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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20220113T053000
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CREATED:20231223T130214Z
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SUMMARY:MP-IDSA and JISS Third Annual Bilateral Dialogue
DESCRIPTION:Executive  Summary\nThe  US-China relationship is simply not just trade rivalry\, but it is a discourse  in itself. It is based on preserving respected status in global affairs\,  engaging in economic cooperation and cohesion\, military partnership and  adventurism. To challenge China’s growing influence in the South China Sea and  beyond\, the Biden administration has given a lot of importance to  multi-alliance politics. From Chinese view\, President Xi Jinping’s major  foreign policy is to build and prepare China to challenge US national security  interests in the longer run.  \n  The regional security situation in West  Asia remains volatile with Syria\, Yemen and Lebanon undergoing prolonged  crises. However\, West Asia has also registered some positive developments. The  Abraham Accords have provided a strong foundation to Israel-UAE and  Israel-Bahrain relations. Other significant developments include the formation  of the new Quad between India\, Israel\, UAE and the US\, Qatar-GCC  reconciliation\, Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation talks. Iran is providing UAVs  to its proxies such as Houthis in Yemen\, militias in Syria\, Hezbollah in  Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.   \n  Since the historic visit of Prime  Minister Narendra Modi in July 2017\, India-Israel ties have transformed with  political ballast adding robustness to the strength of the relationship. While  cooperation in other sectors like homeland security and agriculture is coming  on apace\, an important arena of future growth in India-Israel bilateral ties  could be cooperation in the science and technology and innovation sphere.  \nDetailed  Report \nThe third  Bilateral Dialogue between MP-IDSA and the JISS was held virtually on January  13\, 2022. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy\, Director General MP-IDSA\, and Prof.  Efraim Inbar\, President JISS\, led the Dialogue on both sides. The Dialogue  deliberated on the three central themes: US-China Rivalry\, Regional  Developments in West Asia and India-Israel Bilateral Relations. Scholars from  both sides frankly put forward their views on these issues and discussed the  possibilities of further cooperation between the two Institutes in the future.  \n  In his opening remarks Amb. Sujan Chinoy\, stated that the  US-China rivalry is affecting current global geopolitics. He said that the  global order is in a state of flux. Multilateralism is becoming weaker and  multi-alliance is increasingly becoming stronger. This shift is threatening  China as it is suspicious of anything that does not include them. Comparing  China policies of Joe Biden and Donald Trump\, Amb. Chinoy stated that though  Biden cites China as its major rival\, the modus operandi is different from that  of Trump. Unlike Trump\, Biden’s decision-making involves other partners\,  parties and people. As a result\, Biden’s efforts to strengthen Trans-Atlantic\,  Trans-Pacific partnerships and his three-prompt policy – cooperation\, extreme  competition and rivalry is viewed as more insidious by China.  \n  Amb. Chinoy stated that China  welcomes cooperation with US and seeks to expand its bilateral ties. China  asserts that it can live with competition provided it is positive in nature.  However\, it is determined to oppose the US\, if they regard China as its  adversary. In this context\, China views AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific\, which adds  to the existence of the Quad\, skeptically. Moreover\, AUKUS is a military pact\, and  unlike the Quad\, it deals with broader cooperation themes such as critical  supply chain\, vaccine development\, technology\, capacity building\, freedom of  navigation etc.  \n  Speaking on the concept of  decoupling with China\, Amb. Chinoy stated that it is hard to decouple in this  globalised world of interconnectedness. But\, in the semi-conductor space\, the  US appears to have succeeded in slowing China’s advance in artificial intelligence\,  telecommunication etc.\, so far. Amb. Chinoy giving an example of India\, stated  that when India faced harsh sanctions by the international community\, including  the US after India’s 1974 nuclear tests\, the effective result was India  progressed rapidly in terms of missile development programmes. So\,  the denial regime also creates greater determination and clarity of  thought and purpose. Amb. Chinoy further highlighted the growing misconceived  yet popular rhetoric of the US’ decline and China’s ascendance. China had a  spectacular rise\, but as compared to the US\, Beijing has a long way to go –  politically\, socially and economically.  \n  Lastly\, speaking on India-Israel  ties\, Amb. Chinoy stated that the relationship is being drastically transformed  today. India and Israel are the most natural of partners\, and India welcomes  Israel doing more in Asia\, including the Indo-Pacific. Highlighting the  existing cooperation\, he stated that India and Israel share strong ties in the  agriculture and defence sector. Health and technology can also be huge pillars  in India-Israel bilateral ties. The recent formation of the second Quad involving  India\, Israel\, US and the UAE marks another milestone in India-Israel bilateral  relations. However\, there is need to give a shape and balance to take this pact  forward. India has excellent relations with US and UAE\, so there is optimism about  the new Quad. These countries have the potential to collectively tackle many  common challenges emerging in the region. \nSession  1: The US-China Rivalry\nThe theme  of the first session was the US-China Rivalry and it was chaired by Amb.  