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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100702T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100702T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T205551
CREATED:20231223T221702Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130246Z
UID:63648-1278048600-1278048600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Emerging Strategic Scenario in the Western Indian Ocean Region
DESCRIPTION:Senior Research Associate Ruchita Beri presented a Fellows Paper on “Emerging Security Scenario in the Western Indian Ocean Region” on Friday\, July 2\, 2010. Commodore (Retd.) C. Uday Bhaskar chaired the session. \nThe author introduced the subject highlighting the strategic importance of the Western Indian Ocean Region for India. To underscore the importance of the topic\, Beri quoted Robert Kaplan who has dubbed the region as the “centre stage for the global struggles in the twentieth century.” In light of the self-evident and much-discussed strategic importance of the region in global politics\, she averred that since India was strategically placed in the region\, the prevailing security scenario in the region\, particularly the rise of piracy in Somali waters\, impacted on its national interest. Therefore\, it is incumbent on Indian security planners to keep a close watch on unfolding events in the region. \nBeri discussed the problem of piracy in the region at length. She traced the genesis of this problem to the collapse of Somalia’s Said Barre government in 1991. In the wake of the collapse\, anarchy-hit Somalia provided a fertile ground for the rise of piracy. Since then\, the problem of piracy has only aggravated. Various factors such as absence of a central authority\, massive unemployment\, depleting natural maritime resources and resentment against foreign exploitation of these resources have converted Somali fishermen into pirates. Now\, the gravity of the problem can be gauged by the fact that insurance companies have hiked the rates of insurance premium manifold for shipping companies seeking insurance cover for their ships passing through the waters off the Somali coast. Besides\, shipping companies are also redirecting their vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. But as the success stories of the Somali pirates are inspiring and encouraging pirates in areas such as Nigeria and South America\, the redirection of ships may provide only temporary relief. Beri also noted that the pirates enjoyed sympathy and support of the local communities because they were perceived as protectors of the Somali coast. In fact\, pirates describe themselves as “Coast Guards of Somalia”. Against this backdrop\, Beri delineated various initiatives and measures recently taken by the international community to curb piracy. However\, she pointed out the weaknesses in these attempts\, which arise from jurisdictional and other problems related to International Law. \nIn addition\, Beri also focused on the Chinese presence in the African continent. She explained how\, in the last twenty years\, China has embarked on active diplomacy in Africa. She analyzed the basic reasons that were guiding China’s Africa policy and argued that China’s overall geopolitical understanding was dictating its active diplomacy in Africa. China wants to offset the negative impact of American supremacy by having more and more alliances with non-Western powers. Besides\, it is desperate to secure as much African natural resources as possible for its own use and benefit. To maintain its high growth rate\, it is imperative for China to have uninterrupted access to energy resources wherever they are available in the world.  \nBeri stated that the phenomenal rise of the Chinese presence in the Western Indian Ocean Region and the rise of piracy in the region are matters of grave security concern for India. She noted that over 100 Indian citizens have been kidnapped and several Indian naval ships have been deployed in the region. The author was of the view that the Indian Navy seemed to be more aggressive than its Chinese counterpart in acting against the pirates. She also narrated various regional and bilateral measures adopted by India aimed at counterbalancing the Chinese presence in the region. \nDiscussion\nAmbassador Rajiv Bhatia commented that while it is an excellent paper\, the connection between the rise of piracy in the western India Ocean Region and China’s presence there needs to be established in the introductory section of the paper. Further\, he remarked that India should link up with piracy affected parties to curb this problem. Besides\, India should follow a frank and forthcoming diplomacy in intra-Africa disputes. It should not be shy of taking a stand on intra-Africa disputes. He argued that India must not ignore the Chinese presence in the region\, though it also need not lament over it. In addition\, India should not copy the Chinese model of business with African countries. India should monitor China and intensify its engagement with Africa.  \nDr. Vijay Sakhuja commented that a lot of international activities were going on in the region\, though little was being done for regional capacity building. He cautioned that military sales in the region must be carefully watched. Finally\, he advised the author that the conclusion of the paper needed to be made a bit more substantive. \nConstantino Xavier commented that China’s presence in the region and its security stakes in the region needed to be elaborated upon more. He also said that there was a greater need of defining the Indian security stakes in the region\, and security implications of the regional security scenario for India.  \nIskander Rahman noted that it would be an interesting to know how naval rivalry between India and China would affect the region. \nFinally\, Uday Bhaskar argued that a maritime perspective of history – though still developing – needs to be employed to make the study more substantive. \nPrepared by Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh\, Research Assistant\, IDSA
