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SUMMARY:Report of  Fellows Seminar  on The Geopolitics of Europe's Quest for Energy Security: Significant Achievements amid Myriad Challenges
DESCRIPTION:A MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar by Dr. Swasti Rao\, Associate  Fellow\, on “The Geopolitics of Europe’s Quest for Energy Security:  Significant Achievements amid Myriad Challenges” was held on 7 February 2023.  It was chaired by Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva\, Professor\, Jawaharlal Nehru  University\, New Delhi. The external discussants were Dr. Lydia Powell\,  Distinguished Fellow\, Observer Research Foundation (ORF)\, and Mr. Rajeev Lala\,  Associate Director\, S&P Global. Ms. Anandita Bhada\, Research Analyst at MP-IDSA\,  was the internal discussant. \nExecutive  Summary \nAlmost a year into the war in Ukraine\, European nations have  fast-tracked their energy diversification in order to reduce their dependency  on Russia. The main issues are policies adopted by Europe to diversify\, the available  options\, and prognosis for the future. \nDetailed Report\nThe Chair\, Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva\, in his opening  remarks\, stated that diversification of energy supplies would likely have a major  geopolitical implication. For example\, Europe moving towards the US for oil and  Russia diversifying its energy exports away from Europe\, towards Asia would  significantly impact the international arena. \nDr. Swasti Rao began her presentation with a question – “Does  Europe want to diversify its energy requirements from Russia?” She replied in  the affirmative but pointed out that the main issue is implementing this  vision. The speaker then highlighted the structure of her paper before briefly delving  into the ongoing developments in Russia-Ukraine war.  \nDr. Rao stressed that Europe is seeking to completely  wean itself away from Russian crude oil\, natural gas and coal. She highlighted  Europe’s dependency on Russian energy amidst the differentiation in patterns  and volume of such trade. She elaborated on the internal and external  differences in Europe regarding the diversification process. She pointed out Europe’s  plans to focus on alternative fuels in the form of hydrogen and nuclear\, apart  from creating new energy maps and import corridors. The fact is that today Europe  is looking into both short-term and long-term energy measures\, anchored to  avoiding any potential dependency. For Europe\, the supply chains should not  only be cost-effective but also more resilient.  \nDr. Rao highlighted the diversification measures  undertaken by Europe. These include import diversification\, short-term energy  imports\, protection of the most venerable cohorts\, and acceleration to new  renewables.  \nThe speaker elaborated on the macro and micro energy trends  in Europe – both before and since the conflict started. At the macro level\, there  has been a systemic and sustainable shift away from Russian energy. At the  micro-level\, Europe has sought to cut down domestic demand apart from  transition to renewables. These steps are\, however\, hampered by limitations that  include pipeline disruption\, oil re-routing\, global liquefaction capacity\, and  failure to meet market goals. \nMoving to the issue of transition to renewables such as  green hydrogen\, blue hydrogen\, and bio-methane\, Dr. Rao highlighted the sense  of urgency in the form of new European pathways to develop these alternatives.  She also referred to Europe’s attempts at developing new import corridors. She  emphasised that one of the reasons for Europe’s ongoing support to Ukraine is  anchored to Ukraine emerging as a promising option for green hydrogen.  \nOn the issue of expanding avenues of energy cooperation  between India and Europe\, Dr. Rao referred to the Trade Technology Council and  ongoing bilateral discussions in the field of hydrogen.  \nDr. Rao concluded by stating that Europe appears to have  shown a strong political will to diversify yet it would need strong political  leadership in what would likely be a very painful period ahead.  \nDr. Lydia Powell:\nDr. Powell\, while complimenting the author for her  presentation\, felt that there is scope for enhancing the analytical rigour of  the paper by moving beyond the summarizing and descriptive aspects. This  includes a more rigorous analysis of the post-Ukraine energy situation in  Europe and its future. She observed that the speaker could qualitatively  improve the section on “geopolitics of Europe’s quest for energy security”.  \nDr. Powell gave a few more suggestions to improve the  paper. First\, she suggested revising the opening section\, particularly the  framing of whether the European Union (EU) can replace Russia in the context of  energy. Second\, one needs to dwell on who the winners and losers of the current  geopolitical scenario are – this includes Russia\, EU and the US. Also\, whether Russia’s  calculations are long-term vis-à-vis short term? Third\, the speaker could address  the question of whether the fossil fuel and nuclear industries are the winners  in this climate. Fourth\, the speaker should address whether Asia has become the  winner given the renewed focus on the continent amidst Russia’s growing energy  exports to India and China. Similarly\, has the developing world lost out in the  short term on account of their energy crisis? Fifth\, the paper must address its  policy relevance\, particularly for India.  \nMr. Rajeev  Lala:\nMr. Rajeev Lala highlighted the need to add a caveat  around hydrogen – “hope”\, especially on green hydrogen. Meanwhile\, there exists  two proponents around hydrogen; one is the blue hydrogen proponent (led by  Saudi Arabia) and the other being the green hydrogen proponents (led by Japan\,  Korea\, Switzerland\, and South Korea). The key issue is financing\, as both  technologies are expensive; hence it is still most policymakers’ hope. \nThere also exists a significant variation in European  countries dependency on Russia. This has a direct bearing on each country’s  national position on Russia with the most critical stand being taken by  countries which have the least dependency. Mr. Lala suggested the need for a chart  to show this correlation by providing the examples of energy dependencies of Germany  and the United Kingdom on Russia.  \nThe discussant called upon Dr. Rao to focus on the interconnectivity  issue and the status of interconnectors across Europe. Meanwhile\, a section  could be added on the risks for 2023 and what could go wrong.  \nMr. Lala elaborated on ongoing discussions on “winter  approaching” and its potential impact on Ukraine\, and stressed that winter has in  fact already arrived in South Asia in the June-August period since all the gas  markets are interconnected. He referred to its impact on Pakistan which is  undergoing a prolonged energy crisis. In the same vein\, Europe’s energy  diversification could impact the Indian gas market\, which the author should  also focus on. \nMs. Anandita  Bhada:\nThe discussant stressed on the need to highlight the  winners and losers of the ongoing crisis. She referred to the eastern European  countries\, who being less economically developed\, have found cheaper Russian  energy more attractive. Ms. Bhada felt that the importance of interconnectors  must be emphasized since several eastern European countries are landlocked or  have a small coastline. In this\, the significance of Poland-Lithuania interconnector  should be emphasised. She also referred to the concept of projects of common  interests which help secure energy across the continent. This includes the  Baltic Gas Pipeline connecting Norway via Denmark to Poland.  \nApart from raising the question of financing\, Ms. Bhada highlighted  the use of rare earth elements sourced from China for energy transition to  renewables. She wondered whether a significant focus on renewables would mean  Europe would have an increased dependence on China for rare-earth elements? Ms.  Bhada also observed that the Brexit deal must be resolved for any substantial  gains between Europe and the United Kingdom. Finally\, regarding the reduction  of demand\, she pondered that by the time there is a reduction in the market for  Russian energy sources\, the need for the substitute would increase; thus\, how  would Europe balance it out?  \nProf. Gulshan  Sachdeva:\nThe Chair complimented the author for her work. He also  highlighted some of the areas of the paper which could be further improved.  \nFirst\, the title could be formulated for a more precise  understanding. Too many aspects within the title may create problems. There is  also a need for more in-depth analysis of the geopolitical factors at play.  \nSecond\, there is a need to have a discussion on the  concept of energy security and what is the European understanding of energy security.  There is also need to discuss the history of the European understanding of  energy security from the past to the current era.  \n  Third\, Prof Sachdeva opined that the Literature Review  might not be needed but gave the researcher the discretion to keep or remove  it.  \nFourth\, he highlighted the need to re-arrange the paper.  In the introduction\, the researcher could highlight the European concept of  energy security\, and then delve into the current geopolitical situation as a  result of which Europe has chosen to adjust its energy security policies.  \nFifth\, concerning the figures\, there is a need for  primary data\, and the use of multiple graphics is confusing for the readers.  For example\, a graph could be there for the situation before the Ukraine war  and the current situation.  \nSixth\, there is a need to refer to more primary documents  from the European Union; for instance\, the Repower EU Plan needs to be added.  \nSeventh\, Prof. Sachdeva observed that on India-EU  collaboration\, the researcher could avoid the over-emphasis on hydrogen since it  may divert from the crux of the paper. In this\, the paper needs to focus more  on the impact of energy diversification on India. A country like India is  significantly dependent on Russian arms and energy\, and there could be severe  implications for the geopolitics of the Eurasian region.  \nEighth\, the author must expand the conclusion. \nQuestions and  Comments \nDeputy Director General\, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi  (Retd.)  agreed with the Chair  on specific aspects of the paper which need to be reviewed. He observed that multilateralism  is weakening\, maybe to a certain extent even fracturing\, which has led to  multipolarity and emergence of regional groupings. In the past\, regional  groupings were linked to geography but several of those links are now fractured.  In the same vein\, he observed that geopolitics and ideology are fracturing  existing trade agreements\, for example\, the EU- Russian energy mix and the  US-China trade war. New alignments are shaping up\, and old friends and  alliances are finding themselves on opposite sides of the energy alignment;  simultaneously\, they are adapting and harmonizing with the current geopolitical  situation. \nOn green hydrogen\, he emphasised that Indian researchers  have been active. Nevertheless\, cost is a factor and the focus has also been  more on blue hydrogen. The questions of economics trumping geopolitics and the  success of the shift to hydrogen could be addressed. \nThe Q/A session broadly revolved around the themes of  transition to greener energy\, energy security\, energy politics within Europe\,  nuclear energy option\, North-South divide\, India’s ability to deal with global  risks and the need to focus on West Asia.  \nThe speaker responded to the comments and questions.  \n(Report prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang\, Research Analyst\, Europe  and Eurasia Centre\, MP-IDSA)
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/report-of-fellows-seminar-on-the-geopolitics-of-europes-quest-for-energy-security-significant-achievements-amid-myriad-challenges
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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