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SUMMARY:15th Asian Security Conference: Emerging Trends in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications
DESCRIPTION:Concept Note\n\n\nWest   Asia is in the midst of tumultuous changes which presage  the emergence of a new and different set of security and economic challenges  and new patterns of relationships\, both within the region and with countries  having major stakes and interests in the region.  \nThough the region has witnessed  turbulence for several decades\, there was\, perhaps surprisingly\, considerable  domestic stability within individual countries mainly due to the relatively  unchallengeable control that regimes exercised over their populations. However\,  quite unexpectedly\, there has been an unprecedented popular upsurge against the  ruling regimes in many countries in the Arab world during the last few years\,  leading to regime changes in certain cases. Characterised by outside observers  as the “Arab Spring”\, some regional commentators have expressed their concerns  about the developments\, terming these as the “Arab Turmoil”. The essence of the  socio-political tumult sweeping the region has been such that the people at  large have overcome their fear of the existing regimes and called for drastic  and fundamental political transformation\, including regime change. This has led  to dramatic changes in domestic political environments in most of the countries  of the region.   \n                   Another major consequence is that the  sectarian divide\, which has long been an issue within the Islamic world and  particularly in the Gulf region\, has flared up acutely between the Gulf Arab States and Iran over the past two years. The  fallout of this growing confrontation is reflected throughout West Asia and in Syria  in particular. Intervention by non-regional powers has only compounded  problems. The Gulf region has\, therefore\, become the primary hub of attention  and concern in West Asia.  \n                  The most emblematic  feature of the global scenario of the past three decades has been the fact that  Asia is in the process of displacing the West as the fulcrum of the global  economy\, and China and India  are its leading locomotives. The major Asian economies\, both developed and  still developing\, have collectively become the largest purchasers of  hydrocarbons from the Gulf region. Their demands are projected to keep  increasing substantially. The Gulf region’s role as an energy supplier for Asia  will\, therefore\, continue to enlarge incrementally for the foreseeable future\,  even as America’s and Europe’s requirements of oil and gas from the Gulf region  are projected to diminish dramatically. Indeed\, even beyond the hydrocarbons  factor\, other links of trade\, investment and huge migrations of people\, albeit  temporary\, between the Gulf region and the rest of Asia have been growing  rapidly; and all this suggest that Asia’s overall economic relationship between  the Gulf region is also poised to overtake that with the Western world.  \n                  The net result is that  stronger strategic synergies in the fields of energy\, economic and people-to-people  relations among the Asian countries and countries of the Gulf region are making  the latter an integral part of the unfolding Asian growth story. Therefore\, on  the one hand\, the significance of its connections with the rest of Asia is a strategic factor of growing importance for the  Gulf region; on the other\, peace and stability in the Gulf region are becoming  factors of increasing strategic\, and even existential\, significance for the  major Asian countries.   \n                  Against this backdrop\,  the 15th annual Asian Security Conference (ASC) held at the Institute for  Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi\, will deliberate on the major economic\,  socio-political and strategic trends which are unfolding in the West Asian  region in general\, and its Gulf region in particular\, in the context of their  security and economic implications both for the region and for Asian countries.  Given Asia’s increasing interest and involvement with the region\, the security  and stability of West Asia has become a vital  imperative for Asian countries. Therefore\, the special theme of the 15th ASC  would be to explore the possibilities of the involvement of Asian countries in  the changing and evolving security dynamics and architecture of the Gulf  region. \n                  The conference will  address these issues under eight sessions as listed below. \nI Political Transformation in West Asia: Prospects for Peace\,  Stability and Prosperity\n                  The session intends to  address the following questions: \n\nWhat  are the root causes of political transformation in West   Asia?