Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Recent Developments in West Asia: Geopolitical Shifts and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 16 December 2024. The meeting was moderated by Dr. P K Pradhan, Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. Scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

West Asia has been continually embroiled in escalating conflict and tensions. Key discussions included the Hezbollah-Israel war, Israel’s multi-domain military advancements under the ‘momentum plan’, the rebel offensive in Syria and Iran’s recalibration and diplomatic strategy in the context of geopolitical setbacks in the Levant.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Pradhan spoke about the chaos and tensions in Syria. He highlighted the surprise return of the Arab Spring moment witnessed in the fall of the Bashar Al Assad Government in Syria. He spoke about the already ongoing conflict between Israel, Gaza, Iran and its proxies, with the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah being among the recent developments.

Dr. Saraswat began her presentation with the cataclysmic events taking place in Syria and the rebel offensive that forced Assad to leave the country. She traced the Israel-Hezbollah War wherein on 8 October, Hezbollah opened a ‘support front.’ She stated that Hezbollah was not seeking to get into a full-blown war and that it hoped that the deterrence placed in the 2006 war would keep the hostilities below the threshold of a full-fledged war. Dr. Saraswat outlined that Iran and Hezbollah with their elements of deterrence and a war of attrition tried to strike a balance whereby the impact could be maximised whilst the risk of a broader and more devastating conflict could be minimised.

Dr. Saraswat noted that Israel had put its ‘momentum plan’ into practice. She stressed that this encompassed the revision of the operational concept of victory which translated into rapid destruction of the enemy’s combat capabilities. This progressed into the designing of a multi-domain force that could handle cyber, electronic warfare, sensors, information processing, strike, and air and ground elements at the tactical level, under one command framework and toward one defined mission. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) took advantage of new sensors, artificial intelligence, and machine learning technology to regain a qualitative advantage over its adversaries. The pager attacks on Hezbollah, major Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior commanders, ground offensive limited to the border region were also discussed upon.

Hezbollah’s shift to conventional military tactics, the unsustainability of Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel and their subsequent weakening eventually resulted in the Hezbollah- Israel ceasefire. Dr. Saraswat mentioned that the ceasefire was largely a Lebanese decision with its Speaker of the Parliament, Nabih Berri playing a key mediatory role.

As for Iran, Dr. Saraswat emphasised how its Forward Defence strategy was to keep Iran away from the conflict alongside bolstering its deterrence capabilities. She pointed out how Iran didn’t retaliate following the killing of former Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh which was carried out amidst the oath-taking ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This was because Iran also wants to revive diplomacy with the West on its nuclear matters and push for a ceasefire in Gaza. She underscored that the April 2024 missile barrage by Iran towards Israel was largely demonstrative of the Iranian struggle in wanting to restore deterrence.

Further, Dr. Saraswat discussed the offensive launched by the Turkiye-backed rebels, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) since the 2020 ceasefire deal between Russia and Turkiye. She traced their swift advance from Idlib towards Aleppo, Hama, Homs and on to Damascus. She also drew attention to Assad’s pivot to the Gulf allies of the US. Iran faced logistical and operational constraints in supporting Assad. She also mentioned the Astana Format meeting on 7 December at Doha which agreed on a political solution and ending military operations.

Dr. Saraswat stated that Russia was no longer the key power broker in Syria and Iran’s strategic presence in the Levant was significantly weakened. Turkiye has gained by supporting the Jihadist rebels. However, Turkiye also did not anticipate some of the moves made by the rebels. Egypt, Jordan and Gulf Arabs see Islamists as ideational threats and popular challenges to regime stability. The Israeli threat perception of the Turkiye-Qatar alignment since they are the primary brokers of Hamas was also focused upon. From Jordan’s point of view, the Jihadists may destabilise them along with Egypt. She spoke about the threat perception of states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia with the challenge to monarchical rule. Israel’s Syria front: pre-emptive strikes and occupation in parts of Golan Heights which had been demilitarised as part of an agreement reached after the 1973 war was also discussed.

Dr. Saraswat concluded by looking into Iran’s strategic recalibration. She also focused on the importance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force with Iraq now being the primary defensive line for the IRGC. She highlighted the progression from ‘strategy of resistance’ to ‘Iran first’, Pezeshkian’s pitch for diplomacy and the collaboration with Arab neighbours. She also talked about the constructive engagement with the West on the nuclear and regional issues with the revision of the previous approach of not negotiating with the Trump administration.

Questions and Comments

The question and answer session focused on the roles of Russia and Iran in Syria. There was also discussion on whether it was the regional actors in West Asia or the great powers that determined the narratives playing out in West Asia, the emerging trends in Jihadi takeovers etc. Dr. Saraswat provided insightful responses to the questions and comments from the floor.

Report was prepared by Ms. Sandra Sajeev D Costa, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.