BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//MP-IDSA - ECPv6.15.12.2//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:MP-IDSA
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://idsa.in
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for MP-IDSA
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Asia/Kolkata
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0530
TZOFFSETTO:+0530
TZNAME:IST
DTSTART:20090101T000000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100211T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20100213T053000
DTSTAMP:20261105T203711
CREATED:20231223T125734Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250309T014158Z
UID:62802-1265866200-1266039000@idsa.in
SUMMARY:12th Asian Security Conference: Asian Strategic Futures 2030 : Trends\, Scenarios and Alternatives
DESCRIPTION:Concept Note\n\nAs human history shows future is always uncertain. Even so\, there are forecasts on the possibility of Asian countries like China and India overtaking the US by 2030 and 2050 respectively in the economic sphere with agencies like the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Goldman Sachs already predicting the decline of the US and the rise of Asia. Whether Asian states will continue with the present pace of their economic growth or lose momentum needs to be examined in order to plan for the uncertainties and sudden breaks that may materialize in the future.Identified amongst the potential drivers of future change are economic growth\, climate change\, demographics\, urbanization\, migration\, resource competition\, technology\, military modernization\, globalization\, nationalism and identity politics\, radical movements\, extremism and terrorism\, etc. \nThe objective of the 12th Asian Security Conference 2010 is to explore in some depth key drivers of change in Asia and examine possible trends\, scenarios and alternatives\, which can affect geopolitics and security environment.  The idea is not so much to engage in an exercise to predict the future as it is to scan the emerging geo-political terrain and offer some guide posts to planners\, policy makers and those interested in international politics and security. \nThe conference will have nine inter-related sessions focused on understanding the key drivers of change and imagining alternative scenarios of Asia’s future. While the timeline of 2030 is a useful method indicating a particular frame of reference\, it is not expected to be viewed rigidly and scholars could make their projections for Asia’s future covering roughly above the period. \nThe clutch of inter-related issues identified for the different sessions are:\n\nSession I: Economic Growth\, Globalisation\, Poverty and Equity.\nSession II : Climate Change\, Environment\, Energy\, Water and Resources.\nSession III: Demography\, Migration and Urbanization.\nSession IV : Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society.\nSession V : Asian Militaries and the Future of War.\nSession VI : WMD Weapons and International Security.\nSession VII : Society\, Identity\, Religion\, and Governance.\nSession VIII : Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives.\nSession IX : Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios.\n\nThe key questions addressed across the sessions could include among others: \n\nWhat are the key challenges likely to be faced by Asian Countries in 2030?\nHow will the assessment of comprehensive national power change by 2030?\nWhat are the potential areas of conflict that must be considered for Asia in 2030?\nWhat kind of regional institutional frameworks are needed to avert future conflicts in Asia?\n\n Session I\nTheme: Economic Growth\, Globalization\, Poverty and Equity \nUnder the globalization process\, many Asian countries with their liberal economic policies\, large domestic savings and substantial private capital inflows have grown rapidly. Although globalization has brought economic dividends\, it has also adversely impacted Asian economies. Economic disparities\, downturn\, and unemployment are a few negative consequences. \nSome of the questions that could be addressed during the session are:- \n\nWhat are the likely trajectories of economic growth and globalisation in Asia? What would be Asia’s economic and trade scenario in 2030?\nHow would projected trends affect poverty & equity?\nWhat mechanisms are states likely to adopt to ward off the negative consequences of globalization by 2030? How will “protectionism” affect the forces of globalization?\nHow will the weak economies safeguard their interests amidst the presence of global forces in 2030?