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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090206T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090206T053000
DTSTAMP:20261105T184220
CREATED:20231223T222331Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250311T050755Z
UID:63725-1233898200-1233898200@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Bioterrorism led by Professor Dean Wilkening
DESCRIPTION:IDSA organized a round table on the subject of bioterrorism on February 6\, 2009. The main speaker at the event was Prof. Dean Wilkening\, Director\, Science Programme at Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)\, Stanford University. \n    In his presentation Prof. Dean pointed out that biological weapons would be suitable for the new brand of terrorism\, which comprises mostly of religious\, nihilist\, and millenarian groups.\n     These groups were less constrained than their predecessors in terms of means and ends.\n      Certain biological agents could be more lethal than chemical agents.\n       The use of highly effective aerial methods of disseminating biological agents results\n        in a high psychological impact.  \n\n\n    Some of the factors influencing the consequences of air- borne release of biological agents were delineated — deposition in lower respiratory tract\, atmospheric transport\, agent characteristics and protection measures. \n    Past incidents of bioterrorism\, in particular the case of Aum Shinrikiyo\, were discussed at length. It was also mentioned that while non-state actors might encounter hurdles in acquiring and using biological agents\, state sponsored acts of biological terrorism are more possible. \n    Prof. Wilkening shared the information gathered after a simulation exercise that was conducted to ascertain the number of people who would be affected by exposure to biological agents. It was found out that the spectrum of biological threat is very broad. With a band of possibility of attacks\, the number of people affected might range from 100 to one million (contingent on the infectious dosage and the agent characteristics\, etc). One of the important findings of this study was that uncertainty with regards to biological agents\, their use\, and effects is far greater than that of any other weapon. This makes them most suitable weapons of terror. \n    While discussing the various strategies of coping with bioterrorism\, four major elements were brought out. These were diplomacy\, deterrence\, pre-emption/counterforce\, and defence. The element of defence was further divided into active and passive components\, with elements of safety for covert delivery of biological agents forming part of active defence and measures for civil defence a part of passive defense. The various stages of biodefense that were outlined included pre-attack vaccination\, agent detection and identification\, post-attack medical response and post-attack decontamination. It was brought out that the guiding philosophy for US biodefence is to focus on programmes and activities with public health benefits. The biodefence timeline in US policy comprises of various stages. Detection and identification within 24 hours of the outbreak of disease\, providing medical logistics in the first 48 hours\, prophylaxis campaign spread over the next 2 days and finally the last stage of decontamination comprising of 4 to 6 days. \n    The problem of differentiating between deliberate and natural outbreak of disease was discussed in detail. Prof. Wilkening talked about bioforensics. This is an upcoming science\, used extensively by centres like NBACC’s National Bioforensic Analysis Center (NBFAC). Bioforensic analysis of evidence is conducted from a biocrime or terrorist attack to attain a “biological fingerprint” to help investigators identify perpetrators and determine the origin and method of attack. \n    Towards the end of the meeting the need to develop simulation models that pertains to the Indian context was articulated. For institutes that focus on security and strategic studies\, there would be significant interest in exploring the non-public health aspects related to bioterrorism. In addition\, the necessity to enhance inter-agency cooperation in India and tap existing talent in the field of biological weaponry and related issues to develop a better understanding of the subject was highlighted. \n    Prepared by Dr. Monalisa Joshi\, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/bioterrorism-led-by-professor-dean-wilkening
CATEGORIES:ROUND TABLES / WORKSHOPS,EVENT REPORT
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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090212T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090212T053000
DTSTAMP:20261105T184220
CREATED:20231223T222331Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130743Z
UID:63724-1234416600-1234416600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Defence Doctrine in the Indo-Pak Context