Sujan R. Chinoy. The session had three panelists\, namely\, Prof. Eitan  Gilboa (JISS)\, Prof. Gabi Siboni (JISS) and Dr. Jagannath Panda (Research Fellow and Coordinator\, East Asia Centre\, MP-IDSA).   \n  In his presentation\, Prof. Eitan Gilboa evaluated Joe Biden’s  presidency during the first year of his tenure. He stated that Biden was more  focused on domestic issues like price rise\, economy\, the pandemic\, deep polarisation  etc. Biden’s announcement of US withdrawal from Afghanistan created a negative  impression. Besides\, the US is withdrawing from world issues such as China\,  Russia\, Climate Change\, Human rights etc. For\, Prof. Gilboa\, Biden is  attempting to restore good relations with the European Union. He intends to  work much closer with the UN and other agencies. Biden prefers multilateral  diplomacy as compared to unilateral diplomacy that Trump practised.  \n  Speaking on China\, US and Israel\,  Prof. Gilboa said that there is a continuity in American foreign policy from  Obama to the Biden era. Obama spoke about Asia focusing on China\, India and the  wider Asian continent. Obama could not do so as the US was occupied with the  rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. On the other hand\, Biden heavily criticised  China on several issues\, many of which China perceives as its internal matter  such as the issues of Hong Kong\, Taiwan and oppression against the Uyghur  Muslims. The US is also concerned about the building of military bases in the  artificial island in the South China Sea. \n  China wants to become a superpower  peacefully. But looking at today’s scenarios\, Chinese actions do not seem  peaceful rather they are aggressive. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is  a clever strategy in this context. China has a large number of resources and it  invests these resources in many parts of the world-building roads\, bridges\,  ports\, infrastructure etc. By acquiring Chinese loans other developing  countries in Asia\, Africa and Latin America give China some degree of control.  Prof Gilboa also explained US concern about China’s progress in artificial  intelligence\, big data\, cyber-security\, 5G telecommunication etc.  \n  BRI initiative is becoming a trend  in the Middle East as well. China’s economic investment and projects\,  particularly the construction of Haifa port in Israel has angered the US. The China-Iran  25 year strategic partnership with an estimated US$ 400 billion investment in  Iran is likely to provide a lifeline for Iran’s return in the region. Israel  has a major battle with Iran and this deal seems to change the equation in the  region and also for the US bloc.  \n  According to Prof. Gabi Siboni\, cyberspace must be understood and consumed in a  more globalised way. China is very heavily involved in developing its  cyberspace in terms of both offensive and defensive capabilities. China uses  offensive capabilities in an aggressive way towards anyone who is a potential  challenge. He said that China that is threatening US critical infrastructure  and assets. Not only the US\, even the EU issued few alerts to its member states  on Chinese cyber activity. While the West cannot control every criminal or  cybercrime that is taking place\, the use of criminal proceedings against  the criminal groups supported by the states like Russia and China for political  purposes can be limited. He said that it is a common practice for China to be  involved with many malicious groups directly or indirectly to act outside of  China. Beijing has decided to replace the Western economy and technology\, and  it is using every means to achieve it. China is also seeking to expand its  industry and company espionage.  Nevertheless\, America\, the EU and Canada  are trying their best to contain China\, its industry and private companies are  committed to investing a lot of money in cybersecurity and technology. He also  stated that Israel also faces similar threats in the region and it is working  towards enhancing its cyber potential even further.  \n  Dr. Jagannath Panda stated that US-China relations is  simply not just rivalry\, but it is deeper and bigger than that. It is a  discourse in itself that is significantly setting international relations in  the arena of political\, military\, economic and ideological components. Perhaps\,  the rivalry is at the elementary stage. There is a strategic competition  between them\, though not an outright confrontation. From a holistic point of view\,  US-China rivalry is based on preserving respected status in global affairs\,  engaging in influential cooperation such as economic cooperation and cohesion\,  military partnership and adventurism.  \n  He said that the US-China rivalry is  based on trade\, economic\, international financing policy\, technology and clash  of leadership in global governance. China is making more grounds and the US is  pushing for alignment and alliance politics which is widening the rift between  the democratic and authoritarian principles. He said that from the US point of  view\, China’s rise has arrived as a threat to US dominance in global affairs.  Since Trump’s presidency\, the US officials\, strategic community and the policy makers  have continuously made China a long term strategic threat. Not the US alone\,  but there are growing anti-China narratives across the globe. President Biden’s  similar anti-China path gives a lot of importance to multi-alliance politics.  