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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T214303
CREATED:20231223T222003Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:63673-1264743000-1264743000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Climate Change\, Environmental Degradation\, Tibet and Implications for South Asian Security
DESCRIPTION:The paper presenter’s aim was to create a new discourse that treats Tibet as a regional\, if not a global\, commons that has wide-ranging implications for all of South Asia from being a source of many important rivers to controlling the Monsoons. Such a discourse that highlights Tibet as being crucial for a wider humanity will put pressure on China to review its activities in Tibet which is resulting in severe ecological degradation. The most pressing problem seems to be the impact on the rivers that flow downwards into the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia which will all face a considerable reduction in runoff with the receding of glaciers.  \nThe speaker looked at the following 3 aspects through the course of his paper: \n\nThe impact of human activity in Tibet and the changing climate on the countries dependent on this ecosystem.\nThe diversion of rivers originating in Tibet by China.\nPolicies for co-operation and peaceful resolution of conflict.\n\nWhile elaborating on the first point\, it was pointed out how the urbanization of Tibet with infrastructure building\, extension of railways and roads\, and conversion of grasslands will result in demographic changes that will impact the local ways of living. All these factors will\, in turn\, change the nature of the local ecosystem. For example\, the nomads’ lifestyle ensured that the delicate balance of the fragile ecosystem was not disturbed.  \nGlaciers are an important aspect of this ecosystem. However\, there is much contention over whether or not they are melting at a rapid rate (or melting at all). This is due to a dearth of information or facts regarding them. India has around 9\,575 glaciers but research has been done on only 25-30 of them. Thus\, the difficulty of drawing any definite conclusions. However\, the presenter insisted that the people of the Himalayas have noticed the change and he quoted Chewang Norphel who said “I am the scientific data”\, i.e. one doesn’t need a scientific authority to certify what is obvious to the people living there.”    \nDiversion of rivers and construction of dams by the Chinese on rivers like Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) or the tributaries of Indus and Sutlej will adversely affect the lower riparian states. China’s increased control of river water will mean an increased security threat for the others. \nThe speaker asserted that a major obstacle to studying the impact of the diversion of rivers is posed by the lack of scientific data that is available in the public domain. The lack of transparency in terms of information results in analysts having to make intelligent guesses. \nIncorporating China in the Indus Water Treaty is one of the solutions proposed for peaceful co-operation as well as a consolidated effort by all the countries of the region to conduct scientific studies on the environmental degradation of the ecosystem caused due to man-made activity and climate change. \nUltimately\, the crux of the presenter’s argument was that a discourse that regards Tibet as a regional (or global) common should be created in order to prevent any adverse effects on other lower riparian countries that would result from unilateral Chinese diversion of rivers in Tibet. \nShri M.S. Menon made some pertinent observations on the issues brought up in this paper. Most importantly he highlighted the confusion regarding global warming\, climate change\, and glacier melts since the causes and effects are “not very clear”. Not to mention\, scientific data can be manipulated to suit particular agendas. He also pointed out that studies regarding the role vegetation cover (including that in Tibet) plays on monsoons are incomplete.  \nThe presenter’s fear of Chinese diversion of rivers and its security implications were reinforced by Shri Menon. Unlike B.G. Verghese who claims that it is near impossible for China to divert water from these rivers due to the terrain\, Menon asserted that China was more than capable of accomplishing such a feat. His remedy for this problem is that India should build a dam in Arunachal Pradesh in order to control the flow of the Brahmaputra. \nThe lack of data on the water flow of rivers should also be addressed. In border areas where civilians are not allowed\, the army should step in to take measurements. In terms of exchange of data between India and China\, the best area to bring up this issue would be in forums concerning biodiversity since they are signatories of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and project an image of concern for the environment in this regard. He also supported the idea of a reworked IWT that included China. \nDr. A.P. Dimri discussed the technical aspects of climate change and how the Himalayas play a major role in controlling the monsoons\, which is why the topography of Tibet should be looked at in more detail. He also talked about the need to look at regional dynamics of climate change. Cycles of heating and cooling have always existed\, however\, what we should be worried about is the anthropogenic forces that are contributing to climate change.  \nThe discussant explained how the debate around the melting of glaciers is extremely complicated and cannot have a simple answer. Glaciers are viscoplastic in nature. So what might be considered as glaciers melting might actually be a geological phenomenon of glaciers just breaking up. A lot more work needs to be done in this area before anything concrete can be ascertained. He also mentioned that satellite imagery is not entirely reliable data since it does not cover the area throughout the season so one cannot make accurate interpretations.  \nThe internal discussants\, Jaganath Panda and Avinash Godbole\, also raised important points. The former talked about the Chinese strategy that includes the restructuring of the industrialization process and a new focus on local industries in order to show that Tibetan industries are not being destroyed. He also discussed the reasons behind why China wanted to divert water in terms of geography\, social and national tension particularly with the drying up of the Yellow river.  