DESCRIPTION:On 12 February 2009\, the Military Affairs Cluster organised a Round Table to discuss Defence Doctrines. The aim was to reflect on implications of inter-relatedness of conventional and nuclear doctrines in the India-Pakistan context. A presentation was made by Ali Ahmed\, Research Fellow\, IDSA\, to flag the issues and elicit views of the participants. Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. Patankar and Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V.K. Kapoor participated in the discussion along with representatives of service HQs and members of the Cluster. The Military Cluster Coordinator\, Dr Thomas Mathew\, Deputy Director General\, chaired the three hours long session. \nThe issues reflected on included the doctrines of the three services and the joint doctrine\, the nuclear doctrine and the interrelatedness of doctrines at the conventional and nuclear levels. Implications of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold for conventional doctrine and the impact on India’s nuclear doctrine were also discussed. Alternative nuclear doctrines such as ‘flexible’ nuclear retaliation options and the Sundarji nuclear doctrine were reflected upon. Credibility issues centred on India’s nuclear doctrine of ‘massive’ punitive retaliation against first strike/first use were also dwelt on. India’s possible responses to future terrorist attacks like the Mumbai carnage were discussed in the context of the escalatory ladder that would attend resort to the military option. Pakistan’s resort to Asymmetric War strategies in the face of India’s conventional operations and its counter were also covered. The discussion was stimulating and fresh perspectives were offered by participants. \nThe following points\, among others\, emerged: \n\nA degree of ambiguity attending nuclear doctrine is essential for its credibility.\nThe military option cannot be ruled out in face of future provocative terrorist attacks originating in Pakistan. The military means will have to be calibrated against political objectives required to be achieved.\nSince India regards nuclear weapons as political weapons meant for deterrence\, limitation to conflict before it reaches the nuclear level has been accepted in India’s Limited War doctrine. This would entail communication to the adversary and keeping communication channels open in conflict.\nJointness in military operations would be essential in any future military conflict.\nThe emerging instability in Pakistan would require close monitoring on India’s part and a strategy has to be evolved in conjunction with the international community to respond to it. The objective of terrorists and their backers in the Pakistan establishment to initiate a conflict between India and Pakistan so as to derail the GWOT would require to be guarded against.\n\nPrepared by Ali Ahmed\, Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/defence-doctrine-in-the-indo-pak-context
CATEGORIES:ROUND TABLES / WORKSHOPS,EVENT REPORT
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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090220T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090220T053000
DTSTAMP:20261105T184220
CREATED:20231223T222326Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130743Z
UID:63721-1235107800-1235107800@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Indo-Bangladesh: Opportunities Ahead
DESCRIPTION:The spectacular victory of the Awami League-led Grand Coalition in the Ninth Jatiya Sangsad elections held on December 29\, 2008 marks a landmark development in the annals of Bangladesh. This offers an important opportunity for India to shore up the recent gains in bilateral relations and take them to a new trajectory. After a period of prolonged indifference during the tenure of the previously elected government\, the 23-month tenure of the caretaker government saw relations progressing considerably. Though several bilateral issues remain unresolved\, the general atmosphere has been congenial for both sides to address some of the problems that were plaguing bilateral relations. \nThe Awami victory cannot be more opportune. Historically\, bilateral relations have improved considerably when the Awami League has been in power. Both sides have been understanding and accommodative of each other’s concerns and problems. The majority secured by the Awami-led coalition would enable Bangladesh to address some of the critical bilateral issues. This would require foresight and deftness on the part of India to capitalise on the opportunity to tackle critical problems facing it. \nThe Awami League manifesto\, amongst other issues\, highlights some of these foreign policy aspects as its area of focus: \n\nBangladesh will take an active role in the preservation of world peace. An independent foreign policy will be pursued in adherence to the principles of “Friendship with all and malice towards none.” Friendly relationship will be maintained with India\, Nepal\, Bhutan and Myanmar\, neighboring countries\, in the context of further strengthening cooperation with all. Regional and sub-regional cooperation will be further strengthened including relationships with the member countries of SAARC\, BIMSTEC and D-8.\nCooperation will be deepened and expanded with developed countries including USA\, European Union\, Japan and Canada. Friendly relations will be strengthened with Russia\, China and member states of ASEAN.\n      Initiatives will be taken for enhancing and deepening the relationship with Australia and the Pacific countries.\nFraternal relationship with the countries of the Middle East including Saudi Arabia\, Egypt\, Palestine\, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait as well as Turkey\, Malaysia and Indonesia will be maintained. Solidarity with the Muslim Ummah and economic cooperation within the framework of OIC will be enhanced. Steps will be taken for establishing fruitful relationship with the countries of Africa and South America. A South Asian Task Force will be formed for meeting the challenge of terrorism and militancy. \n\nThe round table addressed the following questions: \n\nWhat is the way forward? Should India be proactive with the Hasina government or will such a course embarrass her? Or\, should India let the Hasina government find its own level of comfort and not force the pace?\nShould India suggest a friendship treaty with Bangladesh?\nShould there be a composite dialogue with Bangladesh?\nShould India suggest a structure of dialogue with annual summit meetings?\nHow should India meet Bangladesh’s concerns?\nShould India develop links with other political parties in Bangladesh?