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DTSTART:20090101T000000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100115T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100115T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T213722
CREATED:20231224T104423Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250228T050715Z
UID:64186-1263533400-1263533400@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Civil - Military Relations
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Amitabh MatooDiscussants: Mohan Guruswamy and Ashok Mehta
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/civil-military-relations
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100115T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100115T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T213722
CREATED:20231224T104423Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250228T050837Z
UID:64187-1263533400-1263533400@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Non-State Actors and South Asia: A Regional Profile
DESCRIPTION:Only by Invitation 1030 to 1300 hrs \nChairperson: Ramesh V Phadke\nDiscussants: Kalim Bahadur and Alok Bansal
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/non-state-actors-and-south-asia-a-regional-profile
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100122T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100122T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T213722
CREATED:20231223T222005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T104423Z
UID:63675-1264138200-1264138200@idsa.in
SUMMARY:India's role in Afghanistan & Af-Pak Strategy
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: I. P. KhoslaDiscussants: Ravi Sawhney and Srinath Raghavan \nDr. Shanthie D’Souza’s presentation noted that the Obama administration’s Af-Pak strategy has brought the importance of the region to the forefront as a “hub of terror”. The author notes that US policy in Afghanistan has had its direct ramifications on India. The US withdrawal which is expected to lead to a deterioration of security and conflict will spill over into India. It will compel India to make tough policy choices. While noting that debates on post- US exit strategies are gaining momentum in India\, Shanthie suggests that it would be timely to deliberate on available options in case of the US withdrawal.  \nWhile attempting to interpret the Af-Pak strategy\, the author points out that it appears to be a ‘containment strategy’ aimed at containing the conflict at four levels- Afghanistan\, Pakistan\, Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and the un-stated goal of improving Indo-Pak relations. Shanthie points out that there is little evidence of change from the previous administration’s short term counter terrorism policy of pursuing a political strategy of supporting institutions and programmes. \nShanthie described the problem areas of the strategy where she notes that analysts in the region have viewed the Af-Pak strategy as a ‘reductionist’ strategy and a prelude to a US exit from Afghanistan. President Obama’s December 1\, 2009 speech only reconfirmed such apprehensions.  \nThere are seven problem areas. 1. Draw down of forces; By linking additional troop deployments to a timetable for the drawdown of forces and narrowly defined goals. However\, the strategy misses out on the core essentials of COIN campaigns which hinges on time\, long term commitment\, institution building and a larger political strategy. Moreover\, by announcing the exit\, it runs the danger of working to the advantage of the insurgents and their sponsors who will ‘wait for their time’.  2.Troops surge– Increase in troops numbers; While an increase in troops numbers for a ‘population centric’ policy is an essential step forward\, without clear Rules of Engagement (RoE) in dealing with the tribes\, especially the Pashtuns in South and East Afghanistan\, it could result in further alienation of the people. 3. Civilian Surge– Problem of Unity of Effort- The present strategy has focused on the civic component or the ‘civilian surge’. But the need is not to send more American experts but to build local Afghan capacities in better governance and aid delivery mechanisms. 4. Building Afghan National Security institutions in a limited time frame– A major problem in outlining a time table for downsizing troops hinges on the need for a phased transition to Afghan national security forces\, capable of independent action\, to take over from the US forces in 18 months. There is also a problem of mentoring and funding such huge projects. 5. Transferring authority to credible Afghan government– A credibly elected Afghan president and his capacity to extend his writ beyond Kabul are critical to an eventual US exit plan. The shortcomings of the electoral process\, redressal mechanisms and re-election procedures have highlighted the problems associated with the lack of political sector reforms.  6. Issues of sanctuaries and safe havens– The author points out that in the present scenario\, increased dependence on the Pakistan army and without addressing the issue of ‘sanctuaries’\, selected targeting of the Pakistani Taliban will not significantly dent the Afghan Taliban capability in the long term. 7.  Sources of funding of insurgency– One of the major short comings of the present strategy is the lack of attention paid to the sources of funding for the insurgency. After this\, the paper deals with the regional responses regarding American intentions in Afghanistan.  \nIn the next section\, Shanthie discusses India-Afghan relations. While highlighting the historical developments\, she mentions that India’s relations with Afghanistan have been shaped by shared history\, geography\, culture and economy. On post 9/11 Afghanistan\, India took an active role as an ‘ideational power’ by adopting a soft approach aimed at long term stabilization\, institution building and augmenting economic growth in Afghanistan; integrating Afghanistan in the South Asian framework and reviving the role of Afghanistan as a ‘land bridge’ connecting South Asia with Central Asia. India is the sixth largest bilateral aid donor country\, pledging 1.2 billion dollars and invested in diverse areas such as infrastructure\, communications\, education\, healthcare\, social welfare\, training of officials\, institution building etc.  \nWhile describing the challenges to India’s aid policy in Afghanistan\, Shanthie points out that India needs to accept responsibilities and risks that come with that stature. The growing bonhomie between India and Afghanistan\, coupled with the increased presence of India’s development projects in Afghanistan\, remains the target of the Taliban-led insurgency. Also geopolitical rivalry continues to shape Pakistan’s response to the increasing bonhomie between India and Afghanistan. The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan has serious consequences for India’s security interests.    \nShanthie has generated three plausible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan. Scenario 1- US withdrawal or draw down of forces- Return of the Taliban; The author points out that in case of a complete US withdrawal\, the probability of the return of the Taliban is not far fetched\, thereby condemning Afghanistan to what US analysts as the worst case scenario. This would also lead to an emboldening of the Al Qaeda\, instability spreading to Pakistan and Central Asia\, thus reducing the region to become a base for Al Qaeda operations. Scenario 2- US limited engagement-‘proxy war’; The most probable scenario beyond 2011 is the reduced US presence in Afghanistan with troops limited to protecting key cities\, a shift from overstretched counterinsurgency operations to internal defence. This would allow Pakistan to continue its ‘hedging’ strategy whereby it will continue supporting the Afghan Taliban to destabilise Afghanistan with the eventual goal of reinstating a pliant regime. Scenario 3- US long term commitments– Building on Afghan state capacities; According to the author\, this is the best case scenario for Afghanistan\, though such a state of affairs is highly unlikely given the reduced public support for the Afghan war in the United States. This would call for additional resources including troops to train and partner with Afghan forces and continuation of the institution building programmes. In this scenario\, India could play a long term role in the training of the Afghan national institutions\, institutional building political\, and security and justice sector reforms. \nIn the last section\, the author suggests policy options for India. According to Shanthie\, India can play an active role in training and building the capacity of Afghan national security forces. India should also reestablish its support base among the Pastun tribes and invest in acquiring better human intelligence. These support groups can be cultivated as protectors of Indian aid projects by making community participation and local ownership a key plank of India’s aid policy. The author cautions that these goals should be achieved in the next 18 months. \nHowever in the scenario of US limited engagement in Afghanistan beyond 2011\, India could continue with its assistance programme in Afghanistan. Shanthie argues that in a revamped diplomatic strategy\, India can work towards creation of Concert of Powers’- a regional grouping including US\, Russia\, EU\, India\, Iran\, Central Asian Republics and China. India could play a lead role in carving out a greater role for the United Nations and deployment of UN forces in Afghanistan symbolizing the UN Security Council’s endorsement would not entirely be a misplaced policy option.  \nShanthie concludes her presentation by suggesting that in near terms\, India needs to pursue a reinvigorated Afghan policy in terms of protecting its projects and carving out a larger regional role in the stabilization of Afghanistan. India needs to consider near term and long term scenarios to rethink its political\, diplomatic and military options. Given the limited time frame\, before the summer 2011\, India will have to make tough policy choices.   \nPoints raised during the discussion. \n\nObama administration should come out with a clear and determined Afghan policy. With frequent changes in the AF-Pak strategy\, desired results can not be achieved.\nIndian policy makers will have to take bold initiatives to develop a regional mechanism to effectively deal with terror activities in the region.\nAfghan nation building is essential to effectively solve its problems. The international community should take effective steps towards this direction. India can play a lead role in this process.\nToo much reliance on Pakistan in the Afghan war is not the right approach. Regional players such as India\, Iran Russia and China should be given more space in order to seek an Afghan solution. \nHowever a solution can only come from within Afghanistan. Global and regional players can help them achieving it.\n\nReport prepared by Sanjeev Kumar Shrivastav\, Research Assistant at the IDSA.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/indias-role-in-afghanistan-af-pak-strategy
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T213722
CREATED:20231223T222003Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:63673-1264743000-1264743000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Climate Change\, Environmental Degradation\, Tibet and Implications for South Asian Security
