Kurt M Campbell et. al., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. R. R. Subramanian July 2004 Strategic Analysis
Cryptology, Digital Assassination and the Terrorism Futures Market A recent news item indicated that the US Government had been planning a website that would enable people to place bets on the likelihood of terrorist events. It was hoped that a study of market trends would enable intelligence agencies to anticipate and prevent such events. R. Sukumaran April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Proliferation Security Initiative: An Assessment Proliferation of WMDs is a grave threat to mankind, be it their flow to ‘irresponsible states’ or to terrorists. Charged by its perception of vulnerability, the US has initiated the Proliferation Security Initiative; seeking involvement of ‘key’ states for interdiction of ‘suspect ships’ at sea. In its present form, PSI is contrary to the principle of ‘Freedom of the Seas’. Further, its operational efficacy is doubtful and it has an escalatory potential. However, bilateral arrangements as an extension of PSI may lawfully supplement global non-proliferation efforts. Gurpreet S Khurana April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Energy and Security in a Changing World The centre of gravity of global economic growth is rapidly shifting to the Asian continent. The transition is led by China and India which have propelled themselves onto a robust growth trajectory to be fuelled by affordable energy supplies. These developments have been accompanied by a fortuitous but significant growth in the sources of global energy supply, thanks to the re-emergence of Russia as the new petrostate and the discovery of substantial energy deposits in the Caspian and Central Asian Republics. Sudha Mahalingam April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Pakistan’s ‘Sustainable Democracy’: Army as the Political Architect Any study of political developments in Pakistan cannot be complete without examining the role of the Army. Though it might seem incompatible to talk of military and democracy in the same breadth, Pakistan provides an example of how the military has been able to govern the country as successfully as a civilian government. It has its own view of democracy, political stability and governance. It feels it has a political role which stems from the national security paradigm of the state. Smruti S. Pattanaik April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Military Diplomacy Through Arms Transfers: A Case Study of China Military diplomacy has long been one of the essential constituents of international diplomacy and an effective method to foster bilateral and regional relationships. Arms transfers serve as an important foreign policy tool and have become, a crucial dimension of world politics. Conventional arms transfers entail not only the provision of weapons/ equipment but carry with them a number of military commitments that have long?term implications. The PLA has always had a significant role in shaping and implementing China's foreign policy. B. S. Sachar April 2004 Strategic Analysis
The Terror Scenario in Europe Suicide bombings in Jammu and Kashmir are patterned on Palestinian methods established that those actually originated in Europe and thus added an intriguing component to the Indian terror scenario. Mainly, the European intelligence agencies have closely observed the terror scenario in Europe as an international phenomenon, its causes, ramifications as well as the recruitment procedure. Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Whither the Look East Policy: India and Southeast Asia India’s policy with Southeast Asia, which took a distinctive shape since the early 1990s in the form of the Look East policy, has been a multipronged approach encompassing political, strategic and economic aspects. Apart from establishing institutional linkages with ASEAN and strengthening bilateral relations with its member states, especially in the field of defence, India has been an enthusiastic participant and supporter of multilateralism in Asia-Pacific. G. V. C. Naidu April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Indo-Pakistan Talks 2004: Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (NCBMs) and Kashmir After six years, in June 2004 India and Pakistan resumed the composite dialogue process that covers eight baskets of issues agreed upon in Male in 1997 between Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral and Nawaz Sharif. The eight baskets are Jammu and Kashmir; Siachen; Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project; Sir Creek; Terrorism and Drug Trafficking; Economic and Commercial Cooperation; Peace and Security; and Promotion of Friendly Exchanges in various fields. The last round of talks was held in October 1998 in Islamabad, on Peace and Security, CBMs and Jammu and Kashmir. Ashutosh Misra April 2004 Strategic Analysis
Karbi-Kuki Clashes in Assam Militant groups clashing among themselves for control over the public resources even at the cost of the rights of the local tribal or ethnic community they claim to be defending, is an important factor behind persistent inter-ethnic conflicts Praveen Kumar April 2004 Strategic Analysis