\n\nThe bilateral issues and questions raised above were discussed and debated and although no firm consensus emerged the final recommendations that were arrived at were: \nPolitical\n\nIndia needs to engage with Bangladesh\, but keeping the expectations of the common people from Awami League (AL) in mind. The AL government will have to focus on delivering its promises to its people. Main concerns for Awami League are domestic issues. A gradual process of engaging Bangladesh should be adopted.\nQuiet diplomacy with Bangladesh should be at the forefront. India should support Awami League fulfil its manifesto promises.\n‘Awami League is pro-India’ and ‘anti Bangladesh’ was a myth created by the BNP/Jamat. Victory of AL has illustrated that people of Bangladesh accept India.\nIndia should keep the option open for engaging with the opposition. Maintaining good relationship with the BNP is important.\n\nSecurity /Military\n\nSecularism and civil-military relations are two themes significant for India’s understanding while handling Bangladeshi politics. All security issues in Bangladesh are monopolized by the army. ULFA nexus with the army should be probed further.\nEstablishing good relations with the Army is in India’s security interest. Institutionalize army-to-army relations between India and Bangladesh.\nMigration and operational help to insurgent groups in Bangladesh are two important concerns for India and should be tackled systematically.\nThere is a problem of perception between the two countries. While India perceives Bangladesh as an infiltrator\, and a safe zone for Muslim extremism\, Bangladesh perceives India as a hegemon\, an upper riparian state aggravating flood management problems in Bangladesh. Also\, India is perceived as a safe haven for Bangladeshi criminals.\nA cost benefit analysis in political and economic terms should be made on fencing of Indian borders as the record shows that fencing has been fairly ineffective in the past years.\nDiplomacy with Bangladesh can at best be effective at people to people level. Illegal migration related to human trafficking is a significant issue. Trafficking of women and children has been taken up by BNP earlier\, perhaps India could engage Bangladesh on such issues.\n\nEconomic\n\nIndia needs to balance the security and economic equations with Bangladesh.\nFocus should be more towards implementing the agreements we have with Bangladesh.\nAt present the trade deficit between the two countries is glaring. While a free trade agreement with Bangladesh at the outset seems to be an attractive option\, studies have shown that free trade over a long period of time would increase the deficit between the two countries.\nOne should avoid the word ‘transit’ when negotiating with Bangladesh. Four issues related to transit are air\, land\, rail and water. India should primarily focus on water and rail issues.\nThe Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade\, signed in 1972\, should be revisited. India does not need to negotiate with Bangladesh on these issues. Implementation of the agreements should be the main focus.\nWater issues are the central concern for the Hasina government. India should focus on this issue. Focus on de-silting and dredging of river waters along with management of water resources should be the key focus.\nWater is one issue that can be jointly taken up by both governments. Joint management of water resources is therefore extremely important.\nBus services should be made regular and Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala uninterrupted bus service should be made operational.\nRail transit should focus on making beneficial rail agreements. Rails are the biggest strength of the Indian economy. In fact\, rail transit can never be effective unless we modernize Bangladesh’s railways. India should offer a package including training programmes as Bangladesh railways are keen in cooperating with India on the issue.\nIssue of waster resources should be solved. A main problem is that India considers the Brahmaputra basin as one\, whereas Bangladesh demands that there should be three different basins of Ganga\, Meghna and Brahmaputra. Examine multilateral solutions. Water problems in Bangladesh are inevitably linked to the issue of Climate Change.\nInstead of taking issues bilaterally\, regional focus should be brought in\, where India\, Bhutan and Nepal could jointly benefit from the exercise. \n\nParticipants in the roundtable were: N.S. Sisodia\, Arvind Gupta\, Sreeradha Datta\, Smruti Pattanaik\, Anand Kumar\, Sumita Kumar\, Alok Bansal\, Vishal Chandra\, Nihar Nayak\, M. Mayilvaganan\, Medha Bhist\, PK Gautam\, Stobdan Phunchak\, Veena Sikri\, Partha Ghosh\, J.N.Roy\, Ashish Banerjee and Nityananda \nPrepared by Dr. Sreeradha Datta with inputs from Dr. Medha Bisht.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/indo-bangladesh-opportunities-ahead
CATEGORIES:ROUND TABLES / WORKSHOPS,EVENT REPORT
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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090227T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20090227T053000
DTSTAMP:20261105T184220
CREATED:20231223T222322Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130743Z
UID:63717-1235712600-1235712600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Mr. Bolat Nurgaliev\, Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
