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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140502T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140502T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T165156
CREATED:20231223T133406Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130238Z
UID:63098-1399008600-1399008600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:The ULFA\, the PLA\, and the UNLF: Will negotiations Work?
DESCRIPTION:Chair: Shri E N Ram MohanExternal Discussants: Dr M Amarjeet Singh and Mr Bidhan S LaishramInternal Discussants: Ms Shruti Pandalai and Ms Gulbin Sultana \nThe paper aims to understand whether the peace negotiations with the armed groups\, i.e.\, the UNLF and the PLA of Manipur\, are viable\, and also underlines the debates generated in Assam as a result of the peace negotiations with the ULFA.  \nThe author argues that within the framework of peace negotiations\, it is important to understand the discourse that exists in these societies before negotiating with the armed groups. This is because protracted conflicts play a very significant role in determining the kind of debates that take place in the public sphere. The process of identity formation\, for instance\, would depend on the conflict that an individual has witnessed over time. Taking the Naga peace process into consideration\, a major reason for its efficacy was due to the discourse that existed in the civil society\, i.e.\, one in which the people were demanding that the armed groups should go for peace talks to end the restrictions of the AFSPA in the state. Along with this\, the NSCN (IM) felt that the status quo was not in their favour\, and for its leaders\, projecting the peace process at a high level of visibility was itself an achievement. \nThe situation in Manipur and Assam is very different as compared to this. One reason why the peace process is so problematic is because of existing categorizations of friend and enemy that have been the basis of identity of an individual from the beginning\, which consequently are very difficult to counter. The public discourses in these societies are very narrow and full of assumptions that result in the use of a particular kind of language to describe the other. Let us take a few examples of these existing discourses: \n\nThe Meitei public discourse is energized by a language of seeing themselves as different and alienated\, such that their rights are threatened by other communities and also by the Indian state. This identity and discourse is projected in the two armed groups of Manipur\, the UNLF and PLA. \nThe ULFA discourse also projects the discourse of Assam\, i.e.\, the resources of Assam are not used for purposes that will benefit its people. Additionally\, it questions the basis of Assamese annexation given that the Treaty of Yandaboo of 1826 did not include the Ahom king and was only signed between the Burmese and the British army. \nThe Tangkhul discourse focuses on maintaining their uniqueness and denies the existence of pluralism in its society vis-à-vis the Meiteis. This discourse of difference is evident\, such that an acceptance of the Meiteis would question their demand of a separate state. \n\nTherefore\, given these existing discourses it becomes very disorienting for the armed groups to have peace talks with the government. A ceasefire with the state would pose a question to their authenticity and would mean changing their entire frame of reference. In order to deal with this problem\, it becomes important to begin by challenging these existing discourses of difference. And to counter these exclusivist categorizations\, new frames have to come into existence. \nAlong with these there are other specific challenges that need to be considered. In the ULFA case\, the group has been involved in peace talks with the Government of India since 2011. However\, the legitimacy of these talks has been questioned as most of the leaders who were brought to the table were arrested\, and hence ‘coerced’ into the peace process. Another challenge to the peace talks is the anti-talk faction of Paresh Barua who is not willing to join the negotiations. While looking at the UNLF and PLA’s contention for peace talks\, the most important challenge is an embedded belief that the peace negotiation process is not about conflict transformation or about dealing with the root causes of the problem\, but only a counter-insurgency strategy. They feel it is to ensure the group gets divided\, weakened and militarily dominated. \nTo counter these challenges\, it is important to ensure a significant pre-negotiations stage. Such a stage would involve:  \n\nA common understanding of the problem between the government and the armed group\nIdentifying leaders or cadres who would be willing to talk or might influence the top leader\nUse of back channel negotiations\, i.e.\, use of government negotiators to talk actively with the armed group without much of media coverage. This is a significant tool for conflict resolution\, however\, a drawback of this is that the groups that may not be involved might act as spoilers to the process. \n\nIt is also important to remember that negotiations are complex and susceptible to transformation. Four things that are important for the success of a negotiation process are – leadership; the right kind of incentive structures and a common vision; institutional structures that enable the negotiations to succeed; and finally the right kind of implementation.  \nKey points that were raised during the discussion:\n\nIn Manipur\, there are various overarching factors that hinder the negotiations between the government and the armed groups. This includes a lack of seriousness on both the sides as both consider status quo as beneficial to them. \nWhile it is true that ethnic identities are being proliferated in the North East\, one must also carefully consider the reasons behind this proliferation – structural as well as political. \nPeace processes are empowering and disorienting. In order to know the reason why the armed groups are not ready for peace talks\, it would be crucial to look into the question as to why is the disorienting part of the peace process more deterring than the empowering part. \nThere is a need to address issues of narrow political discourses within the North East and the absence of informed debate/consciousness on these issues in the rest of the country. \nNarratives that have become the base of grievances of armed groups need to be counter challenged. \nThere exists a need to challenge the lack of response of the Indian state and the issue of racist administrative behaviour that has been a cornerstone in terms of the way Indian establishment behaves with the people in the North East. \nOver time\, there has been a shift of the focus of the armed groups from the ideologies they were formed with\, towards increasing criminal activities. \nIt is important to create more employment opportunities and encourage people to people contact between the population in the North East and the rest of the country. \nReport prepared by Ms. Husanjot Chahal
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/the-ulfa-the-pla-and-the-unlf-will-negotiations-work
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://idsa.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/no_photo-200x150-2.jpg
