IDSA Comments

Pakistan’s latest adventure across the International Border

Pakistan has yet again shown its proclivity to raise tensions with India. This time, the Pakistan Army or its proxies have fired three rockets across the International Border (IB) near Wagha in Punjab. Although no injuries were reported, such attacks pose a major danger to the people living in areas adjacent to the border, and some 150 farmers of the area indeed protested. This is the second time that rockets have been fired from Pakistan in the recent past.

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New Beginning in Islamic Republic

In a surprise move the Iranian parliament (Majles) approved 18 of the 21 nominees including that of a woman proposed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as members of his cabinet. Although Ahmadinejad had nominated three women candidates, parliament approved only one, that of Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi as the health minister. This is the first time that a woman has acquired a ministerial position in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Marzieh Vahid is a gynaecologist and obstetrician by profession.

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What do Chinese intrusions across the Line of Actual Control Tell India?

A number of Chinese border intrusions across the Line of Actual Control have been reported in recent months. One such event near Mount Gya in the Chumar sector of Ladakh saw Chinese troops intruding 1.5 kilometres inside Indian territory and writing “China” on the rocks with red paint. The intrusion was first noticed by an Indian patrol team on July 31, 2009. An earlier incident of Chinese intrusion in this area reportedly took place on June 21st, when two Chinese M1 helicopters violated the Indian airspace and air dropped canned food at Chumar.

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Re-visioning the Nuclear Command Authority

In a new book Nuclear Strategy: India’s March Towards a Credible Deterrent, Dr. Manpreet Sethi has recommended a restructuring of India’s Nuclear Command Authority. Since India’s nuclear doctrine is premised on ‘Assured Retaliation’, nuclear retaliatory attacks can only be authorised by the civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority. Presently, the Nuclear Command Authority, as approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security on 04 January 2003, stipulates:

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Warnings from Madhya Pradesh

A few weeks ago Sunday Express reported that the Madhya Pradesh Hunger Index at 30.9 was worse than that of Ethiopia. Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, its two neighbours, were only marginally better at 28.7 and 26.6 respectively. BBC had also brought out a similar report in October 2008. According to the report, the statistics came from the country’s Planning Commission and not from a local NGO and that the authorities were extremely alarmed. The state was ranked 11 in 1994 but has fallen to 17 in 2008.

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Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis May 2009

The month of May 2009 was the most violent month in Pakistan in the last five years. As the security forces launched a concerted operation against the Taliban in Malakand Division, the casualties shot up almost five times. The month recorded 504 violent incidents against 332 in April, which resulted in the loss of 2,585 lives. Most of the casualties were due to Operation Rah-e-Rast launched by the security forces in Swat and adjacent districts.

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Political Change in Japan: Implications for Foreign and Defence Policies

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), an ensemble of liberals and conservatives, has unseated the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) in the general elections held on August 30, ending the LDP’s almost half a century of uninterrupted rule over the country. Though the DPJ has been elected primarily because of people’s dissatisfaction with the LDP’s domestic and economic policies, it is likely to alter Japan’s foreign and defence policies.

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Demarcate the India-Nepal Border

Though tensions between India and Nepal over a few disputed pockets along the border have persisted for more than three decades, the first half of 2009 witnessed an increase in the frequency of border disputes. An obvious fallout of the disputes was the drumming up of anti-India feelings in Nepal and tension in bilateral relations.

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Tackling the Naxal Threat

With the killing of three women and a nine-year old girl, absurdly described as a police informer, the Naxals have lost any moral justification that they may have had to wage war against India. This heinous crime proves that their acts are much worse than the so-called police atrocities against which the Naxals claim they protect the people. This may be the last straw on an already overloaded government camel reeling under the burden of procrastination, confusion, weak governance and plain indecision.

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India’s response to the next terror attack

“There is credible information of ongoing plans of terrorist groups in Pakistan to carry out fresh attacks. The area of operation of these terrorists today extends far beyond the confines of Jammu & Kashmir and covers all parts of our country…In dealing with the terrorist challenge we need to be prepared for encountering more sophisticated technologies and enhanced capabilities.”

- PM’s speech at CM’s conference on internal security, 17 August 2009

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Iranian Upheaval and Implications for Indian Policy

Iran has unfortunately witnessed a deep political upheaval in the wake of recent Presidential elections leading to vertical polarization among its ruling elite between two major factions, one led by President Ahmadinejad and supported by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the other by opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi backed by big personalities and former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani. The conflict between the two elite factions is internally driven and one that is difficult to discern fully.

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Racial Profiling: An absurd drama

Incidents of racial profiling of Indian citizens at American airports have been reported time and again. The latest incident of ‘secondary questioning’ of a film star whom the United States embassy in New Delhi considers a ‘global icon’ and a welcome guest in the US, has once again brought to the fore the contentious practice of racial profiling in the name of effective counter-terrorism.

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The imperative of a national government in Nepal

Nepal Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who heads a twenty-two party coalition government, chose India for his first official foreign visit after assuming office two months back. This ‘goodwill’ visit was undertaken against the background of Nepal’s increasingly fragile peace process. The bilateral agenda was just a pretext. What brought him to New Delhi were several domestic factors. While this is not to say that there are no urgent bilateral issues between the two countries, the most crucial factor today is India’s support for Nepal’s coalition government.

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Afghan Presidential Elections: The Quest for Change

As a harbinger of change in a conflict ridden country, the Afghan presidential elections being held on August 20 are important for both the people of Afghanistan and the international community. Hamid Karzai’s government is seen as weak, ineffective and corrupt. During the last eight years, progress has not been commensurate with the people’s expectations. With rising insecurity and instability, the international community views a credible election as a key plank in the stabilisation of Afghanistan.

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Challenges Before New Government in Indonesia

A Constitutional court recently dismissed a petition about alleged electoral irregularities filed by opposition presidential candidates Megawati Sukarnoputri and Jusuf Kalla. The decision effectively clears the decks for a second term for the incumbent president Bambang Sushilo Yudhoyono. Both Megawati and Kalla registered complaints against voting list frauds and bogus voting in the constitutional court on July 28 and demanded reelection.

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Afghanistan: Stability on the Cheap?

Eight winters since the launch of Enduring Freedom, the turmoil in Afghanistan continues. When contrasted with the progress in Iraqi Freedom, the gloom only deepens. Having applied the necessary mid- course corrections to the ‘ wrong war ’ (Iraq), there is hope on the horizon; despite the Obama administration’s shift of gaze and focus to the ‘ right war ’ (Afghanistan) to include a renewed and reworked military thrust, the initiative continues to rest with the Taliban.

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India, Australia and ‘Curry Bashing’

In early August, India’s Minister for External Affairs S. M. Krishna visited Australia as part of his trip to attend the Pacific Island Forum meeting, held in Cairns. India is a dialogue partner to the Pacific Island Forum, comprising the countries of the South-west Pacific region, including Australia and New Zealand. Most of Mr. Krishna’s time during this trip went in visiting Melbourne and Sydney, where a number of Indian students had been attacked in recent months.

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Swine Flu: A National Security Issue

The security architecture of any state is normally based on traditional concepts like dealing with issues related to war and peace. This is no longer true in the 21st century when threats cannot be defined only in military terms. Swine flu pandemic is an example of this. Such threats demand solutions which lie beyond routine medical cure.

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