DESCRIPTION:The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses organised a round table interaction with Bolat Nurgaliev\, Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on February 27\, 2009. During his visit he deliberated upon important issues like the current status of the SCO\, role of observer states and the question of the SCO’s expansion\, economic cooperation within the framework of the organisation\, and its current strategy for cooperation in the energy sector. He also dwelt on the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and its negative effect on neighbouring states. The limitations and problems faced by the SCO were also highlighted by the Secretary General. \nThe Secretary General said that the Afghanistan issue has continued to be on the agenda of SCO meetings. Member countries have been keen to help Afghanistan because peace and stability there is in their interest. However\, any physical involvement by the SCO in Afghanistan has not been contemplated so far. He informed that the SCO will shortly be organising a conference on Afghanistan in Russia as discussed in the previous SCO summit meeting. The conference would aim to assess the seriousness of the problem in Afghanistan with focus on terrorism and drug trafficking and to analyse the possible options to address the aforesaid issues. Senior government officials would be participating in this conference. India will be one of the participating countries. \nDuring the discussion\, it was articulated that Afghanistan has been the play ground for India\, Persia and Central Asia\, where these powers have sought to establish control. Today\, Pakistan wants to dominate Afghanistan. However\, it was only India which can establish strong economic linkages with Afghanistan because of its economic potential. It was pointed out that trading with India will bring about economic prosperity to Afghanistan. Therefore\, it is important for India and Pakistan to work together to bring stability in Afghanistan. \nOn cooperation between the SCO and Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) he said that both organisations have a working engagement. While the CSTO is mainly a military political bloc\, SCO is an organisation addressing security and economic cooperation among member states. What CSTO lacks is the Chinese component. He also ruled out the possibility of the SCO turning into a military bloc. \nIn response to a question on energy competition in the Eurasian region and SCO’s role in this sector\, he said that some member states have energy resources while others are transit countries for the supply of these resources. Therefore\, energy cooperation remains an important issue for SCO member countries. However\, progress in the area of setting up an energy club has not achieved much success. There is a difference of opinion on the issue of how to cooperate with each other within the SCO framework. While some members want the creation of an energy club\, others emphasise on formulating an SCO energy strategy. Some others are of the opinion that before formulating a regional energy strategy it would be important to formulate a national energy strategy. He said that as heads of States want to focus on the energy issue there is a possibility that in the long run SCO will be able to formulate a common energy strategy acceptable to all member states. \nOn the speculation about the possibility of SCO+3\, the Secretary General said that under the current situation this was not possible. So far the United States has been watching the activities of the SCO from a distance but has not approached it officially for any kind of engagement. As for Japan\, it was not keen to be in SCO. There is a Japan-Central Asia Dialogue under which it cooperates with Central Asian countries. This was\, in fact\, a response to SCO activities. \nOn the issue of expansion\, he said that currently the SCO remains an open organisation. But at the same time it is undergoing a process where the criteria of including new members is being formulated. However\, on the issue of observer status to new countries\, their numbers would not be allowed to exceed that of full member states. He said that during the forthcoming June summit of SCO\, some rules for the role of observer countries will be adopted. \nOn India’s role in the SCO\, he said that the SCO expects India to play an important role in establishing peace and security in this region. He said that India has expressed desire to participate in political\, economic and security arena but not officially applied for a full membership to the SCO. He said that Turkey has shown some interest to be involved in specific projects with the SCO. \nEconomic cooperation within the SCO framework has been the focus of member countries. Several steps have been taken up in this direction. During the Dushanbe Summit meeting an MOU on partnership relations between the Interbank Association of the SCO and Eurasian Development Bank was signed. In this context member countries have come to the stage of selecting major projects which need to be undertaken in the region. Most countries have been interested in infrastructure projects like building of roads and tunnels. It was pointed out that the SCO was close to creating a development fund. In this context it was highlighted that legal rules need to be created for any kind of financial cooperation. \nHighlighting the limitations and problems of the SCO\, the Secretary General said that there was a need to perfect the organisational structure and continue to build political trust among member states. It was noted that some times a gap between decision making and actual implementation of projects taken up by the SCO delays the whole process. Often priority placed on national interest by individual member states creates a problem for any forward movement of the organisation. He stated that the current financial crisis will have some impact on various economic projects taken up by member countries of the SCO. \nPrepared by Dr. Meena Singh Roy\, Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/mr-bolat-nurgaliev-secretary-general-of-the-shanghai-cooperation-organisation
CATEGORIES:ROUND TABLES / WORKSHOPS,EVENT REPORT
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