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DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140219T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140221T053000
DTSTAMP:20261109T064436
CREATED:20231223T125534Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250309T041528Z
UID:62776-1392787800-1392960600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:16th Asian Security Conference: Emerging Strategic Trends in Asia and India’s Response
DESCRIPTION:Concept Note\n\n\nThere is little doubt that Asia –  stretching from the Eurasian landmass to the maritime reaches of Australia and  the South Pacific – is experiencing a major shift in the global balance of  power. Expressions like the ‘Indo-Pacific’ and ‘Asia-Pacific’\, contested they  maybe\, capture Asia’s expanse and dynamism. But for one brief and dramatic  financial crisis in 1997\, growth rates in Asia have been averaging well above  the rest of the world. The rise of China along with the increasing global  footprint of Russia and India in G20 and the ASEAN states soaring economies  have made Asia the powerhouse and centre of gravity. Yet\, Asia struggles with  numerous conflicts in spite of its ‘alphabet soup’ of regional organisations  and security structures. \n      Changes are happening fast in Asia  and changing not only the geo-political landscape but also the mindset of the  people who are pushing for political reforms and accountability. The global  power shifts being witnessed is also potentially prising up Asia to  confrontation as well as convergence as states compete. China is an important  piece of the puzzle and its rise is a defining line of the changing landscape.  How will China define its national interest in the future? Will it pursue an  assertive\, even aggressive policy in Asia to back up its territorial claims? Or  will China\, assured of its great power status practice moderation and  restraint? Importantly\, how should India and other key states in Asia respond  to China’s continuous rise and influence – should the response be as a  strategic competitor with a policy of confrontation or a containment approach  through active cooperation?  \n      From a strategic grand view\, the balance  of power is uncertain in Asia. A sizeable US military presence continues and  the Obama administration´s policy involves strengthening US military alliance  and strategic partnerships and simultaneously repositioning forces. China would  be far from assured that the ‘rebalancing’ is not directed towards it thus  opening up the region to power play and rivalry in the East China Sea and South  China Sea. A resultant increase in military expenditure and modernisation and a  thrust towards new technologies will spur many countries. \n      The numerous stress-lines and  fault-lines expose Asia to many potential flash-points. Unresolved territorial  issues stand between India and China\, Vietnam and China\, China and Russia\,  Russia and Japan. North Korea and Taiwan may trigger-off unmanageable crises.  West Asia continues to be restive threatening to tear apart the socio-political  fabric. Of the four Asian nuclear powers\, North Korea and Pakistan are highly  suspect nuclear proliferators involved in covert supply of missile technology.  The China-Japan rivalry reveals dangerous chauvinism. At the same time\, the two  largest populated countries – China and India – referred to as ‘planetary  powers’ surging need for energy and raw materials for its 2.5 billion people  creates new areas of resource friction. Resource scarcity will not only be  related to physical shortage but more possibly from failure of governance.  \n      Asia’s  economies are increasingly vital to each other and to the world with both the  US and Europe continuing to post low GDP growth. The economic shift is shaping two different approaches to trade liberalization in Asia. One  paved by the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and  the other by the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and it has to be seen  how these approaches will determine the economic choices in the coming years. While\,  at one level\, certain investment and trade barriers will continue to hinder business  in Asia\, at another\, poverty eradication will have to remain an essence of  economic growth for Asian countries. The economies in Asia have to continuously  grow fast along with being sustainable and inclusive. Other challenges that  equally impact the economy are an increased number of natural disasters that  interrupt the supply chain\, security concerns emanating from terrorism and  cyber security\, where hacking\, espionage and lack of privacy fuel concerns for  companies as well as politicians and governments.  \n      For India\, the emerging geopolitical  and geo-economic trends raise questions as to how it will lock into the new  continental power matrix and how it will respond and reappraise to the changes.  \n      Asia is on the threshold of change —  the known and unknown; opportunities and uncertainties abound. Such times also  offer an excellent chance to concentrate on the dynamics of change\, to search  for new ways of understanding\, and to prepare for a future that is certainly  set to surprise.  \n      Against this  backdrop\, the 16th annual Asian Security Conference (ASC) to be held at the  Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses\, New Delhi\, in February 2014 will  deliberate the emerging strategic trends in Asia and unravel the challenges and opportunities. \nDay One\n      Session1: Asia’s Geopolitical Future\n      Central to the future of stability in Asia is how the  rise of China  is impacting the balance of power. China is now strong enough to challenge US’  leadership in Asia. But it is not clear as to what kind of new order would  emerge. One possibility is a contested order framed by US and China strategic  rivalry. The Chinese dominance might push other Asian powers into alliance with  US making the landscape polarized. On the other hand\, the US stays engaged in  Asia\, without being assertive and allowing for a ‘concert of powers’ as a  counter weight to China’s power in the Indo-Pacific. Regional  institutions are important prescription for bolstering Asia’s stability but  raises doubts on whether such multilateral structures have the capability to  absorb the shocks and resolve conflicts. This session will explore  Asia’s geopolitical future\, the various scenarios that might emerge and the  conditions for stability. \n      Session 2: Military Trends in Asia \n      While Asia has seen a growth of regional institutions yet\, Asian  countries’ military expenditures tell a tale of escalating security competition  and the recent claims in South China Sea  suggest that regional mechanisms don’t necessarily lower the temperature.  China’s military budget accounts for nearly half of all the military spending  in the region. Japan\, on the other hand\, has increased its defence spending\,  partly as a reality check to China and partly as a response to US defence cuts.  Many of the US allies in Asia under US protection will have to accept more  risks and boost their military capabilities. How will the Asian countries  military modernisation impact the region? What are the perceived external  threats and how is it impacting the military doctrines? What implications does  the military expenditure have on future force structure and strategic  posturing? \n        Session 3: Economic Global Shift  towards Asia\n        The world’s economic centre of gravity has shifted to  Asia with the rapid economic development seen in  China\, India and other Asian countries along with the  economic problems experienced in Europe and the US. Urbanization will be a  key trend of the rapidly growing economies in  Asia. The global economic shift is bringing forth opportunities and challenges.  What are the responses of key economic and political  institutions in Asia\, particularly in India and China? Should India follow  China´s example and turn its attention towards boosting domestic consumption  rather than foreign trade? Questions about how the old developed economies (the  West) will react and whether Asia’s current economic model is sustainable will  equally emerge. Will there be a slowing with major adjustments or a collapse?  What levels of impact will the changing demography particularly the growing  middle class and the aging population have on the economy? This session will  examine how the changes will shape the economic and business contours in Asia? \n        Day  2\n      Session 4: Resource Stress in Asia\n        One of Asia’s  major concerns centres on resource security. Food\, energy\, water and climate  are intricately linked and further impacted by price\, availability and quality.  Population growth\, urbanization\, and industrialization are exacerbating  resource-related stresses. Asia includes about 56 per cent of world’s  population and depends on 31 per cent of arable land and by 2030 the continent  will have 5 billion people. Understanding the resource dynamics is useful to the political economy  particularly as competition for natural  resources among Asian nations intensifies. Will it bring the continent to a  dangerous crossroads of dependence\, geopolitical tension and environmental  degradation? What trade-offs and at what appropriate scale (regional\,  national\, sub-national) will be required to ease resource pressure? Is the  framing of resource policies particularly complementary to rights-based  development approaches?  \n      Session 5: Ocean Governance in the  Indo-Pacific\n        With the economic power shift to Asia\,  the Indo-Pacific region is fast becoming the centre of trade\, investment and  cooperation. The region contains close to half the world’s population and  provides several of the world’s most important choke-points for global commerce  including the Strait of Malacca. Clearly the region is recognised for its  economic dynamism and geo-strategic importance. Many inter-state disputes are  maritime in nature\, both due to the many unsettled maritime boundaries as a  consequence of the enactment of UNCLOS\, and the tendency towards unrestrained  exploitation of maritime resources with little regard for territorial  jurisdictions. A legal framework and multilateral agreements are critical in managing  communal global resources such as the high seas but fear of regional hegemony is likely to hinder support for the  establishment of ocean governance\, particularly among the weaker countries. The  session will discuss the legal obligations\, impact of institutional  arrangements and strengthening governance over maritime resources.   \n      Session 6: Assessing Risks:  Cyber and Critical Infrastructure\n        In  today’s interconnected world\, states share risks and vulnerabilities. Some of  the biggest security challenges will come from the cyber space. Singapore and  Indonesia have already taken steps towards setting up cyber commands. As  cyber-attacks and hacktivism increase\, challenges to information sharing will  mount. Against this backdrop\, how then will governments and policing bodies  cooperate on law enforcement and sharing information? Policies  towards preventions\, precautions and preparedness plans will be examined. The  session will also explore critical infrastructure protection and  government coordination highlighting in particular the increased reliance upon  technology systems in public and private infrastructure and hence vulnerability  to new forms of cyberterrorism and attacks. The lens will also shift to civil-military  cooperation and how ‘calling out the troops’ to combat emergencies occurs in  countries.  \nDay  3\n      Session 7: India’s ResponsePanel Discussion\n      The big question is how India is responding to the strategic  changes in Asia? China sits atop the power pyramid with its physical size\,  military capability and economic clout that combines to assert regional  dominance. Powers like India would not like to easily cede the hegemonic space  to China but\, at the same time\, would realise that its power is pervasive and  difficult to counter balance. The arrangement possibly would be for India to  trade and invest intensely with China while seeking a security alliance with  the US. Will India follow this path? How is India as an emerging power looked  at in the region? Can India be a guarantor/balancer or will it be seen as an  opponent? A careful reappraisal of Asia’s emerging strategic dynamics\, a  hard-headed assessment of what India’s interests are and a considered approach  to fulfilling these interests should deeply engage academia and policy makers.  The session will explore the pillars on which India can build a more  comprehensive\, forward-looking and proactive Asia policy.  \n\n\n\n\nProgramme Schedule\n\n\n\n\n\nDay 1: February 19\n\n\n\n10.00-10.35\nInaugural Session\n\n\n10.00-10.05\nWelcome Address by DG\, IDSA\n\n\n\n\n\n\n10.05-10.30\nAddress by the Hon’ble Governor of West Bengal\n\n\n10.30-10.35\nVote of Thanks\n\n\n \n \n\n\n10.35-11.00\nTea\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n11.00-13.00\nSession 1: Asia’s    geopolitical future\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \nChairperson: Arvind Gupta \nYan Xuetong : The bipolarization in East Asia\nSujit Dutta: Asia’s power transition: uncertain future of stability and peace\nTakenori Horimoto: How is power transition in Asia taking place?\nMichael Wesley: Restless giants: Asia’s new geopolitics\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n13.00-14.00\nLunch\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n14.00-16.00\nSession 2: Military trends    in Asia\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \nChairperson: Satish Nambiar \nFumio Ota: Chinese military expansion and other Asian states’ reaction\nAndrew Scobell: What is driving Asian aircraft carrier programs? The case of China\nNguyen Hung Son: Vietnam naval modernisation: causes and trends\nPrakash Menon: India’s military – modernising not militarising\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n16.00-16.15\nTea\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n16.15-16:45\nSpecial Address by Hon’ble Defence Minister\n\n\n \n \n\n\n16.45-18.30\nSession 3: Economic global    shift to Asia\n\n\n \nChairperson: US Bhatia \nHu Shisheng: Economic global shift toward Asia: realities and challenges\nRajat Kathuria: China and India: the benefits of co-opetition\nKristy