\n What are the economic\, political\,  religious/sectarian\, social\, foreign policy-related\, etc.\, factors responsible  for the popular protests against the rulers?  \nHow  can we analyse current domestic scenarios\, including the outcomes till date\,  explaining the unique features of recent events in Bahrain\,  Egypt\, Libya\, Syria\,  Tunisia and Yemen? \n\nII Future of Political  Transformation in West Asia\n                  This session is expected  to address the prospects for democracy\, the role of political Islam\, the  consequences of the sectarian divide\, the requirements for nation building\,  etc.\, in specific domestic contexts as well as their impact on inter-state  relations in West Asia. In this context\, the  session will deliberate on the following: \n\nAre  further regime changes likely? \nWhat  will be the impact of the rise of Islamists to power on the region and beyond?\nWhat  are the new challenges before the countries/people under the new regimes in  place? \n\nThough Egypt\, Syria  and Yemen  would be specifically considered here\, the potential impact in the energy-rich  Gulf Kingdoms will also be examined\, as it would have enormous implications for  the world at large\, thus meriting particular focus.  \nIII & IV West Asia’s  Security Dynamics-I: Role of Extra Regional Powers; West   Asia’s Security Dynamics II: Role of  Regional Powers\n                  This session would  discuss the security implications of evolving events from the perspectives of Iran and Saudi Arabia\, the two pre-eminent  regional players\, bearing in mind the current security architecture in the  region. Interests and roles of major powers and other non-regional countries  would also be the focus of deliberations during this session. It will address\,  in particular\, the roles of the US\,  Russia\, China\, Turkey\,  Egypt and Israel. Some important questions  addressed during this session would include: \n\nWhat  are the interests and stakes of these powers in the region?\nHow  would their actions and likely policies affect the evolution of the  geopolitical contours of West Asia\, bearing in  mind the current security architecture in the region?\n\nV   India and the Gulf: \n                  India  shares with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries cultural commonalities  and compatibilities\, geographical proximity and 5\,000 years of continuous\,  close and unbroken interaction. Furthermore\, in contrast to most world powers\, India  has never sought domination or influence\, either politically or territorially\,  or with respect to economic and natural resources in this region. It may also  be pertinent to note here that India  has the world’s third-largest Muslim population.  \n                  The GCC countries  constitute India’s largest socio-economic partner\, as manifested by five sets  of facts: (1) almost 6.5 million people from India live and work in the GCC  countries and constitute about 35 per cent of the total expatriate population\,  making them the foreign nationality of first preference in this region overall  as well as in each GCC country\, and the largest chunk of Indian nationals in  any region abroad. (2) About $32 billion were sent home as remittances last  year\, the largest from any part of the world. (3) The GCC countries are India’s  largest trade partner with trade in 2011–12 being about $120 billion\, far  outstripping the financial volumes of such ties with any other region of the  world. (4) They supply 63 per cent of India’s hydrocarbon imports. (5)  Over 50 per cent of flight connections between India  and the world are between India  and the GCC countries.  \n                  The past decade has seen  an explosion of high-level political interaction and the emergence of  strategically significant relationships. No major country has an even remotely  comparable basket of linkages with the GCC countries; this simply cannot be  matched by any major power in the world.  \n                  Moving beyond dwelling  on these aspects alone\, this session would explore: \n\nHow  can India  further strengthen its relations with the Gulf region? \nWhat  are the possible pitfalls?\nWhat  are the expectations of the countries of the region from India and vice versa\, and are there  any divergences in mutual expectations?