US–India–China Relations in the Indian Ocean: A Chinese Perspective The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is becoming increasingly significant in the world arena, with the United States, India and China—the most important stakeholders in the region—playing substantial roles. Judging from the three countries' strategic thought, concerns, interests and power balances, it is the US–India potential competition for maritime dominance in the IOR that demands the most attention. However, competition does not mean confrontation. Lou Chunhao July 2012 Strategic Analysis
The US–India Nuclear Agreement: Revisiting the Debate The 2005 US—India nuclear pact created ripples of controversy and debates within in a short period of time. In the US, the nuclear agreement was weighed vis-à-vis the non-proliferation regime—does it strengthen or weaken the regime? On the contrary, in India concerns were raised regarding the implications for India's strategic as well as civilian nuclear programmes. This article highlights the disjuncture in the concerns raised in the US and India. Vandana Bhatia July 2012 Strategic Analysis
The Diamer Bhasha Dam in Gilgit Baltistan: India’s Concerns This article is an attempt to understand India's concerns over the Diamer Bhasha dam project within the overall ambit of India's approach towards Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). It makes a holistic assessment of the feasibility of the project, the political and technical issues involved in it, the long-term strategy of Pakistan and China in the region, and the local reactions, which must inform India's future policy preferences regarding PoK. The article is divided into three parts. Priyanka Singh July 2012 Strategic Analysis
Evaluating the Political and Economic Role of the IRGC The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is Iran's most powerful security and military organisation, responsible for the protection and survival of the regime. Over time, the IRGC has attained a position of dominance vis-à-vis the regular army (Artesh). In due course, the Guards have also been transformed into a leading political and economic actor. The major political role of the IRGC started with the election of the reformist presidency. However, the Guards' involvement in the Iranian economy began during Rafsanjani's presidency. M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi July 2012 Strategic Analysis
India’s Afghan Policy: Beyond Bilateralism The India–Afghanistan relationship is not a simple bilateral engagement. India's Afghan policy is driven by, and is dependent on, many extraneous factors such as India's troubled relationship with Pakistan, its search for a land transit to Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan and its concerns regarding use of Afghan territory by Pakistan to the detriment of Indian interests. Given the geographical constraints, India has relied on Iran for land access to Afghanistan. This has been complicated by Iran–US relations —the two countries with whom India shares common interests. Smruti S. Pattanaik July 2012 Strategic Analysis
Securing Central Asian Frontiers: Institutionalisation of Borders and Inter-state Relations This article develops the message that the artificially introduced administrative borders during the Soviet era, which were subject to the processes of re-delimitation after 1991, whether for reasons of security, administration, mutual distrust or the population's ethnic attachment, have become results and means of political manipulation and pressurisation. This has resulted in further pushing regional states to follow mutually exclusive policies. Timur Dadabaev July 2012 Strategic Analysis
Re-examining India’s Counterterrorism Approach: Adopting a Long View This article looks at the status quo of Indian counterterrorism policy—which largely favours ‘physical’ or ‘hard’ measures—and proposes that the government adopt a more holistic strategy. Termed ‘Countering Violent Extremism’, this would involve measures geared towards long-term prevention, with greater attention paid to the reasons for which people commit terrorism and to the impact of counterterrorism on communities. Ellie B. Hearne July 2012 Strategic Analysis
Political Decision-Making and Nuclear Retaliation Currently, India's nuclear doctrine is one of inflicting ‘unacceptable damage’ in case of nuclear first use against it or its forces anywhere. The problem with this is that at current levels of vertical proliferation it is liable to face a counter strike of equal proportions. This may not be in India's interests when viewed in relation to the inevitable setback to its trajectory of progress. Therefore, there is a case for terminating nuclear exchanges at the lowest possible level in case of nuclear first use of low opprobrium quotient or violence. Ali Ahmed July 2012 Strategic Analysis
Deliberating the Space Code of Conduct Ajey Lele argues that, in its present avatar, the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities is not capable of realizing its stated aim fully because it lacks an accountability mechanism. Ajey Lele June 29, 2012 Issue Brief
Pakistan Navy’s ‘Nuclear’ Aspirations Recent reports from Pakistan seem to suggest the Pakistan Navy (PN) may be on the cusp of developing a naval nuclear missile capability, even as its plans for acquiring a nuclear submarine capability gradually become clearer. Abhijit Singh June 29, 2012 IDSA Comments