The US focus on Quad\, Quad plus\, AUKUS\, B3W initiatives etc. is based on  anti-China narratives to pose a challenge to BRI and try to create a global  narrative in promoting resilient and quality infrastructure. \n  From a Chinese perspective\,  President Xi Jinping’s major foreign policy is to build and prepare China to  challenge US national security interests in the longer run. Xi’s gradual  consolidation of political power has put the communist party in the global  spotlight. A central feature of power consolidation is the transformation of  the Chinese government’s decision-making process. A decade back it was a  collective practice\, but today\, China’s decision-making process has become more  authoritarian and singular which is dictated and directed by Xi Jinping.  \n  He concluded by saying that from a  broader perspective\, US-China rivalry is not in the interest of the region.  Their rivalry is seriously undermining the multilateral institutions and global  governance architectures. It is also significantly affecting peace and  stability in the international arena. India would like to escape this bipolar  mode of power politics. However\, it does not have much choice apart from  aligning with the US and other democratic countries in the world.  \nSession 2: Regional Developments and Bilateral relations\nThe second  session of the dialogue focused on the important developments taking place in  the region and India-Israel bilateral relations; and was chaired by Prof. Efraim Inbar. Speakers in this  session were Dr. P K Pradhan (Associate Fellow  and Coordinator\, West Asia Centre\, MP-IDSA)\, Dr. S Samuel C Rajiv (Associate Fellow\, MP-IDSA) and Prof. Uzi Rubin (JISS).  \n  Dr. Pradhan said that  the Abraham Accords have provided a strong foundation to Israel-UAE and  Israel-Bahrain relations\, which is reflected in the rapid improvement in the  ties between these countries. According to him this has been an extraordinary  step in a volatile region like West Asia. These efforts have also been welcomed  by India which supports peace and stability in the region and favours  cooperation among the regional countries in this regard. The agreement between  India\, Israel\, UAE and the US known as the new Quad is another significant  step. From India’s point of view this development is important since  India is serious about engaging with these countries\, reflected in its  high-level official meeting with them held in November 2021. In his view\,  the new Quad countries must make serious efforts to achieving something  meaningful in future.  \n  With regard to  the Gulf region\, he said that the unity in GCC has been restored during the Al  Ula summit. However\, the Iranian issue still continues to trouble them. During  the GCC summit held in December 2021\, they discussed Iran’s destabilising  activities in the region by its proxies. They deliberated on the Iranian nuclear  issue and stated that GCC countries’ relations with Iran will be determined by  the nuclear talks going on in Vienna. Dr. Pradhan highlighted that revival of  talks on the Iranian nuclear deal is also a crucial development and stated that  the Iranian insistence on removal of sanctions and American pressure on Iran to  abide by JCPOA has led to the current stalemate.  \n  The talks  between Iran and Saudi Arabia with the mediation by Iraq’s Prime Minister\,  Mustafa Al Kadhimi\, is another major development and it has the potential to  change the geopolitics of the region. Though the talks are in the early stage\,  the reconciliatory approach shown by both the parties will help in  de-escalating tension within the region in the short and long term. With regard  to Yemen\, Dr. Pradhan stated that with the increasing power of Houthis\, the  threat to international shipping lines particularly in the Red Sea and Strait  of Bab El Mandab has become a cause of concern. The condition in Yemen has  provided a conducive environment for the terror groups as the Al Qaeda in the  Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has consolidated its position in the southern parts  and the ISIS has also been trying to gain a foothold in the country. He  concluded by saying that despite some constructive efforts by the countries to  establish peace and stability\, the situation in the region remains fragile.  \n  Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv in his  presentation on India-Israel relations drew attention to the transformation of  ties in the past few years\, with political ballast adding robustness to the  strength of the relationship. This has specifically been so after the historic  visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in July 2017. In 2021\, both the countries  shared high level visits including that of Air Chief Marshal\, RKS Bhadauria  (August 2021)\, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar\, Defence Secretary  Ajay Kumar (October 2021) and Army Chief General Mukund Naravane (November 2021). This has translated into greater  synergies between the two countries. According to Dr. Rajiv\, political  interactions have continued and defence interactions have strengthened.   During the 15th JWG on defence cooperation in October 2021 in Tel  Aviv\, both sides agreed to set up a Sub Working Group (SWG) on Defence Industry  Cooperation.  \n  He also  highlighted the significant policy decisions taken by the Ministry of Defence  (MoD) to increase defence indigenisation and noted that\, going forward\, India  is aiming to reduce the volume of defence imports as well as increase its  defence exports. As per SIPRI Trend Indicator Values (TIV)\, India imported US$ 36  billion during 2010-2020\, 8 percent of which was from Israel\, while the  country’s defence exports in 2020 stood at over US$ 1 billion. India aims to  reach a target of US$ 5 billion of defence exports in the next five years. In  order to add a fillip to domestic defence production\, two defence industrial  corridors are being set up and exclusive budgets have been earmarked for  domestic capital expenditure. Along with this\, a defence indigenisation portal  (Srijan Portal) has been started. Changes in the FDI policy\, among others\, is  an important opportunity for the Israeli industry to more fully participate in  fulfilling the requirements of the Indian armed forces.  \n  While  cooperation in other sectors like homeland security and agriculture is coming  on apace\, Dr. Rajiv noted that an important arena of future growth in bilateral  ties could occur from cooperation in the science and technology and innovation  sphere. While Israel is acknowledged as a world leader in innovation\, the  Indian innovation ecosystem is also growing by leaps and bounds. During 2021  itself\, over 40 Indian Start-Ups reached the unicorn status (valuation of US$ 1  billion). He concluded by saying that India and Israel can explore bilateral\,  trilateral (with the UAE) and quadrilateral (with the US and UAE) projects in  this sphere.  \n  Prof. Uzi Rubinstated that until recently it was  believed that the Missile is the decisive strategic disrupter in the region and  the UAVs have been used as supportive weapons. But this understanding has  changed over time with UAVs being considered at par with strategic disruptors  such as missiles. He gave a broader classification of UAVs wherein\, he divided  it in three categories\, namely reconnaissance UAVs used for intelligence  gathering (Hermes 900)\, Combat UAVs (Reaper) and Suicide (Kamikaze) UAVs. He  also elaborated on how these different kinds of UAVs were previously used in  the region as secondary options in comparison to missiles by Turkey and other  countries. He further said that Iran providing UAVs to its proxies in the  region such as Houthis in Yemen\, militias in Syria\, Hezbollah in Lebanon and  Hamas in the Gaza Strip\, has challenged the regional security situation. In the  past few months\, Iran has threatened the international maritime routes through  UAV strikes and has targeted Israeli ships in the Gulf multiple  times.    \n  He elaborated on  the challenges in combating UAVs. Firstly\, due to their small size they are  hard to detect by radar. Also\, suicide UAVs fly close to the ground and ‘pop  up’ only when close to the target. Secondly\, they are highly stealthy due to  the composite materials used in making them. Thirdly\, the powering of UAVs by  small piston engines imparts them a negligible heat signature. Lastly\, they can  be programmed to follow a roundabout trajectory and attack unexpectedly. \n  He shared the  Saudi experience of dealing with the UAV threat and said that Saudi Arabia is  targeted by UAVs from Yemen. It receives 40-50 UAV strikes per month and is  combating them through ground-based air defence (Patriot Missile) and F-15s  launched air to air missiles. Thereafter\, he shared Russian experiences in  dealing with UAV threats. The two permanent Russian bases (Hmeimim Air Base and  Tartus Naval Base) in Syria have regularly been targeted by the rebels through  UAVs. To deal with these strikes\, Russia has re-tuned its Radars. It has  deployed “soft” defence belt of GPS and Glonass jammers along with EW  Radio communication jammer system. It has also deployed SA 22 Panzir systems to  provide “hard” defence.  \n  In his view\, to  deal with the danger of UAV threats\, one needs to deploy a 360 degree early  warning fence against very low flying targets. There is also a need to  integrate soft and hard defence systems. To deal with UAV threats Israel has  unveiled Sky Dew Early warning system and Scorpius advance ECM. He concluded  his presentation by saying that “any future military action in the region  will be a missile and UAV war”.  \n  In the Closing session\, Maj. Gen. Dr. Bipin Bakshi\,  Deputy Director General MP-IDSA\, apprised the  participants about the various initiatives which include a start-up challenge  where local industries are being roped in\, especially in the last five years\,  to produce flight as well as land based robotic devices capable of carrying  cameras and diffuse bombs. These industries are also being provided seed  funding. He emphasised that India and Israel have been natural allies and enjoy  mutual friendship with the US\, Bahrain and UAE. The two countries have shared  concerns of terrorism and issues of regional security. He mentioned that the US  is making attempts to counter China and stressing on the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy  since a long time\, in the light of China posing a hybrid threat using criminal  groups as a front by the government. He drew attention to the collaboration  between India and Israel in this complex environment. Furthermore\, he  highlighted that no regional security construct could be envisioned without  contemplating on the US and China strategic competition particularly in the  South and West Asian region.  \nCol.  Dr. Eran Lerman summed up by pointing out three major developments.  Firstly\, the changes in Afghanistan and implications for the US\, that shall  affect the Middle East and the region surrounding India. Secondly\, the idea of western  Quad to complement the eastern Quad is another crucial geopolitical development.  Dr. Lerman stated this will bring together  India\, the US\, Israel and the UAE\, covering the spectrum of religious identity  within the scope of like-mindedness. Thirdly\, he mentioned that Iran is an  ultimate challenge for Israel in maintaining stability in the region.
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/mp-idsa-and-jiss-third-annual-bilateral-dialogue
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