DESCRIPTION:The paper presenter’s aim was to create a new discourse that treats Tibet as a regional\, if not a global\, commons that has wide-ranging implications for all of South Asia from being a source of many important rivers to controlling the Monsoons. Such a discourse that highlights Tibet as being crucial for a wider humanity will put pressure on China to review its activities in Tibet which is resulting in severe ecological degradation. The most pressing problem seems to be the impact on the rivers that flow downwards into the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia which will all face a considerable reduction in runoff with the receding of glaciers.  \nThe speaker looked at the following 3 aspects through the course of his paper: \n\nThe impact of human activity in Tibet and the changing climate on the countries dependent on this ecosystem.\nThe diversion of rivers originating in Tibet by China.\nPolicies for co-operation and peaceful resolution of conflict.\n\nWhile elaborating on the first point\, it was pointed out how the urbanization of Tibet with infrastructure building\, extension of railways and roads\, and conversion of grasslands will result in demographic changes that will impact the local ways of living. All these factors will\, in turn\, change the nature of the local ecosystem. For example\, the nomads’ lifestyle ensured that the delicate balance of the fragile ecosystem was not disturbed.  \nGlaciers are an important aspect of this ecosystem. However\, there is much contention over whether or not they are melting at a rapid rate (or melting at all). This is due to a dearth of information or facts regarding them. India has around 9\,575 glaciers but research has been done on only 25-30 of them. Thus\, the difficulty of drawing any definite conclusions. However\, the presenter insisted that the people of the Himalayas have noticed the change and he quoted Chewang Norphel who said “I am the scientific data”\, i.e. one doesn’t need a scientific authority to certify what is obvious to the people living there.”    \nDiversion of rivers and construction of dams by the Chinese on rivers like Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) or the tributaries of Indus and Sutlej will adversely affect the lower riparian states. China’s increased control of river water will mean an increased security threat for the others. \nThe speaker asserted that a major obstacle to studying the impact of the diversion of rivers is posed by the lack of scientific data that is available in the public domain. The lack of transparency in terms of information results in analysts having to make intelligent guesses. \nIncorporating China in the Indus Water Treaty is one of the solutions proposed for peaceful co-operation as well as a consolidated effort by all the countries of the region to conduct scientific studies on the environmental degradation of the ecosystem caused due to man-made activity and climate change. \nUltimately\, the crux of the presenter’s argument was that a discourse that regards Tibet as a regional (or global) common should be created in order to prevent any adverse effects on other lower riparian countries that would result from unilateral Chinese diversion of rivers in Tibet. \nShri M.S. Menon made some pertinent observations on the issues brought up in this paper. Most importantly he highlighted the confusion regarding global warming\, climate change\, and glacier melts since the causes and effects are “not very clear”. Not to mention\, scientific data can be manipulated to suit particular agendas. He also pointed out that studies regarding the role vegetation cover (including that in Tibet) plays on monsoons are incomplete.  \nThe presenter’s fear of Chinese diversion of rivers and its security implications were reinforced by Shri Menon. Unlike B.G. Verghese who claims that it is near impossible for China to divert water from these rivers due to the terrain\, Menon asserted that China was more than capable of accomplishing such a feat. His remedy for this problem is that India should build a dam in Arunachal Pradesh in order to control the flow of the Brahmaputra. \nThe lack of data on the water flow of rivers should also be addressed. In border areas where civilians are not allowed\, the army should step in to take measurements. In terms of exchange of data between India and China\, the best area to bring up this issue would be in forums concerning biodiversity since they are signatories of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and project an image of concern for the environment in this regard. He also supported the idea of a reworked IWT that included China. \nDr. A.P. Dimri discussed the technical aspects of climate change and how the Himalayas play a major role in controlling the monsoons\, which is why the topography of Tibet should be looked at in more detail. He also talked about the need to look at regional dynamics of climate change. Cycles of heating and cooling have always existed\, however\, what we should be worried about is the anthropogenic forces that are contributing to climate change.  \nThe discussant explained how the debate around the melting of glaciers is extremely complicated and cannot have a simple answer. Glaciers are viscoplastic in nature. So what might be considered as glaciers melting might actually be a geological phenomenon of glaciers just breaking up. A lot more work needs to be done in this area before anything concrete can be ascertained. He also mentioned that satellite imagery is not entirely reliable data since it does not cover the area throughout the season so one cannot make accurate interpretations.  \nThe internal discussants\, Jaganath Panda and Avinash Godbole\, also raised important points. The former talked about the Chinese strategy that includes the restructuring of the industrialization process and a new focus on local industries in order to show that Tibetan industries are not being destroyed. He also discussed the reasons behind why China wanted to divert water in terms of geography\, social and national tension particularly with the drying up of the Yellow river.  He proposed SAARC and the UN as good forums in which India can engage with China. Godbole put forward two critical questions. First\, if Chinese activity in Tibet affects rivers’ flow to India\, it should also affect rivers flowing into China; so\, why would China want to harm their own water resources? Secondly\, can science and politics be separated? Even scientific data can be manipulated for particular ends.  \nThe Chair\, Arvind Gupta\, summed up the discussions by claiming that we should “learn to live with uncertainty” and evolve precautionary principles rather than keep waiting for concrete data to act. He asserted that China feels secure with its Tibet policies and the diversions of the rivers. It becomes an important strategic tool to engage India in larger Sino-Indian relations.  \nThe report has been prepared by Shubha Kamala Prasad\, an intern at IDSA.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/climate-change-environmental-degradation-tibet-and-implications-for-south-asian-security