He proposed SAARC and the UN as good forums in which India can engage with China. Godbole put forward two critical questions. First\, if Chinese activity in Tibet affects rivers’ flow to India\, it should also affect rivers flowing into China; so\, why would China want to harm their own water resources? Secondly\, can science and politics be separated? Even scientific data can be manipulated for particular ends.  \nThe Chair\, Arvind Gupta\, summed up the discussions by claiming that we should “learn to live with uncertainty” and evolve precautionary principles rather than keep waiting for concrete data to act. He asserted that China feels secure with its Tibet policies and the diversions of the rivers. It becomes an important strategic tool to engage India in larger Sino-Indian relations.  \nThe report has been prepared by Shubha Kamala Prasad\, an intern at IDSA.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/climate-change-environmental-degradation-tibet-and-implications-for-south-asian-security
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T214303
CREATED:20231223T222005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:63674-1264743000-1264743000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Indo-Africa Narcotics Ties
DESCRIPTION:During the Cold War\, there was a complete focus on the military competition because these two things projected as power and increase security of the states. Given the evolving nature of conflict however\, this no longer holds true. New “soft” threats pose bigger hazards to human beings today. There has been a need to redefine classical security paradigms along the lines of new threats such as internal conflicts\, money laundering\, human rights\, trafficking\, illicit drugs trade\, etc.  \nOne of the non-traditional security threats is the menace of Narcotics Trafficking (NT) and organized transnational crime (OTC). NT today is a problem that exists at the national and at the international level. The narcotics trafficking business is the second largest industry in the world valued at approximately $500 billion in 1994 and approximately $322 billion in 2007\, following the arms sales business only. Production and refining of drugs and the consumption of these drugs almost inevitably happens in two different areas\, so narcotics trade is inherently suited to be a transnational crime. In some instances\, narco-trafficking tends to harm the state because money laundered indirectly or directly makes its way into fuelling separatist groups\, insurgents\, and terrorists\, thus permitting non-state actors to take on the state. Despite this\, many states tend to view narcotics as a domestic or internal security matter.   \nIndia is uniquely placed in the global illicit drugs trade\, sandwiched between the “Golden Triangle” of the North-East and the “Golden Crescent” of the North-West. India is also used as a transit point for drugs from South and South-East Asia onwards to Europe. The profitability of the drugs trade has been made possible by the fact that India is surrounded by weak states with endemic corruption. India’s own security has become intrinsically tied to the strength of states not only within its immediate neighborhood but also at a distance.  \nPresently\, India is not only an exporter of locally grown and/or manufactured drugs\, it is also on the receiving end and serves as a major transit hub in the global narcotics network. India’s connections with Africa\, as well as Africans operating in the rest of the South Asian region\, have single-handedly emerged as one of the gravest and most complex “invisible” security dilemmas. In India alone\, hundreds of Africans are languishing in prisons around the country on drug related offenses. An average of one ton of heroine alone is seized every year all over India. Pockets of African communities in Goa\, Rajasthan and the South often use tourists for “quick trades” or as carriers for transporting drugs to foreign destinations.   \nThere are three types of players involved in NT– “drug barons”\, “strikers” and “couriers”. A drug baron is usually someone who has risen to significance over time and due to the extent of their involvement. The narcotics trafficking menace\, and its associated destabilizing effects\, impacts all levels of society – locally\, nationally and internationally. India today has the highest rate of opiate users in the South Asian region of approximately 3.2 million. In a national survey conducted in 2001-2002 by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment it was estimated that about 73.2 million people were users of alcohol and drugs. Narcotics addiction among the Indian populace has increased hand in hand with the spread of diseases. Use of synthetic drugs and intravenous drug use\, especially in the North-East states\, has led to the spread of HIV/AIDS among drug users\, introducing a newer grave element to the crisis. Narco-Trafficking has resulted in human security and economic security impacts in India. While legislation under the NDPS Act remains strict\, it does not include the socio-cultural uses of drugs in the Indian context. \nPoints in the Discussion:\n\nNeed to study the involvement of African countries in NT because not all African countries are involved in it.\nAfrican governments do not intervene to control the traffickers particularly in the case of Somalia\, and the percentage of drugs smugglers has increased today. \nThe Role of International Agencies such as the IMF to control the narcotics trade should be discussed in detail.\nNeed to analyze the agencies that provide support to drug traffickers.\nNeed to focus on why Nigeria became the hub of NT\, other countries like Ghana also became the hub but Nigeria is the most populous country in the region\, so its involvement is greater than others.\nHow has globalization created new forms of socialization to control the consumption of drugs?\nWhy Nigeria become the hub for the narcotics trade?\n\nPrepared by M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi\, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/indo-africa-narcotics-ties
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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