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DTSTART:20160101T000000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20170522T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20170522T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T141511
CREATED:20231224T111004Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130738Z
UID:64458-1495431000-1495431000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Regional Outlook in the Horn of Africa
DESCRIPTION:Chair: Shri Jayant Prasad\, DG\, IDSA \nDr.  Andeab Ghebremeskel\, Director General of the Eritrean Centre for Strategic  Studies (ECSS) visited IDSA on May 22\, 2017.  \n  The  ECSS is a small government funded think tank based in Asmara\, Eritrea. They  have a staff of around 12 researchers and are mostly involved in tracking and  analyzing Eritrea’s foreign policy\, the developments of the Horn of Africa and  to a limited extent\, the domestic developments in the country. The main purpose  of Dr. Ghebremeskel’s visit  to the  institute was to speak on the topic Regional  Outlook in the Horn of Africa\, interact with IDSA scholars\, and understand  India’s perspective on China’s Belt-and-Road initiative (BRI).  \n  During  the interaction the following issues were discussed:  \nHorn of Africa\n  The  Horn of Africa consists of Eritrea\, Ethiopia\, Djibouti and Somalia. The Greater  Horn of Africa also includes Uganda\, Kenya and Democratic Republic of Congo.  The region is strategically important since it is close to the oil producing  region of Middle East. Approximately 40 per cent of oil produced in Middle East  crosses through the shipping lanes of Red Sea. Djibouti is the choke point on  this shipping route. It is due to this reason that countries like United  States\, France and China have a military base in Djibouti. Saudi Arabia and  Germany have also shown interest in establishing bases in the region.  \n  Countries  in the Horn of Africa have similarities in terms of ethnicity and culture. The  region is rich in minerals Gold\, Zinc and Hydrocarbons. However\, its mineral  wealth has not been a blessing\, rather it has been a curse since the oppressive  regimes in the region have not utilised the wealth for the welfare of the  citizens. The region has witnessed many famines.  \n  There  is a lack of unity among the countries of the Horn of Africa.  Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)\, which consists of Djibouti\,  Eritrea\, Ethiopia\, Kenya\, Somalia\, South Sudan\, Sudan and Uganda\, has been a  weak sub-regional organisation due to disagreements among member-states. The  conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia has been an enduring problem in the region.  In 2000\, there was a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia\, the effects of which are  being felt even now and constrained regional co-operation and development.  Peace was brokered between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Algeria and a peace  agreement was signed in presence of Algeria\, Britain and Germany. While Eritrea  has been following the terms of the agreement\, Ethiopia has been violating them  thereby escalating the conflict in the region. The other main conflict in the  region is the dispute over the waters of Nile River among the riparian states  of Sudan\, Egypt\, Ethiopia and Djibouti. This conflict has the potential of bringing  the region to war.    \nHorn of Africa and extra-regional powers\n  Being  strategically located on one of the busiest shipping routes\, the Horn of Africa  has seen the interest and interference by many external powers. The United  States\, France and China each have a military base in Djibouti. China had  offered to establish a base in Eritrea but the Eritrean government rejected the  offer. Due to its proximity to the Middle East\, any conflict in the Middle East  has an impact on the Horn of Africa region. Most recently\, the civil war in  Yemen has had an impact on the region with many GCC countries showing an  interest in establishing bases in the region. The United Arab Emirates (UAE)  has established a base in Eritrea. UAE has long term commercial interests in  the region and its military base is also a means of countering Chinese presence  in the region.     \nAl-Shabaab and ISIS\n  Al-Shabaab’s  influence has been curtailed by the presence of the forces under AMISOM  (African Union Mission in Somalia). The Al-Shabaab has resurfaced in some parts  as a result of Ethiopia withdrawing its forces from Somalia. The ISIS is also  prevalent in the region and there is a breakaway group of Al-Shabaab that has  sought allegiance with ISIS.  \nChina’s Belt-and-Road initiative and Africa\n  It  is still too early for Africa to make up its mind on BRI. Due to the FOCAC  (Forum on China-Africa Cooperation)\, Africa knows what China expects from  Africa. Africa needs not only hard infrastructure\, but also soft infrastructure. \nPiracy in the Horn\n  The  piracy in the Horn is unlikely to thrive again. The presence of multi-national  naval force in the region will keep a check on piracy. \nIndia’s perspective on Belt-and-Road initiative\n  India  was not opposed to Belt-and-Road initiative (BRI)\, its opposition is to the  aspect of BRI that impacts the sovereignty of India. The China Pakistan  Economic Corridor (CPEC) impinges on India’s sovereignty. OBOR is a  Sino-Centric initiative specifically targeted towards the development of  China’s western provinces\, to pull Chinese economy from the middle-income trap  and to shift from low-tech to high-tech production. Belt-and-Road circumvents  India and only touches its periphery. The Belt-and-Road is not only about  geo-economics but it aims to transform the geopolitical balance by connecting  Xinjian to Persian Gulf by Gwadar port and thereby giving China an ability to  have two ocean navy. This dimension of BRI  has to be carefully accessed.  \n(Prepared  by Nachiket Khadkiwala\, Research Assistant)
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/regional-outlook-in-the-horn-of-africa
CATEGORIES:ROUND TABLES / WORKSHOPS
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://idsa.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/no_photo-200x150-2.jpg
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