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100129T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T213722
CREATED:20231223T222005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:63674-1264743000-1264743000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Indo-Africa Narcotics Ties
DESCRIPTION:During the Cold War\, there was a complete focus on the military competition because these two things projected as power and increase security of the states. Given the evolving nature of conflict however\, this no longer holds true. New “soft” threats pose bigger hazards to human beings today. There has been a need to redefine classical security paradigms along the lines of new threats such as internal conflicts\, money laundering\, human rights\, trafficking\, illicit drugs trade\, etc.  \nOne of the non-traditional security threats is the menace of Narcotics Trafficking (NT) and organized transnational crime (OTC). NT today is a problem that exists at the national and at the international level. The narcotics trafficking business is the second largest industry in the world valued at approximately $500 billion in 1994 and approximately $322 billion in 2007\, following the arms sales business only. Production and refining of drugs and the consumption of these drugs almost inevitably happens in two different areas\, so narcotics trade is inherently suited to be a transnational crime. In some instances\, narco-trafficking tends to harm the state because money laundered indirectly or directly makes its way into fuelling separatist groups\, insurgents\, and terrorists\, thus permitting non-state actors to take on the state. Despite this\, many states tend to view narcotics as a domestic or internal security matter.   \nIndia is uniquely placed in the global illicit drugs trade\, sandwiched between the “Golden Triangle” of the North-East and the “Golden Crescent” of the North-West. India is also used as a transit point for drugs from South and South-East Asia onwards to Europe. The profitability of the drugs trade has been made possible by the fact that India is surrounded by weak states with endemic corruption. India’s own security has become intrinsically tied to the strength of states not only within its immediate neighborhood but also at a distance.  \nPresently\, India is not only an exporter of locally grown and/or manufactured drugs\, it is also on the receiving end and serves as a major transit hub in the global narcotics network. India’s connections with Africa\, as well as Africans operating in the rest of the South Asian region\, have single-handedly emerged as one of the gravest and most complex “invisible” security dilemmas. In India alone\, hundreds of Africans are languishing in prisons around the country on drug related offenses. An average of one ton of heroine alone is seized every year all over India. Pockets of African communities in Goa\, Rajasthan and the South often use tourists for “quick trades” or as carriers for transporting drugs to foreign destinations.   \nThere are three types of players involved in NT– “drug barons”\, “strikers” and “couriers”. A drug baron is usually someone who has risen to significance over time and due to the extent of their involvement. The narcotics trafficking menace\, and its associated destabilizing effects\, impacts all levels of society – locally\, nationally and internationally. India today has the highest rate of opiate users in the South Asian region of approximately 3.2 million. In a national survey conducted in 2001-2002 by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment it was estimated that about 73.2 million people were users of alcohol and drugs. Narcotics addiction among the Indian populace has increased hand in hand with the spread of diseases. Use of synthetic drugs and intravenous drug use\, especially in the North-East states\, has led to the spread of HIV/AIDS among drug users\, introducing a newer grave element to the crisis. Narco-Trafficking has resulted in human security and economic security impacts in India. While legislation under the NDPS Act remains strict\, it does not include the socio-cultural uses of drugs in the Indian context. \nPoints in the Discussion:\n\nNeed to study the involvement of African countries in NT because not all African countries are involved in it.\nAfrican governments do not intervene to control the traffickers particularly in the case of Somalia\, and the percentage of drugs smugglers has increased today. \nThe Role of International Agencies such as the IMF to control the narcotics trade should be discussed in detail.\nNeed to analyze the agencies that provide support to drug traffickers.\nNeed to focus on why Nigeria became the hub of NT\, other countries like Ghana also became the hub but Nigeria is the most populous country in the region\, so its involvement is greater than others.\nHow has globalization created new forms of socialization to control the consumption of drugs?\nWhy Nigeria become the hub for the narcotics trade?\n\nPrepared by M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi\, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/indo-africa-narcotics-ties
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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