The discovery of extracting unconventional (shale) gas through hydraulic fracturing has revolutionised the gas industry in the US and has given rise to a debate over whether it has the potential to reverse the emerging geopolitical equations in the global energy sector which was hitherto seen to be tilting in favour of the conventional energy producers.
The oil-rich Middle East region is always seen as a politically volatile region, but it has been the source of crude oil supply to all major consumers worldwide for decades. The article makes an empirical analysis of the geopolitical risk of India's diversification portfolio, which is skewed towards the Middle East.
China is a thirsty country desperately in need of water—a lot of it. In order to meet its water and energy requirements in the densely populated and fertile northern plains, it is successively making interventions in the Tibetan rivers in the southern part through dams and diversions. While China is well within its riparian rights to do so, a set of externalities involving the principles of water-sharing and lower riparian needs—stretching from Afghanistan to Vietnam—raise concerns.
China is pursuing an energy policy to alleviate its import dependence, diversify the sources and routes of imported oil and prepare for supply disruption. China's import of hydrocarbons is growing rapidly. Besides sea transport from West Asia and other oil rich countries of both crude and liquefied natural gas, China has also identified diverse import routes for oil and gas by overland pipelines. Some projects are now complete and many are under construction or in the planning stage.
South Asian countries, and particularly India, are hydrocarbon-deficient, and given the pace of economic growth in many of these nations, all of them need huge energy resources to sustain their growth. In accordance with their diversification strategies as well as to enhance energy security they are considering alternate sources and means of imports, including via land pipelines.
India has announced ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy programme nearly 15 fold in the next 20 years, from the current 4,500 MWe to about 62,000 MWe by 2032. By 2020, India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) plans to install 20,000 MWe of nuclear power generation capacity (the fifth largest in the world). The department has plans beyond 2030 too. According to these plans India will have the capacity to produce 275 GWe (Giga Watt of electricity) of nuclear power by the year 2052.
The present energy crisis in Bangladesh is partly due to over-dependence on gas which fulfils more than 70 per cent of its energy needs. The present gas deficit against the national demand on a daily basis is expected to increase further in the future. The crisis will deepen unless a greater share of indigenous coal is included in the energy mix. The geological and social constraints of an over-populated fertile agricultural land area remain an obstacle to large-scale coal mining and this has to be addressed rationally.
Following the dispute over the seizure of a Chinese trawler and its crew by Japan in the disputed waters in the East China Sea believed to be rich in oil and gas resources, Beijing has been flexing its muscles against Tokyo in another area. However, this one may have far deeper consequences not only for Japan but for the rest of the world.
The latest addition to the Chinese ‘enigma’ is its oil potential. There have been various accounts, of late, in influential journals and important documents attempting to unravel the mystery surrounding Chinese oil. As it happens, most of them have helped only to further deepen it.