\nWhat will be the consequences of intra and inter-state disparities?\n\nSession II\nTheme: Climate Change\, Environment\, Energy\, Water and Resources \nClimate change is regarded as one of the gravest non-traditional security threats faced by the international community today. Climate change may have profound implications for environment; energy; water resources; human settlements\, urbanization\, infrastructure and even military operations. \nThe session is proposed to be devoted to addressing\, inter-alia\, the following key questions:- \n\nHow will climate change impact Asia and its international politics?\nWill resource depletion result in conflict or cooperation among the states in Asia by 2030?\nHow will climate and resource depletion impact regime stability in Asia? Will it aid extremism in the region?\nWhat kind of challenges is Asia likely to face in meeting its Energy\, Water and other critical resources requirement?\n\nSession III\nTheme: Demography\, Migration and Urbanization\nIn the last few decades\, most countries in Asia have experienced a demographic transition more rapid than any other region. Falling mortality and fertility rates\, declining youth dependency rate and rising old-age dependency rate\, etc. will have potentially serious economic implications for the region’s future.  Spatial mobility is predicted to be on the rise in Asia in the coming years\, particularly in the spheres of occupational mobility and rural to urban mobility.  If such prediction becomes a reality\, most of the countries in Asia\, including India and China will cease to be rural majority countries in the next 30/40 years. In the long run\, all these will eventually have negative impact on food security for the highly populous countries like India and China.\nThe key questions for this session could include: \n\nWhat are the expected demographic patterns for Asia in 2030?\nWhat are the implications of these trends for Asian countries’ economic development?\nWhat will be the impact of demographic trends and migration on intra-state or inter-state conflicts?\nHow is urbanization likely to affect the continent?\n\nSession IV: \nTheme: Transformational Technologies and their Impact on Society\nThe 20th century witnessed many significant technological breakthroughs\, particularly in sectors of communication\, transportation and medical sciences. The last few decades of that century were dominated by miraculous developments in information technology. From telephones to computers\, cars to state-of-the art aircrafts\, high altitude balloons to spacecrafts\, e-dictionaries to Internet and vaccines to stem cell research dominated the field of technology development. The 21st century began with the birth of aerospace technology and ended up revolutionizing the war doctrines of various militaries. New technologies in the areas of information technology\, space\, solar power\, robotics\, nanotechnology\, biotechnology\, genetic engineering etc. are likely to shape the future of humankind. \nThe key questions to be addressed in this session could be:- \n\nWhich technologies are likely to prove strategically significant?  How will they shape the future?\nWhat will be the impact of these technologies on Asian strategic scenarios in 2030?\nHow will they impact war? Can they be harnessed for peace?\n\nSession V: \nTheme: Asian Militaries and the Future of War\nAs the ideological fencing of the Cold War period withered away\, primordial fault lines have raised their head in the last two decades giving birth to multiple numbers of non-state actors who have continuously defied the modern nation states. As a result\, at present\, state centric inter-state conflicts are increasingly being replaced by intra-state cultural\, psychological or economic conflicts initiated by non-state actors. The future prospects of security therefore appear uncertain in which both state as a conventional source of security threat\, and non-state actors – independently or with the covert support of some states–will play their parts. Since the changes that have been observed in the post-Cold War era are still in the process of unfolding themselves\, the future course of wars and the shape of militaries remain valid subjects of study. \nThe key questions that could be addressed in this session are:- \n\nWhat will be the nature of conflicts in the next two decades?\nWill local and limited wars prove their utility under the shadow of nuclear deterrence?\nHow will Asian Militaries look like in 2030? What might be the inter-state balances among major powers?