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TZID:Asia/Kolkata
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0530
TZOFFSETTO:+0530
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DTSTART:20080101T000000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091023T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091023T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T220908
CREATED:20231223T222010Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:63681-1256275800-1256275800@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Limitation in Nuclear War: Doctrinal Implication for India of Pakistani Nuclear Use
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Aditya SinghDiscussants: R. Dahiya and Gaurav Kampani \nAim and Scope\nImplications of Pakistani nuclear use for India’s nuclear and conventional doctrine. This paper revisits the ‘Sundarji doctrine’ to assess its suitability for limitation and termination of nuclear war. In a nutshell\, the ‘Sundarji doctrine’ calls for termination of a nuclear war at the lowest level of escalation. \nThe paper then intends to recommend the institution of a standing strategic dialogue mechanism with Pakistan to enable limitation in conflict\, even a nuclear one. The continuing imperative of limitation even in nuclear war compels a review of India’s conventional and nuclear doctrines.  \nSummary\nThe speaker validated the argument that nuclear initiation\, in the context of a future India-Pakistan war\, is with Pakistan. Therefore its implication on India’s nuclear and conventional doctrine would emerge. While validating such an argument the speaker put forth the following arguments. \n\nDemocracy as the chosen political system in India\nIndia’s war strategy which is offensive\, broad front\, highly lethal\, short duration and red line cognisant vis-à-vis Pakistan’s counter strategy which is likely to comprise war avoidance\, conventional defence\, counter offensive with strategic reserves if possible\, and a resort to asymmetric war.\nNine factors which contribute to deterrence instability are:\n\n‘First use’ not ruled out by Pakistan\nPakistan’s lack of strategic depth\nQuestions about the credibility of India’s nuclear doctrine\nMomentum of conflict\nStrategic rationale of the Pakistan army\nRight wing pressure in Pakistan\nFog of war\nNuclear signaling\n\n\nThe possibility of nuclear use increases with the increase in threat to vital interests. Nuclear threat would heighten as the war progresses and the weaker the Pakistan army gets\, especially if it is apprehensive about India’s aims.\n\nHaving put forth the context of future conflict dimensions between India and Pakistan\, the speaker then described the “nuclear dimension of the conflict” and nuclear strike (first) options located within it. \nThe speaker downplayed “decapitation strike” and “first strike” as viable options. Thereby arguing that nuclear use options of a lower order may appear more attractive. The speaker cited the advantages of late nuclear use as it would not be unambiguously illegitimate in case Pakistan is faced with extinction as a state. Pakistan would be resorting to it at a stage in the war when it is vulnerable\, possibly having exhausted other military options.  \nIn essence the paper argued that late nuclear use could prove more dangerous and damaging to India than early use. \nExternal Discussant I (R. Dahiya)\n\nNuclear weapons are not for use\, but to deter others from using them.\nWill rationality prevail in a scenario of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan?\nThe imperative of controlling the escalation ladder especially by India at every stage of the conflict.\n\nExternal Discussant II (Gaurav Kampani)\n\nThe paper must also include the naval and air dimensions and not restrict itself to the land component.\nInclude a discussion on Pakistan’s civil-military relations\nThe paper must reduce its dependence on secondary sources and include primary sources such as interviews of retired and serving officers of the armed forces.\nThe paper also needs to be clear as to what “cold-start” doctrine actually is.\n\nPrepared by S.Rajasimman\, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/limitation-in-nuclear-war-doctrinal-implication-for-india-of-pakistani-nuclear-use
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091023T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091023T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T220908
CREATED:20231224T104458Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250228T054322Z
UID:64195-1256275800-1256275800@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Sky's no Limit: An Evaluation of Space-based Solar Power as the Next Major Step in the Indo-US Strategic Partnership
DESCRIPTION:Only by Invitation 1030 to 1300 hrs\nChair: Jasjit Singh\nDiscussants: V. Siddhartha and Subodh Kumar
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/skys-no-limit-an-evaluation-of-space-based-solar-power-as-the-next-major-step-in-the-indo-us-strategic-partnership
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR
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END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091030T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091030T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T220908
CREATED:20231223T222010Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250228T053835Z