Hsu: Opportunities and challenges in China and India: Taiwanese investors’ perspectives \n\n\n\n \n\n\n\nDay 2: February 20\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n10.00-10.30\nTea\n\n\n \n \n\n\n10.30-13.00\nSession 4 Resource Stress    in Asia\n\n\n \nChairperson: Uttam Sinha  \nBobby A. Tamaela Wattimena: Energy security challenges under limited resource pressure in Asia region\nMukul Sanwal: Why water politics matters\nHuang Ying: Urbanisation and water security in China\nYashika Singh: India’s resource economy: possible choices and probable outcomes\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n13.00-14.00\nLunch\n\n\n \n \n\n\n14.00-16.00\nSession 5: Ocean Governance    in Indo-Pacific\n\n\n \nChairperson: Sudhir Vyas \nKV Bhagirath: The geo-strategic importance of the Indian Ocean\nYou Ji: Meeting the challenge of a la carte maritime disorder in the Indo-Pacific region\nLan-Anh T Nguyen: The quest for effective ocean management in the South China Sea\nAnup Singh: Time to discipline the sea lawyers\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n16.00-16.15\nTea\n\n\n \n \n\n\n16.15-18.00\nSession 6: Assessing Risks:    Cyber and Critical Infrastructure\n\n\n \nChairperson: Nehchal Sandhu \nGulshan Rai: Cyber security threat and states’ initiatives for securing cyber space\nTimothy Legrand & Saskia Hufnagel: Risk and resilience: international approaches to vulnerable infrastructure protection\nSimon Bronitt & Ashutosh Misra: Use of lethal force and military aid to civil power Australia and India: sharing lessons in counter-terrorism\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\nDay 3: February 21 \n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n10.00-10.45\nSpecial Address by the National Security Advisor (NSA)\n\n\n \n \n\n\n10.45-11.00\nTea\n\n\n \n \n\n\n11.00-13.00\nSession 7: India’s Response: A Panel Discussion \nPatrick Suckling \nSD Muni\nYan Xuetong        \nP Stobdan \nRajiv Nayan\nSrikanth Kondapalli        \nTakenori Horimoto        \nNguyen Hung Son\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n13.00-14.00\nLunch\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConference Booklet\nRapporteurs Report
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/16th-asian-security-conference-emerging-strategic-trends-in-asia-and-indias-response
CATEGORIES:Asian Security Conference,Previous ASC,CONFERENCES
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140221T053000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20140221T053000
DTSTAMP:20261109T064436
CREATED:20231223T124305Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250311T075527Z
UID:62642-1392960600-1392960600@idsa.in
SUMMARY:Speaking Notes at the 16th Asian Security Conference on "Emerging Strategic Trends in Asia and India’s Response"
DESCRIPTION:Watch Video\nDr. Arvind Gupta\, Director\, IDSA\,\nLadies and Gentlemen. \nThank you for asking me to speak to your conference. The IDSA Asian Security Con-ference has become an annual event that we look forward to as an occasion to review Asian issues and to learn from each other. As usual you have an impressive list of participants and a full and topical agenda. \nI thought I would briefly describe a few salient aspects of the present situation in the Asia-Pacific and what we might do about it. \nThe Present Situation in the Asia-Pacific\nFrom an Indian point of view\, located as we are at the intersection of West Asia and what is now called the Asia-Pacific\, until recently Asia appeared to be heading in dif-ferent directions\, depending on whether one looked East or West. But today\, in 2014\, whichever way one looks\, the factors of uncertainty have increased manifold\, as has a sense of insecurity. \nThe reasons why this is so to our west are well known. The turmoil in West Asia has been well analysed\, perhaps over-analysed; we know of the multiple transitions in Af-ghanistan this year\, of the situation in Syria\, Iraq\, Libya\, and so on and so forth. \nBut it is less obvious why there should be increased instability to our east in the Asia-Pacific\, why East Asia is much less harmonious than it was until a few years ago. \nOne reason could be that the Asia-Pacific is a crowded geopolitical space\, with the active involvement in its affairs of several established and of rising or re-emerging powers\, some external and some intrinsic to the region. But it has been so since the beginning of the nineteenth century. So what has changed to increase insecurity and uncertainty? I can think of four immediate reasons: \n\nFor one\, it is not just that the Asia-Pacific is getting even more crowded as China and several other powers re-emerge on the geopolitical stage. It is the simultane-ous emergence of several powers that has built pressure for a new equilibrium and balance. That new equilibrium has not emerged because the pace of change in the balance of power is so rapid.\nSecondly\, rapid economic growth in the last few decades has given several states in the region the means to militarily strengthen themselves. East Asia has seen the most rapid accumulation of economic power in world history. It is now seeing the same in terms of military power. The Asia-Pacific as a whole is witnessing the greatest peacetime arms buildup in its history\, possibly in world history.\nTechnology and politics have eliminated distance and separation between powers. We now speak of the Asia-Pacific as a geopolitical unit\, and not of East Asia\, South East Asia and South Asia separately. What happens in the South China Sea or the East China Sea concerns and affects the entire region\, if not the world. ICT and weapons technologies have eliminated the separations that existed between powers in the region.\nWe take for granted the removal of ideological restraints on the use of force or the threat of its use\, even though it is a recent phenomenon. The absence of ideology has resulted in renewed internal debates and political arguments in several major Asia-Pacific countries. (You see this in China and Japan. India is no exception.) At the risk of oversimplifying\, the debate is between liberal internationalists/reformers on the one hand\, and ultra-nationalists/conservatives on the other. The reformers seek more international cooperation and are committed to international values and solutions. The conservatives seek to recover lost territory and status\, (imagined or real)\, and seek a position of regional dominance\, or hegemony\, or in some cases as a superpower. The ultra-nationalists use a narrative of humiliation\, pride\, and re-sentment against limitations of capacity and reality to achieve their purposes. An essential part of this narrative is a threat inflation industry. And in many countries it is the conservatives with their emotional appeal who are the loudest in public dis-course\, not the cool reason and compromise of the reformers.\n\nEach of these phenomena individually might not have been a cause for worry. Even taken together they could have been manageable. But they come at a time of doubt about the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific and just when a new balance of power is emerging. For forty years\, since the US opening to China and the Vietnam War\, the Asia-Pacific has known relative stability under a security order in which the US provided security guarantees for the status quo. Today the US itself is rebalanc-ing back to the region and there is heightened uncertainty in the region. \nWhat should we do?\nContinued uncertainty or confrontation in the Asia-Pacific is clearly in no one’s inter-est as it will affect major powers’ attempts to restructure their economies and revive growth. Conflict would roll back the gains to each of our countries of forty years of stability and peace. \nWhat is the answer?\nClearly we need to act upon repeated statements by all the countries in the region and build an open\, inclusive security architecture in the region\, adding content to the concept and implementing it as soon as possible. We are only at the inception of this process with the ARF\, the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Plus dialogue\, and the East Asia Summit. \nIt will\, of course\, be a security architecture with Asian characteristics\, the political-military equivalent of the open interlinked economic order that has so benefitted the region\, taking into account the primarily maritime nature of many regional security issues and disputes amenable to collective solutions. \nIn building the order we should concentrate on the security essentials that made the region’s phenomenal economic growth possible. The commons\, on the high seas\, in air space\, and in cyber space should be safe and open to all lawful civilian users. That is why maritime security and freedom of navigation is so important and should be one of the first orders of business. \nOpenness about doctrines and defence\, and increased military contacts\, would also take some of the edge off uncertainty although confidence building can only hold the ring until the hard work of solving disputes and agreeing a rule based legal order is done. \nThank you for the patient hearing. I do hope that your deliberations will result in more clarity on strategic trends in Asia and on the security architecture and topics that we should work on to ensure the peace and security that is so essential to Asia’s com-mon future. \nWatch Video
URL:https://idsa.in/idsa-event/speaking-notes-at-the-16th-asian-security-conference-on-emerging-strategic-trends-in-asia-and-indias-response
CATEGORIES:KEY SPEECHES,Asian Security Conference,ASC Key Speeches
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