘hard power’ status, the success of the moon mission indirectly played a significant role towards establishing the ‘soft power’ credentials of the country.

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Saving India-U.S. Partnership

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the U.S.-India Business Council in Washington D.C. on 17th June rekindling hope that India-U.S. relations could regain some of the traction lost under the Obama administration. She is now on a visit to India and it would be keenly watched for the actions she would take to match her words, especially since there is a growing uneasiness at the U.S. insensitivity to some of India’s important concerns. And the list of issues that could poison India-U.S. relations is getting longer.

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F-22 Raptor : Economics versus Technology

The US Department of Defence has been contemplating whether to lift the ban on F-22 exports, the fifth generation stealth aircraft. This would mean that many of the US allies namely Japan, Israel and others might become interested in procuring the aircraft. For Japan it would provide much needed air superiority to the Japanese Air Force concerned at North Korean long range missiles and nuclear capabilities (even though the US has stationed a dozen F-22s at Kadena air base in Japan since May 2009). Israel would like to get the aircraft to launch any pre-emptive strike on Iran.

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China’s eagle eye on Arunachal

Referring to India’s recent troop deployment in Arunachal Pradesh and the construction of a new airbase at Tezpur, Assam, Zhang Haizjou writing in China Daily on June 10, 2009 states that “India is attempting to extend its control over a disputed border area…” Similarly, Li Hongmei writing in the People’s Daily has held India responsible for hiking tension over Arunachal Pradesh by harbouring “awe, vexation, envy and jealousy – in the face of its giant neighbour” China.

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China’s Xinjiang Problem

It all started on 26 June in the toy factory owned by the Hong Kong-listed Lacewood International in China’s Shaoguan city of Guangdong province. An official news agency wrote "Six Xinjiang boys raped two innocent girls at the Xuri Toy Factory." It was found to be a hoax, but the rumour spread quickly through the Internet sparking a deadly clash between the Uighur workers and Han Chinese who fought each other with knives and metal pipes in which two Uighur labourers were reportedly killed and 118 injured.

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