UID:63680-1256880600-1256880600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:GCC - Iran Relations and its Strategic Implications for the Region
DESCRIPTION:Only by Invitation 1030 to 1300 hrs \nChairperson: Saeed NaqviDiscussants: Gulshan Dietl and Anwar Alam \nThe uneasy relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran is one of the main reasons for the continuing conflict in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has difficult relations with both the GCC and its individual members. With the passage of time\, several other contentious issues have emerged\, including the Iranian nuclear programme\, Iran’s island disputes with the UAE\, Saudi-Iran tensions\, ideological differences\, and the strong military presence of the United States in the GCC countries. This paper examines the sources of conflict between the GCC and Iran and analyzes its strategic implications for the Gulf region.   \nThe presence of the United States in the region has been the primary source of tension between the GCC and Iran. Iran has been concerned about the presence of US forces in the region. Tehran accuses the GCC of allowing external powers like the US to maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf. On the other hand\, the GCC countries are dependent on the US for security. The ideological rivalry between the two and several clashes between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi security forces during the recent Hajj pilgrimage has added fuel to the conflict. That apart\, Saudi support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war\, Iran’s nuclear programme\, and regional competition have been major issues of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia which has also affected the GCC-Iran relationship. \nGCC-Iran tensions are manifested in Iraq which is going through a major transition. Iran is seen as attempting to influence various sections of Iraqi society and polity to gain influence. In post-Saddam Iraq\, Iran has moved from confrontation to cooperation. The GCC states are concerned that Sunni Arabs have been marginalized in the new Iraq and that Iran has come to exercise too much influence over the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. There is also a worry that Iranians in Iraq may engage in subversive activities against GCC countries and that the civil war may actually spill over into their territories. \nThe friction in GCC-Iran relations is leading to nuclear competition. In 2006 GCC announced its intention to establish a joint nuclear research programme which is primarily driven by their concern over the expanding Iranian nuclear programme. They are also concerned about Iran’s aggressive foreign policy posture in the whole of the West Asian region that includes Iraq\, Lebanon\, and the Palestinian Territories. Individual countries of the GCC have also started their own nuclear programmes. This has led to big nuclear powers strengthening their foothold in the region. Apart from that the interests of the external powers also lie in securing energy supplies\, selling their weapons to GCC countries and establishing military bases in the Gulf. \nThere have been some efforts at reconciliation between Iran and GCC countries though without any tangible results. The issues of contention between the two are serious. This makes the possibility of rapprochement look bleak in the near future. The clash of interests\, the scramble for influence in the region\, and the lack of mutual trust and goodwill have not allowed them to look for an amicable solution. \nPoints raised in the Discussion:\n\nThere is a need to go beyond the Shia-Sunni divide in the region. Alternative perceptions such as ‘Persians vs. Arabs’ or of conflicting ‘national interests’ need to be factored in and analysed to explain why old issues tend to trouble the relationship today.\nThe role of external powers in the region should be examined in greater detail. Iran is worried about the presence and influence of the United States in the region\, because the GCC states are dependent on the US for security. On the other hand\, Israel’s nuclear weapons are a threat for Iran while Iran’s nuclear programme is a threat to Israel.\nThe US-Iraq SOFA accord should not create problems for Iran. Under the terms of the agreement American forces cannot launch an attack on any other country from Iraqi territory.\nThe 10-point proposal made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad needs to be analyzed in detail because these proposals give a clear indication of Iran’s policy and ambitions in the region.\n\nPrepared by Dr. M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi\, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/gcc-iran-relations-and-its-strategic-implications-for-the-region
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR,EVENT REPORT
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091030T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20091030T053000
DTSTAMP:20261104T220908
CREATED:20231224T104453Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231224T130248Z
UID:64194-1256880600-1256880600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Military Modernisation in Southeast Asia: China Factor or Interstate Conflicts?
DESCRIPTION:Chairperson: Ramesh V PhadkeDiscussants: Chintamani Mahapatra and Shishir Upadhyaya
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/military-modernisation-in-southeast-asia-china-factor-or-interstate-conflicts
CATEGORIES:FELLOW'S SEMINAR
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