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140502T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140502T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T165156
CREATED:20231223T133406Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130238Z
UID:63099-1399008600-1399008600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Egypt’s Faltering Transition: Domestic and Regional Dynamics and Challenges for India
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Ambassador Arundhati GhoseExternal Discussants: Shri Sanjay Singh and Professor Gulshan DietlInternal Discussants: Dr P K Pradhan and Ms Ruchita Beri \nThe paper is an attempt to analytically examine the intricacies of Egypt’s transition\, its domestic-regional dynamics and nature of Indo-Egyptian relations. In the introductory remarks\, author briefly discussed Egypt’s geographic\, demographic\, civilizational and geo-political significance and highlighted Egypt’s centrality in West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region’s strategic landscape.  \nAuthor raised four concise research questions which form the major premise of this study; Factors responsible for faltering transition\, Major domestic stake-holders in Egypt’s transition\, External factors influencing the Egyptian transition and reverberations of transition on the region\, and India’s key interests in Egypt.   \nIn the first section\, author identified four factors responsible for the flawed transition of Egypt. As per author’s contentions\, SCAF in its short political existence of sixteen months failed to address the popular demands of Egyptians and thus its political miscalculation proved to be an obstruction in Egypt’s democratic ambitions. Author further elaborated how multiple elections and constitutional referenda post-2011 created an element of ambiguity and frustration\, and led to a directionless transition. The third factor responsible for transition’s failure was Muslim Brotherhood’s confusion\, contradiction and hurry in managing the new democratic Egypt. Lastly\, with reference to certain important economic variables\, author affirmed that deplorable economic conditions and inability to revive the Egyptian economy further impeded the transitional movement.  \nIn the next section\, author dealt with the major domestic players involved in writing the script of Egypt’s transition. Role played by Egyptian Armed forces\, Political parties (Muslim Brotherhood\, Islamic and secular political parties) and Youth Movements (April 6 movement\, Revolutionary Youth Coalition\, Tamarod) was analytically elaborated by the author. \nThird section of the paper was centered on external dynamics of the transition. Author classified the influences under two major sub-heads; Regional and extra-regional camps. Based on ideological differences and state of diplomatic relations\, author established that Saudi-UAE-Kuwait formed the Anti-Muslim brotherhood lobby\, and Turkey-Iran-Qatar group was labelled as the Pro Muslim Brotherhood camp. Under Extra-regional stake holders\, the case of Russia and U.S. was studied in greater detail. To evaluate Egypt’s impact on the region\, author studied the spread of Political Islam emanating from Egyptian territory\, reaction of neighbours such as Iran and Turkey\, probable trade-effects along Suez Canal and changing US policies.  \nLast section of the paper focused on Indo-Egyptian relations by examining the cultural\, civilizational\, diplomatic\, and economic-trade linkages. Special emphasis was laid on nature of bilateral ties in face of the Arab Spring. In conclusion\, author emphatically articulated Egypt’s importance for India and deliberated upon challenges facing New Delhi while dealing with changing regimes in Cairo. \nShri Sanjay Singh congratulated the author for producing a well-structured and analytically sound paper. He stated that developments in WANA region deserve a more detailed mention in the introduction section of the paper to place Egypt in the regional context. He further suggested the author to examine the impact of Iran P5+1 talks and Iraq elections on Egypt. He appreciated author’s detailed analysis of Muslim Brotherhood’s role in Egyptian transition and asked the author to further address intra Muslim Brotherhood clefts. Furthermore\, Shri Sanjay Singh highlighted the centrality of domestic economic forces in shaping the transition. Lastly\, it was stated that even though Egypt is important to India\, GCC remains the centre of attention and thus labelling Egypt as the “vital cog” in India’s foreign policy matrix seemed to be an exaggeration.  \nProf. Gulshan Dietl appreciated the cogent and focused study undertaken by the author. She opined that the three years of turbulence have changed the status quo in Egypt and thus the argument that “Egypt is back to square one” remains contestable. While commenting on Egypt’s contemporary relevance\, Prof Dietl mentioned that Cairo as headquarters of Arab league exemplifies Egypt’s centrality to the West Asian region. Additionally\, author was urged to examine the role of Egyptian films and TV in evoking and influencing the public sentiment\, in order to catch the pulse of Egyptian revolution.  \nMs. Ruchita Beri acknowledged author’s efforts. She mentioned that though Egypt geographically falls under the African continent\, Egyptians generally alienate themselves from their African identity. She suggested that the author accommodate the issue of Egypt’s participation in the African Union within the subject-matter of this paper\, and also briefly examine Sino-Egypt trade relations.  \nDr. P.K. Pradhan complimented the author. A succinct reference to Elie Kedourie’s work on Arab political culture was made to suggest that reminiscence of Mubarak still echoes across Egypt\, even after his ouster from Egyptian political theatre. Sharing his insights on military dominance in Egypt\, Dr. Pradhan asserted that even though the military leader has been removed\, the institutional structures remain intact. He agreed with the author’s contention that military will dominate the domestic politics\, and civilian misrule will not be tolerated by military in Egypt.  \nAmb. Arundhati Ghose: The neutral\, non-judgmental and objective approach of the paper was highly appreciated by Amb Ghose. The author was advised to include “people or masses” as another major internal player in Egyptian transition. Demographic profiling of protestors while examining the youth movements was strongly recommended. Amb Ghose emphatically stated that jihadis have contributed to the failure of transition\, and thus the role of Jihadi elements in shaping the transition deserves a mention\, if not detailed scrutiny.  \nThe discussion was followed by comments and questions from the floor. The need to examine the future of Egypt was underlined; in order to extrapolate whether Egypt will deteriorate into a failed state or will it bounce back and retain its influence on the region. Questions were raised on US policy towards Egypt post-Mubarak and Israeli view of Arab Spring and Egyptian transition. The issue of Egypt’s excessive dependence on foreign funds was debated and the need to study economic dynamics of Egyptian transition was duly acknowledged.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/egypts-faltering-transition-domestic-and-regional-dynamics-and-challenges-for-india
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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