\n How can India and the countries of the  region forge strategies of cooperation in new areas of mutual concern such as  defence and security?\n\nVI Nuclear Issues in West Asia \n                  One of the major international security concerns over the past decade has  been about the Iranian nuclear programme and responses to it by countries like  the US and Israel. While Iranian engagement  with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Permanent 5+1 in the  United Nations Security Council (UNSC) continues\, no mutually acceptable  formula has yet been arrived at to address these concerns. The future contours  of developments relating to the issue will have major repercussions on regional  strategic stability. The responses of Iran’s  neighbours as well as major powers like the US will be crucial\, given the  extant security and trust deficits. The Iran  issue as well as Israeli nuclear capabilities adds to the complexities in  progressing towards a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) in West Asia. The session will seek to explore dynamics  related to these issues in an area of critical importance to India’s economic and strategic  well-being. Some of the questions that will be explored include those discussed  below.  \n\nWhat is the status of  Iranian engagement with the international community over its suspected nuclear  programme\, including at the IAEA\, UNSC\, P5+1\, and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)\,  among others?\nWhat have been the policy  responses of Iran’s  neighbourhood to its suspected nuclear programme?\nWhat is the possibility of  success of efforts geared towards establishing a Middle East WMDFZ?\nWhat have been the  repercussions for India  as a result of the developments relating to the Iranian nuclear issue? And\, what  will be the likely challenges in the foreseeable future?   \n\nVII Round Table:   Role  of Asia in Evolving Security Dynamics and  Architecture of the Gulf Region\n                  The session will explore  possibilities of involvement of Asian countries in the changing and evolving  security dynamics and architecture of the Gulf region. \nVIII Panel Discussion on Way  Ahead \n                  The region is in  unprecedented flux; it could witness considerably more churning and yet more  regime changes. In this context\, this session will explore the possible impact  of these uncertainties\, including drawing up alternative plausible scenarios on  India’s  future relationships with the Gulf region.  \n                  Some important questions  that would be considered are:  \n\nWhat  could be possible options of enhancing the strategic engagement of Asian  countries with this strategically important region in future?\nShould  India  remain content with a strong economic relationship with the region\, or should  it play a more pro-active role?\nWhat  are the major trends in the Gulf security situation? \nWhat  is the current level of engagement/involvement of regional and extra-regional  powers in the West Asian region? \nHow  is the Iranian nuclear programme going to impact the security dynamics of the  region? \nWhat  will be the response of regional and extra-regional players in future?\nWill  there be new set of re-alignments among regional partners?\nWill  US\, Russia and China  cooperate in future or engage in escalating confrontation? \nWill  regional security paradigms change? What would be the likely changes?\nWhat will be the security implications of the changing  energy scenario—fluctuating oil prices\, the phenomenon of shale oil\, among  others? \n\n\n\n\n\nProgramme Schedule\n\n\nDay 1:  Wednesday\, February 13\, 2013\n                0900-0930h:  Registration & Tea  \n                  0930-1030h: Inaugural  Session \n                    Welcome Remarks  by Dr. Arvind Gupta\, Director General\, IDSA\nKey Note Address by Hon’ble Raksha Mantri \n                  Vote of Thanks:  Brig. (Retd.) Rumel Dahiya\, Deputy Director General\, IDSA\n                   \n                  1030-1100h: High Tea  \n  \n                  1100-1300h: Session I:  Political Transformation in West Asia:  Prospects for Peace\, Stability and Prosperity \n                  Chair: Amb. Chinmaya  Gharekhan Amb. Talmiz Ahmad: Islamist  Discourse and Politics in the Aftermath of the Arab SpringDr. Ahmed al Wahishi:West   Asia in Transitional Period of  International OrderDr. Hadi Soleimanpour: Political Transformation in West Asia: An Iranian PerspectiveProf. Tim Niblock: The Future of Political  Transformation in West Asia \n  \n                  1300-1400h: Lunch \n                  1400-1600h: Session II: Future of Political Transformation in West Asia \n                  Chair: Prof. Gulshan  DietlDr.  Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar: Potential Strategic Cooperation among Pivotal States in Western AsiaMr. Atul  Aneja:  Silencing Alternative Media: Soft  Power and the Arab Spring Dr.  Ahmed A. Saif:  Emerging Trends in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications    Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla: Impact of the Arab  Spring on the Arab Gulf States \n                  Prof. Amin  Saikal: The Changing Political and Strategic  Environment in West Asia \n  \n                  1600-1630h: Tea \n                  1630-1830h: Session  III: West Asia’s Security Dynamics-I: Role of  Extra-Regional Powers \n                  Chair: Amb. Rajendra  Madhukar Abhyankar\nMr. Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia and “Arab spring”: What’s at Stake? \nDr. Julie Taylor: US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Combatting the Realist Resurgence Prof. Yang Guang: West Asia’s Security Dynamics: A Chinese  Perspective Mr. Waiel Awwad: The New Great Power Game Plan in West AsiaMr. M. Ashraf  Azim: Stabilizing West   AsiaProf. P R Kumaraswamy:  Realpolitik of the ‘Self-Appointed  Frontrunner’ for the UNSC \n  \nDay 2: Thursday\,  February 14\, 2013\n                  0930-1000h: Tea  \n                  1000-1245 h: Session IV:  West Asia’s Security Dynamics-II: Role of Regional  Powers \n                  Chair: Amb. Ranjit  GuptaProf. Efraim Inbar: The  2011 Arab Uprisings and Israel’s  National SecurityProf. Mohammad Hassan Khani: Arab Spring as National  Revolutions with Regional Dimensions and Global Impacts: An Iranian PerspectiveDr. Serhat  Güvenç: Role of Turkey in West Asia’s  Security DynamicsDr. Adel Soliman: Dynamic Security in West Asia and the Role of Regional Powers: An Egyptian\nPerspective  \n  \n                  1245-1345h: Lunch  \n                  1430-1630h: Session V: India and the  Gulf \n                  Chair: Amb. Ishrat AzizProf. Girijesh Pant: Premising India-Gulf Relation in the  Context of Arab UprisingMs.  Shebonti Ray Dadwal:Impact of ‘Arab Spring’ on Energy MarketsDr. Sami Alfaraj:India and the GCCDr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla: ndia and the Gulf: A Perspective from UAE\n \n  \n                1545-1600h: Tea \n                  1600-1745h: Session VI: Nuclear Issues in  West Asia \n                  Chair: Air Commodore (Retd.) Jasjit Singh\, AVSM\, VRC\, VM\, IAFDr. Mahmoud  Karem:Nuclear Issues in West Asia: Egyptian Perspective Prof. Rajesh Rajagopalan: Nuclear Issues in West Asia: An Indian Perspective Dr. Ephraim Kam: The  Iranian Nuclear ThreatProf. Mohammad  Hassan Khani:Iranian Nuclear Issue: Different Views\,  Scenarios\, and Consequences    \n  \n                    \nDay 3: Friday\, February  15\, 2013\n                  0930-1000h: Tea  \n                  1000-1030h:  Special Address by Shri Shivshankar Menon\, National  Security Adviser\, Government of India   \n                  1030-1045h: Tea  \n                  1045-1245h: Session VII: Roundtable on  Role of Asia in Evolving Security Dynamics and  Architecture of the Gulf Region \n                  Chair: Shri Sanjay  SinghProf. Timothy C. Niblock:  The Role of Asia  in the Evolving Security Dynamics and Architecture of the Gulf RegionAmb.  Ranjit Gupta: Role of Asia  in the Evolving Security Dynamics of the Gulf RegionAmb.  Talmiz Ahmad:  Islamist Discourse and Politics in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring \n  \n                  1245-1330h: Lunch \n                  1330-1500h: Session  VIII: Panel Discussion on Way Ahead \n                  Chair: Dr. Arvind GuptaPanellists: \n                    Shri Rajeev  Shahare\, Joint Secretary\, West Asia and North Africa Division (WANA)\, Ministry  of External Affairs\, Government of India\nShri A R  Ghanashyam\, Joint Secretary\, Gulf Division\, Ministry of External Affairs\, Government  of India\nBrig. (Retd.) Rumel  Dahiya\, Deputy Director General\, IDSA\nAmb. Ishrat Aziz\nProf. Mohammad Hassan Khani\nDr. Sami Alfaraj\nAmb. Talmiz Ahmad\nDr. Adel Soliman\nAmb. Prakash Shah \n  \n   1530h: Vote of Thanks: Dr. Meena Singh Roy\, Conference Coordinator \n\n\n\n\nConference Booklet\nRapporteurs Report
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/15th-asian-security-conference-emerging-trends-in-west-asia-regional-and-global-implications
CATEGORIES:Asian Security Conference,Previous ASC,CONFERENCES
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