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/emerging-strategic-scenario-in-the-western-indian-ocean-region
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100709T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100709T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T205551
CREATED:20231223T221702Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130246Z
UID:63645-1278653400-1278653400@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Securing Andaman and Nicobar islands
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Admiral (Retd.) P S DasDiscussants: Cmde Ashok Sawhney and Cdr Shishir Upadhyaya \n \nPaper Summary\nIndia’s forward presence in the eastern Indian Ocean is enabled by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The location and geography of these Islands impart them with immense strategic importance. The archipelago forms India’s southeast frontier. It is also nearer to Southeast Asia than to the Indian mainland (approximately 1200 km away). The 780 km linear extension of the island gives it an extensive north-south spread in the Bay of Bengal\, ideal for generating domain awareness\, which could be utilized for countering traditional and non-traditional threats. The propinquity of these islands to the busy shipping lanes\, especially Malacca strait\, not only provides India with an opportunity to play an important role in the security of the sea lines of communication\, but also to use these islands as a transshipment hub\, a bunkering facility or a duty free port. Proximity of the archipelago to the Southeast Asian countries enables India to foster friendly relations by engaging them through joint operations. It also helps India in keeping abreast of the political and military developments in its extended neighbourhood.  \nAt the same time\, the physical distance and remoteness of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from the Indian mainland contribute to their vulnerability to both conventional and non-conventional threats. At present\, the probability of a conventional threat to the island chain from its immediate neighbours appears remote. However\, a military threat to the islands could emanate in the form of a possible intervention in the Bay of Bengal by an extra regional power\, especially China\, given its dependence on sea borne supply lines in the Indian Ocean and the need to secure them both from non-state actors and potential adversaries such as the United States and India. Towards this end\, China has been diligently developing port and other infrastructural facilities in the Indian Ocean littoral. While China and the littoral states have maintained that the infrastructure being established is purely for commercial use\, utilization of these facilities by China during a conflict cannot be ruled out. And as part of its distant sea defence strategy\, China now seeks to project its naval supremacy as far as West Asia and to the shipping lanes of the Pacific by deploying warships as escorts for its commercial vessels. Moreover\, for tracking India’s capability and strengths in the Bay of Bengal\, China has been allegedly engaged in gathering intelligence stealthily through various means. Existence of a Chinese naval fleet in the vicinity would also greatly limit the range and extent of Indian naval operations.  \nHowever\, currently what seem to be a cause of immediate concern are non-conventional threats like poaching\, illegal settlements\, gunrunning and use of A&N’s uninhabited islands as hideaways by terrorist groups and smugglers\, and natural disasters. Poaching has emerged as the biggest problem for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Several factors have contributed to the emergence of these islands as a magnet for poachers. Firstly\, the fishing industry in the islands is underdeveloped. Secondly\, the existence of isolated and uninhabited islands scattered far and wide serves as ideal hideaways for poachers. And finally\, the existing policy of detaining the arrested poachers in a camp\, and then repatriating them to their country in conformity with international law\, has taken away the element of deterrence. Another security concern for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is the issue of illegal settlements. The trend of illegal Bangladeshi settlers has increased in the aftermath of the Tsunami Rehabilitation work. Dearth of labourers has meant that they are hired from the mainland but who continue to reside in the Island group permanently. The misuse of the Andaman Sea and various uninhabited islands of the archipelago for drug trafficking and gunrunning remains another issue of grave concern. Anti-smuggling operations have revealed that many islands of the archipelago are used as sanctuaries or trans-shipment bases by gunrunners\, terrorists and insurgents. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcano eruptions. The Tsunami of 2004 bears testimony to the destruction of life and property caused by gigantic sea waves\, especially to the Nicobar Islands.  \nFollowing the India-China border in 1962 war\, the security of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands was reviewed and the Indian Navy was assigned the responsibility of defending the Island territory. This led to the establishment of a forward naval base\, INS Jarawa\, at Port Blair in 1964. In 1981\, INS Jarawa was rechristened as FORTAN. In 2001\, the Group of Ministers’ Report on ‘reforming the national security system’ recommended replacing FORTAN with a joint Andaman and Nicobar Command. Broadly\, the functions of ANC can be divided into three categories – military\, diplomatic and constabulary.  The military role\, especially during peace time\, involves maintaining deterrence through Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)\, ensuring physical presence in the area of interest\, and conducting joint exercises. On the diplomatic level\, ANC has been involved in initiatives like Milan\, a biennial gathering of navies of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) for the purpose of promoting regional cooperation and mutual understanding of maritime issues of common concern. Constabulary function for the ANC primarily involves enforcement of the rule of law at sea and conducting low intensity maritime operations to prevent poaching\, illegal migration\, narcotics and arms smuggling.  \nChallenges to securing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands come from a variety of factors. Prominent among them are a difficult topography\, inadequate infrastructure and manpower\, lack of coordination\, inefficient intelligence and pervasive under-development. Concerted efforts are being made by the government to plug the infrastructural gaps for enhancing surveillance\, air defence and coastal security. Assets and manpower are being strengthened. For example\, plans are afoot for building two air bases at Shibpur and Campbell Bay after the airstrips there are lengthened and night operation facilities are provided to enable them to operate all types of aircraft round the clock. A proposal for establishing additional Coast Guard stations at Havelock and Ranggat has been forwarded. The marine police have completed vulnerability gap analysis and have proposed the augmentation of manpower and assets. Besides the development of infrastructure\, grey areas that hamper the effective functioning of the security forces need to be addressed. Firstly\, better coordination between various security agencies\, especially between Coast Guard\, police and forest department has to be ensured. A MDA among them should be created and the SOP needs to be standardized at the earliest.  For the intelligence gathering process both HUMINT and TECHINT need to be made strong and fluent. Above all\, a holistic development of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has to be undertaken. Tourism can act as a catalyst for the development of the islands as a tourist hub.  \nDiscussion and Suggestions\n\nThere needs to be a change in India’s attitude towards Andaman and Nicobar. Instead of defending it\, Andaman and Nicobar islands should be viewed as the first line of defence.\nThe main aim of India in Andaman and Nicobar region should be to assess the threats from China and Pakistan and build measures to counter them.\nThe importance of the trade routes surrounding the archipelago is bound to increase as India’s trade with China and ASEAN is set to increase in future.\nIndia has not fully realized the importance of the 10 Degree Channel and 6 Degree Channel\, while China is fully aware of the importance of these two important trade routes.\nThe isolated location of these islands is the major problem that India faces.\nA highly efficient surveillance network is a must to monitor non-conventional threats.\nThe communication network needs to be developed to carry out efficient surveillance and monitoring.\nMore manpower and modernization of equipment is a must.\nPeople are as vital an aspect as they can be in the region and genuine attention needs to be paid to grievances of the tribal people of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.\nThe internal political disturbances in South East Asian nations could have a spill over effect on the archipelago.\nBiological threats\, diseases like\, malaria\, SARS\, etc. should also be considered as part of non-conventional threats.\n\nReport prepared by Sana Hashmi\, an Intern at IDSA.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/securing-andaman-and-nicobar-islands
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100716T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100716T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T205551
CREATED:20231223T221438Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130246Z
UID:63643-1279258200-1279258200@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Foreign Policy Trends in Pakistan
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Shri R BanerjiDiscussants: Prof. Kalim Bahadur and Prof. Savita Pande \n \nThe paper titled “Foreign Policy Trends in Pakistan” concerns itself with the context set by 9/11\, though its key objective was to analyse the most recent trends in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy. The central argument of the paper is that there is no consensus within Pakistan on the issue of relations with the United States and the rise of radical Islamist groups renders the evolution of such a consensus even more challenging.  \nKey Drivers of Pakistani Foreign Policy were identified as: \n\nIncreasing American Intrusiveness\nKarzai’s Inclination to Patch up with Pakistan\nIndia’s Impatience with Pakistan’s Response to Terrorism\nGarnering Continued Strategic Support from China\nMagnifying the India Threat by leveraging its Water Crisis\nEnsuring Adequate Energy Supplies\n\nMs. Kumar argued that within Pakistani circles\, mistrust of the US has increasingly less to do with Indo-US relations\, but about the American presence in the region. Citing examples of this\, she outlined its implications and consequent Pakistani reactions. She also examined the contradictions resulting from Pakistan’s policy objective of playing a central role in the reconciliation process in Afghanistan while simultaneously extending support to the Taliban\, the nature of which was further substantiated.  \nIn relation to India\, it was suggested that the tenor of the Pakistani attitude has been largely self–congratulatory in light of resumption of talks. It was contended moreover that the expected gains from the current round of talks must not be over-estimated. Recent co-operation between Pakistan and China was evaluated and understood as being inconsistent with international opinion and certain US policy pronouncements. Conclusion of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal was deemed yet another instance of safeguarding national interest despite oppositional American pressures. \nThe paper’s overall assessment was that the US is likely to remain a significant element around which foreign policy in Pakistan is shaped. The US continues to perceive Pakistan as a crucial player in the Afghan theatre\, even as the latter has redoubled efforts to minimize the scope for active Indian participation. The argument was made in conclusion that dialogue for its own sake was certainly unlikely to resolve outstanding issues that cloud the Indo-Pakistani relationship.     \nExternal Discussants:\nProf. Kalim Bahadur: On certain very important issues\, national consensus within Pakistan remains intact\, for example the Kerry-Lugar Bill. Condemnation of deployment of non-state actors as instruments of policy was near non-existent in Pakistan. In the same vein\, actions directed by these elements against India enjoyed the tacit support of the establishment. The drone strikes launched from Pakistani soil delegitimised Pakistan’s overt stance that such American actions were counter to its sovereignty. Pakistan’s continued perception of its relationship with China as a useful hedge against both India and the US was also understood as vital to its foreign policy stance. \nProf. Savita Pande: “Memory”\, “external environment” and “state’s domestic composition” are determinants of foreign policy as argued by a recent academic work on the subject. At the institutional level\, there is lack of a clear delineation of responsibilities within the Pakistani establishment vis-à-vis external relations. Such entities as Blackwater were functioning in Pakistan with\, rather that in spite of\, the consent of the Pakistani leadership. Speaking in favour of maintaining an analytical distinction between the Afgan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban\, Prof. Pande described the optimistic\, pessimistic and pragmatist positions which are all currently in vogue in Pakistan on the matter of dealing with the Pakistani Taliban. China’s pursuit of its own interests in the Af-Pak theatre was briefly examined to draw out lessons for India\, while on the Iran-Pakistan pipeline\, India’s centrality to the viability and success of this project was postulated. \nInternal Discussants\nDr. Behuria mentioned the importance of drawing an analytical distinction between objectives and drivers of foreign policy. Adding to the list of drivers on the domestic front\, he drew attention to the significance of economic decline and political clout of the military in shaping the context for foreign policy design in Pakistan.  \nOnce again separating drivers from relevant issues\, Dr. Kalyanaraman addressed important shifts in the Afghan scenario and corresponding attempts by Pakistan to reposition itself. He further identified the past year or so as the more closely relevant frame of reference for purposes of arriving at helpful conclusions about new developments in Pakistan’s foreign policy. The future of Afghanistan was singled out as a potently useful prism to anticipate Pakistan’s relationship with the US\, China\, Iran and India.  \nDiscussion\nThe need to explicitly comment on the extent to which foreign policy in Pakistan is influenced by the military was highlighted and it was suggested to consider ways in which greater civilian control over policy formulation would change its content and character. The author was suggested to give proposals on how the dialogue might be supplemented to attain key goals on the Indian side. It was advised that a considered assessment be made of greater Pakistani involvement in Afghanistan\, for reasons of achieving strategic depth\, in terms of the backlash that this would have for the Pakistani state. Pakistan’s attempts to strike a balance between its relations with the US and China was identified as meriting close observation. \nChair’s Summary\nThe chair took the view that consensus on key national issues in Pakistan has not quite broken down nor has the influence of the military sustained any erosion. He acknowledged a role for Pakistan in containing the effects of American involvement in Afghanistan while coping with the extremist blowback that this might incur. He concluded by thanking the gathering for a fruitful discussion. \nReport prepared by Kalyani Unkule\, Research Assistant\, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/foreign-policy-trends-in-pakistan
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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