\n\nSession VI: \nTheme: WMD Weapons and International Security\nThe spread of WMDs-chemical\, biological\, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) – poses one of the most serious threats to international security because of their capacity for catastrophic destruction through a single attack.  A number of nuclear powers (China\, India\, Pakistan\, North Korea) and the world’s most advanced threshold nuclear states (South Korea\, Japan and Taiwan) are situated in Asia.  Over the years\, despite various efforts to check nuclear proliferation\, the technological barriers of acquiring nuclear weapons appear to be weakening. In fact\, for even weak and isolated countries like North Korea\, nuclear weapons have come to be treated as the only strategic ‘equalizer’ available to them to check US influence in the region. \nThe key questions to be addressed in this session could be:- \n\nHow would nuclear weapons affect security environment in 2030?\nWhat are the likely prospects of nuclear/CBRN terrorism in 2030?\nIs there a prospect for nuclear disarmament?\n\nSession VII: \nTheme: Society\, Identity\, Religion and Governance\nWhile the end of the Cold War diminished the role of ideology in international politics\, issues of society\, identity\, religion and governance have come to the forefront. Cultural fault-lines appear to be growing and religion in particular has acquired centre-stage in the anti-modernity and anti-modern-state discourse. Asian societies are seriously grappling with the challenge of reconciling individual and civil rights and yet developing as a strong state without paying a heavy price for their stability and prosperity. \nKey questions for this session could be:- \n\nWhat would be the relations between state and society in Asia in 2030?\nWhat will be the nature of governance in Asia in 2030?\nWill the modern-states be able to withstand pressures created by social and cultural actors in 2030?\nIs religion going to be a prime identity and defining principle in Asia in 2030?\nWill the terrorist organizations establish themselves as sole and authentic spokespersons of religion in 2030?\n\nSession VIII: \nTheme: Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives\nThe 21st century is projected to be the Asian century\, as future peace and stability in Asia and the world are likely to be determined by the policies to be pursued by five powers (India\, China\, Japan\, Russia and the US)\, for whom Asia is the meeting ground. The US’s extensive political\, economic and security interests\, and its overwhelming military presence in Asia makes it an important player in the region’s politics. As a major producer and exporter of critical energy resources\, Russia also enjoys a major role in determining Asian security. In recent years\, Japan too has begun to play a major role in regional and global affairs commensurate with its economic status. The rise of China and India\, and their expanding strategic reach and ambitions on the global stage could result in competition between them over power\, influence and energy resources. \nThe key questions to be addressed in this session could be:- \n\nWill economic issues continue to be the driving force in determining Asian security in 2030?\nWill relations between Asian states (especially India and China) be cooperative or conflictual in 2030? What will be the role of regional organizations in managing Asia’s rise?\nWill the US presence in the region diminish or continue to play a more stabilizing role in 2030?\nHow might other powers influence geopolitics in Asia?\n\nSession IX: \nTheme: Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios\nThis session will attempt to analyse the key factors/drivers (of change) impinging upon Asia’s future in 2030 based on the discussions on themes of the conference in the previous sessions. The identification of the key factors/drivers will be utilized to project and describe\, if not predict\, three to four future scenarios for Asia in 2030. These scenarios would have a high degree of uncertainty tagged to them. No matter how refined our methods in social science may become\, we cannot escape from the fact that all our knowledge is based on the past and present while all our policy decisions are about the future. Therefore\, studying the future is mostly an activity based on conjectures. In this regard\, the method of scenario-building could be employed to grasp a whole range of forces\, factors\, and possibilities that we could take note of while planning for the future of Asia in the next two decades. \n\n\n\n\nProgramme Schedule\n\n\nDay 1 (11 Feb 2010)\n0900h-0930h: Registration  \n0930h-1115h: Session I\nTheme\n: Economic Growth\, Globalisation\, Poverty & Equity \nChair: Mr. K. Subrahmanyam \nPaper