Dr. Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “China’s Security Activism and Political Influence Operations in Africa” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 2 December 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Abhishek K. Darbey, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director- General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, scholars and researchers engaged in a comprehensive discussion on China’s evolving security strategies and tools to exert its political influence on the African continent.

Executive Summary

China has strategically expanded its influence in Africa through dual pathways: security activism and political influence operations. Utilising tools like the Global Security Initiative (GSI), military bases, conflict mediation strategies, and professional military program (PMEs), China has solidified its presence. These activities are driven by Beijing’s long-term strategic interests, including economic security, access to Africa’s critical minerals, and shaping geopolitical narratives that are favourable to the Chinese model of governance.

Detailed Report

The session commenced with remarks by Dr. Abhishek K. Darbey, who emphasised the significance of understanding China’s growing influence in Africa. He highlighted two primary aspects of China’s engagement: military diplomacy in the form of military exchanges, exercises and high-level defence visits and political influence achieved through party-to-party diplomacy.

Dr. Mishra began his presentation by remarking that China’s engagement in Africa is a remarkable exercise in narrative framing. He then outlined China’s current operational presence in Africa and noted the deployment of approximately 4,100 military personnel across the continent. Of these, 2,000 troops are stationed at China’s military base in Djibouti, 1,400 participate in United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping Operations, and 700 sailors operate on a rotational basis as part of its anti-piracy missions in the Horn of Africa region. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) base in Djibouti hosts a PLAN Marine Corps Special Operations Forces (PLANMC-SOF) unit, emphasising China’s military preparedness in Africa.

Dr. Mishra elaborated on the Global Security Initiative (GSI), announced in April 2022, which offers China’s security architecture in the Global South as a counter to the western-led security apparatus. The GSI promotes principles such as non-interference and conflict resolution through consultation and mediation, distinguishing it from Western-led frameworks. Under the GSI and as announced at the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2024 event, China offered to train 6000 African military personnel, 1000 police officers and assist African countries in their efforts to clear mines across the continent. These initiatives underscore Beijing’s commitment and growing appetite for security partnerships with African nations.

A significant focus of the discussion was China’s military base in Djibouti. Initially conceived as a resupply facility, the base has evolved into a comprehensive logistics and training hub, supporting the PLA-N’s “far-seas” operations. Dr. Mishra also analysed the potential establishment of a Chinese naval base in Equatorial Guinea, highlighting the region’s strategic importance due to its maritime traffic, oil production, and reliance on Chinese-built infrastructure. He further identified other potential locations for Chinese military logistics facilities, including the tiny Indian Ocean island-nation of Comoros.

Dr. Mishra examined China’s approach to conflict mediation which he described as being strategically ambiguous. Beijing applies a non-interference model with “Chinese characteristics,” combining persuasion, dialogue promotion, and mediation. Examples include the Horn of Africa Peace, Development, and Good Governance Conference held in Ethiopia in 2022. While China’s efforts to mediate regional tensions reflect its growing diplomatic clout, Dr. Mishra noted that these initiatives are carefully tailored to align with Chinese strategic interests.

The discussion then shifted to the role of Chinese Private Security Companies (PSCs) in Africa. These companies are providing armed escort services and training to safeguard Chinese investments and workers, operating under a 2009 legal framework. Dr. Mishra highlighted notable PSCs, including Huawei and Frontier Services Group (FSG), which focus on economic security rather than military operations which is the modus operandi of Russia’s Wagner Group, now known as Africa Corps. However, the potential for these Chinese PSCs to facilitate the weaponisation of critical resources poses geopolitical challenges, particularly for India. Dr. Mishra noted that the growing influence of Chinese PSC’s in Africa could in the future block India’s access to resources and projects in Africa.

The second half of the presentation explored China’s political influence operations. Dr. Mishra traced the historical roots of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) engagement in Africa, transitioning from supporting left-leaning liberation movements to fostering strategic ties with political elites and ruling parties. Today, the CCP employs tools such as study tours, governance seminars, and training programs to promote China’s development model. These initiatives aim to build relationships with African elites, secure access to resources, and foster pro-China narratives. Chinese arms sales to African nations, which rose significantly from US$103 million in 2022 to US$306 million in 2023, further bolster these political efforts.

Dr. Mishra evaluated the effectiveness of these influence campaigns, noting that while the CCP has successfully cultivated alliances with African elites, this success is primarily driven by financial incentives rather than any form of ideological alignment. He also highlighted the risks associated with China’s strategy, including the debt dependency of African nations and the potential for long-term geopolitical repercussions.

Q&A Session

The presentation was followed by a lively Q&A session. Ambassador Chinoy pointed out China’s growing footprint in Africa, particularly with the establishment of its first overseas military base in Djibouti, which underscores Beijing’s strategic ambitions in the region. He stressed the importance of India adopting a cooperative approach focused on mutual respect and shared development goals to counter external influence and strengthen its strategic presence in the region.

Participants delved into various aspects of China’s engagement in Africa, including the implications of expanding military bases, the role of PSCs in protecting Chinese economic interests, and the sustainability of China’s political influence operations. Dr. Mishra provided comprehensive answers, emphasising the multifaceted nature of China-Africa relations and the evolving dynamics of Beijing’s strategic engagement on the continent.

This report was prepared by Mr. Varun Talan, Intern, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.