Publication Filter

The Road to Copenhagen in December 2009 has two visible signposts. One that reads, ‘The time for climate change action is now’, the other that warns, ‘The road is bumpy’. The first signpost expresses the apocalyptic language that the earth's rising temperatures are poised to set off irreversible consequences if concrete steps are not taken quickly. It suggests that the climate is nearing tipping point. The second signpost forewarns that arriving at a bold, equitable, and binding treaty will not be easy and that the politics of climate change will undermine the science of climate change.

• Uttam Kumar Sinha |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

Linked to the terrorist goal of intimidation of a targeted population, there is an inherent objective to spread fear and undermine the declared values of the targeted political system by pushing a frightened society and government into overreaction. On the other hand, the counter-insurgent state wishes to downplay the impact of the terrorist attack and works towards keeping the morale of the population as well as the security forces intact. In this battle, the media plays an important and influential role.

• Shanthie Mariet D’Souza |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

A new actor was inducted in the decades-old Afghan conflict when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) assumed command of the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in August 2003. NATO's entry into the Afghan theatre took place in the backdrop of the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003. With the United States diverting its resources and greater attention to Iraq, NATO was to expand its operations throughout Afghanistan in support of the US-led coalition force in a phased manner.

• Vishal Chandra |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

Democracy came to Taiwan under the leadership of Chiang Ching-Kuo, which brought an end to almost four decades of one-party dictatorship. Chiang Kai?Shek had harboured the dream of overtaking the whole of China and establishing the rule of Kuomintang (KMT). But with the passage of time and a shift in the international political scenario, he realized that this would not be possible.

• Gunjan Singh |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article explains how growing economic interests have made China and India more prone to various non-traditional security threats in their neighbourhood. It examines whether this evolution has led both countries to mitigate their struggle for influence in favour of security cooperation, and found that despite shared security interests, China and India are not able to overcome mutual distrust. The conclusions are that the quest for short-term gains impedes substantial security cooperation and that economic ambitions have added new impetus to the regional struggle for influence.

• Jonathan Holslag |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article employs game theory to explain the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, seeking in particular to improve the understanding of why the Iraqi dictator chose a path of action that ultimately led to his downfall. The main argument is that Saddam Hussein lacked information about his opponent's payoffs and was lured by the possibility of becoming the undisputed leading figure of the Arabic world. The analysis shows that even if the threat of an allied attack in the end proved credible, Iraq could - quite rationally - have chosen to stand firm.

• Tor G. Jakobsen , Jo Jakobsen |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

One of the most notable attempts by Japan towards fostering regionalism in recent years has been through its active and positive participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS), envisioned to be a stepping stone towards the formation of an East Asian Community (EAC). The idea behind regionalism and efforts towards the EAS and EAC are to be perceived within the broader context of Tokyo's attempts to shape the regional environment and influence policies in the region. Its primary goal is to neutralize and dilute the influence of China.

• Arpita Mathur |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is emerging as a key anti-proliferation platform with a global reach. However, being a US-promoted initiative with a military dimension, the PSI is yet to gain a multilateral character and raises concerns among nations. While backing the further expansion of this initiative, President Barack Obama seeks its institutionalization and cooperative enhancement. India is exhorted to join this initiative as part of the strategic cooperation with the United States. However, India is yet to decide its approach towards the PSI owing to various concerns.

• A. Vinod Kumar |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

There has been a shift to a deterrent strategic doctrine with an offensive bias. India's strategic doctrine is thus potentially a compellent one. However, cognizance of the need for limitation to conflict in the nuclear age entails identification of the implications of compellence for both conventional and nuclear doctrines. On the conventional plane, the hiatus between pivot corps and strike corps offensives is taken as a key 'exit point' for war termination efforts.

• Ali Ahmed |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis

This article highlights the changing dynamics of relations between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army under the current leadership. While the military in China still remains politically loyal to the Communist Party, specification of the role of the military in the Chinese Constitution, generational changes in the CCP, factional politics, and relative depoliticization of the military are some of the factors suggesting a 'bifurcation' between the party and the military.

• Jagannath P. Panda |
• September 2009 |
• Strategic Analysis