I: Relative Growth of Nations: A View in the Mirror of History: Prof. Nayan Chanda\nPaper II: Future of Globalization and Neo-Liberal Trade: Mr. Mohan Guruswamy\nPaper III: State of Poverty\, Equity and Perceptions of Justice: Dr. Amita Baviskar\nPaper IV: State of Critical Infrastructure: Dr. Adrian V. Gheorghe \n1115h-1145h: Tea  \n1145h-1330h: Session II\nTheme\n: Climate Change\, Environment\, Energy\, Water and Resources \nChair: Amb. C Dasgupta\nPaper I: Asian Energy Scenarios: 2030: Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj\nPaper II: Energy Resource Competition: 2030: Mr. Ruth Greenspan Bell\nPaper II: Climate Change and Implications for Security: Dr. Stephan Harrison\nPaper III: Water Insecurity and its Implications for Asia: Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha \n1330h-1400h: Keynote Address by Hon’ble Defence Minister of India\, Shri A. K. Antony \n1400h-1500h: Lunch \n1500h-1645h: Session III\nTheme: Demography\, Migration & Urbanization\nChair: Prof. P R Chari\nPaper I: The Geopolitical Implications of Global Aging: Prof. Phillip Longman\nPaper II: Population Movements and Diaspora: Prof. Judith Brown \nPaper III: Rural Urban Divide and Urbanization: Implications for Security : Mr. Narendra Sisodia and Dr. Sarita Azad\nPaper IV: Pandemics and its consequences for the Future of Asia: Dr. Ali Karami \n1645h: Tea \n\nDay 2 (12 Feb 2010) \n0900-1045h: Session IV\nTheme\n: Transformational Technologies & their Impact on Society\nChair: Mr. K Santhanam\nPaper I: Technology Scenario in 2030: Dr. Virginia B. Watson \nPaper II: Cyber Security challenges for Asia in a 2030 time frame: Dr. Roland Heickerö\nPaper III: Future of Asian Space Powers: Wg Cdr Ajey Lele\nPaper IV: Renewable Technologies and their Impact on Society : Mr. David E. Fuente \n1045h-1115h: Tea \n1115h-1315h: Session V\nTheme\n: Asian Militaries and the Future of War\nChair: Air Comde. (Retd.) Jasjit Singh\nPaper I: War in 2030: Prof. Martin Van Crevald \nPaper II: Asian Armies: Dr. Yong-Sup Han\nPaper III: Asian Air Powers in 2030: Col. John P Geis\nPaper IV: Asian Navies: Dr. Vijay Sakhuja\nPaper V: Defence R & D in Asia: Achievements & Future Directions: Ms. Nabnita Krishnan \n1315h-1415h: Lunch \n1415h-1600h: Session VI\nTheme\n: WMD Weapons & International Security\nChair: Amb. Satish Chandra\nPaper I: Relevance of Nuclear Weapons in the 21st century: Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy\nPaper II: Asian Security\, Chinese and Indian Power\, and Nuclear Non-proliferation: Prof. Sumit Ganguly and Prof. David P. Fidler\nPaper III: Nuclear Terrorism: Mr. Charles P. Blair and Dr. Gary Ackerman \nPaper IV: CBRN Terrorism: Ms. Angela Woodword \n1600h-1630h: Tea \n1630h-1815h: Session VII\nTheme\n: Society\, Identity\, Religion and Governance \nChair: Prof. Zoya Hasan\nPaper I: Social Trends of the Future: Prof. T.K. Oomen\nPaper II: Identity Politics and Nationalism: Prof. Catarina Kinnvall\nPaper III: Religious Trends in Asia and Extremism: Dr. Bilveer Singh\nPaper IV: The Future of Terrorism: Dr. Walid Phares\n \n\nDay 3 (13 Feb 2010) \n0900h-1110h: Session VIII\nTheme\n: Geo-Politics in Asia: Country Perspectives\nChair: Mr. K. Subrahmanyam \nPaper I: The Geopolitics of Asia in 2030: An American Perspective: Prof. Aaron Friedberg\nPaper II: China and India: Geopolitical Center of Asia in 2030: Dr. Li Li \nPaper III: Asia 2030: A View from Japan: Dr. Makoto Iokibe\nPaper IV: Russia’s Asia policy in 2030: Dr. Stanislav Tkachenko \nPaper V: Asia 2030: A View from India: Prof. Amitabh Mattoo \n1110h-1130h: Tea \n1130h-1330h: Session IX\nTheme: Asia 2030: Alternative Scenarios\nChair: Mr. Pradeep Kumar\nPaper I: Role of Multi-lateral Institutions: Certain Scenarios: Amb. Sudhir T Devare\nPaper II: The Geo-politics of Asia in 2030 from China’s Perspective and Interest: Dr. Chien-peng Chung\nPaper III: Hegemony or Balance of Power? Regional Order and Conflict in a Transforming Asia: Prof. John Ikenberry\nPaper IV: Is Conflict Inevitable in Asia?: Dr. Namrata Goswami\nPaper V: Asian Futures 2030: Global Strategic Trends – Alternative Scenarios: Cdr. Steve Aiken  \n1330h-1345h: Closing Remarks \n1345h-1400h: Group Photograph \n1400h-1500h: Lunch \n\n\n\n\nRapporteurs Report\nSpeakers Profile
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/12th-asian-security-conference-asian-strategic-futures-2030-trends-scenarios-and-alternatives
CATEGORIES:Asian Security Conference,Previous ASC,CONFERENCES
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://idsa.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/no_photo-200x150-2.jpg
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR