Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Al-Qaeda 2.0: The Resurgence of Jihadism in Syria?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 6 January 2025. The session was chaired by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The session provided comprehensive analysis on the topic Al-Qaeda 2.0: The Resurgence of Jihadism in Syria?;the rise to power of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), its relationship with Al-Qaeda and the future of jihadist movements globally.

Detailed Report

Ms. Kidwai provided an overview of the topic and highlighted the complexity of the Syrian conflict which gave rise to various Salafi-Jihadi groups, including Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s HTS. She underlined that al-Jolani has emerged as a key player in Syria’s post-Assad future. Furthermore, she questioned the impact of these developments on the future of jihadist movements worldwide.

In his opening remarks, Dr. Adil Rasheed discussed the rise of Abu Mohmmad Al-Jolani now known as Ahmad Al Shar’aa, presenting himself to the world in the present day as a reformed jihadist and a moderate Syrian nationalist. The Syrian region has many Salafi-Jihadist and nationalist opposition groups but it was the HTS which has eventually outstated the Al-Assad regime.

Dr. Rasheed stated that Al-Jolani and his HTS revolutionary group is being glorified by a section of the Western media. For instance, the CNN news network, once rated Al-Jolani as among the top 10 terrorists in the world, and the same news network recently interviewed Al-Jolani and projected him in a favourable light. Top officials from UN as well as French and German foreign ministers recently met Al Jolani in Damascus. The new Syrian leader has given an assurance that his forces will not wage war against any country and that his government will bring home thousands of Syrian refugees who migrated to other countries during the civil war. Al-Jolani has pledged in front of the global media to protect Christian and other minorities in the region. He was asked about his possible response to the Israeli ingress into Syrian territory, which is 20km away from Damascus. Al Jolani said that the new regime is presently too weak and his forces too exhausted to attempt reclaiming the lost territory.

The fear of him has been reinforced by the choice of his new intelligence chief in Anas Khattab, as he was a former ISIS member and marked as a wanted Al Qaeda terrorist by the UN Security Council. His appointment reminds one of  Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Specially Designated Global Terrorist who is now the first deputy leader of Afghanistan.

According to Dr. Rasheed there is a possibility that Syria may launch a Jihadist uprising against the CIS states. Al- Jolani has announced that there would be no elections in the country for at least the next four years. There are reports of ethnic cleansing of Christians being conducted by HTS linked jihadist forces in the region. Experts says that Christians living in the region might disappear from Syria. Tens of thousands of Shia Alawites, recently took to the streets in Latakia, Tartus, Homs, Hama and Qardaha in condemnation of the HTS militants’ desecration of an Alawite shrine in Aleppo. Dr. Rasheed highlighted that the new Syrian regime led by the HTS is like Taliban 2.0, the manifestation of Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s revised strategy to the global campaign against terrorism.

According to Dr. Rasheed Al-Qaeda started revising its strategies since the time the US decimated its bases in Afghanistan in 2001. Many of Salafi Al Qaeda ideologues were irate over Bin Laden’s Salafi compromise with doctrinally divergent Ashari-Deobandi Taliban. Al- Zarqawi after entering Al-Qaeda acted mostly independent of Bin Laden’s control and carried out brutal killings and beheadings. Abu Bakr has written a book on Zarqawi’s jihadism named “The Management of Savagery” in 2004. Syed Imam Al Shareef aka Dr. Fadl’s book “The Essentials of Preparing for War” was used as a jihad manual by Al-Qaeda in its Afghanistan training camps. Dr. Fadl was co-founder of Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda modified the book from a Jihad perspective and named it as “Document of Right Guidance for Jihad Activity. The Al-Qaeda and other terror groups have been more adaptive to a middle path. The lust for state power and territorial control has led Taliban in Afghanistan, Al-Shabaab and Islamic Courts Union in Somalia.

The Taliban did not try to avenge the killing of Al-Zawahiri with reprisal attacks and to the US Committee on Homeland Security in the House of Representatives, Katherine Zimmerman claimed in her speech that Al-Qaeda has “stopped” terror attacks for the time being. Al-Jolani’s Jabhatul Nusra split from Al-Qaeda in 2016 and made a comeback with HTS. Experts are suspicious of a deeper conspiracy. The deceased co-founder of Al-Qaeda admitted he did not support acts like 9/11. The Jihadist enclave of Idlib, Gulf States and Turkey based business groups have invested in infrastructure under Syrian Salvation Government. Al-Qaeda is trying to more be of a political Islamist Government rather than a militant jihadist power. They are embracing the local culture and welcoming trade and political relations in the region. Al-Qaeda is distancing itself from its extreme Salafi core and issue the principal articles of faith with Hanafi and other Central Asian and Indian subcontinent groups. Salafi Wahhabi jihadists consider Shia’s as worse than Jews, Christians and idol worshippers and they have carried out more attacks against the Shias in Iraq and Iran.

Dr. Rasheed said that the rise of HTS is definitely bad news for global peace and security. Syria has become a powder-keg and is ready to explode into violent extremism that will lead to a huge fall out in West Asia, Central Asia and even Europe. He mentioned the rise of Turkey and Syria as new revisionist powers. He has brought out that the Taliban and Pakistan feel exultant and India may face more Jihadist threats from the northwest.

Comments and Q&A

Scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of inquiries. The Director General, Amb. Chinoy made insightful comments on Al-Qaeda 2.0 in Syria. Attendees raised questions related to the rise of Al-Qaeda 2.0 in the region and its impact on India. Dr. Adil Rasheed appreciated the comments received and answered all the questions posed by the attendees.

This report was prepared by Ms. Sarika Ramnath, Intern, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.