Uttam Kumar Sinha

With the economy getting increasingly integrated and globalised, and infrastructure development being a key area, inland waterways will become critical to trade and growth. The recent National Waterways Act which has 111 inland rivers and channels as national waterways, up from six is a promising step in that direction

Historically, societies have always been located near water sources, largely because water enables efficient transport. At various stages in the history of economic growth, waterways have helped create economic wealth. During the colonial period, at the recorded peak in 1877, as many as 180,000 country cargo boats were registered at Kolkata, 124,000 at Hooghly and 62,000 at Patna. The fleet strength today is not even worth mentioning, which for information’s sake is probably about 500.

Around the 1940s, private sector passenger and cargo services were available up to Agra, and river services up River Ganga extended as far as Garhmukteshwar. Despite extension of the Assam-Bengal Railway from Lumding to Guwahati in 1901, in the Assam valley, 98 per cent of the weight of the trade was carried by river. Post-Independence, the importance of inland waterways in the stream of development thinking and process has remained much neglected in India.

But that might all change. Passed by Parliament and notified in March 2016, the National Waterways Act, 2016, has 111 inland rivers and channels as national waterways, up from the earlier figure of six. The Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI), established in 1986 through an Act of Parliament, is charged with undertaking feasibility studies for the designated national waterways before any development is operationalised.

Compared to other means of transport, inland waterways are the least capital-intensive. And with relatively low infrastructure costs, it is best suited to carry over-dimensional cargo (ODC). Despite such advantages, waterways trade constitutes less than 4 per cent of the total inland cargo movement in India. The percentage is significantly higher in other countries like China (47 per cent), Europe (40 per cent), Japan and Korea (44 per cent) and even Bangladesh (35 per cent).

China, in particular, considers inland port infrastructure critical to its global trade growth and has set ambitious targets to improve the waterways. The Yangtze River is being planned as an economic super-zone, or what is referred to as the Golden Waterway. The initiative calls for strengthening shipping capacity along the Yangtze by expanding roadway and railway networks, and building large-scale logistics centres. This is part of the Chinese Government’s ‘Go West’ policy from the East China Sea to Sichuan in the West. In the US, waterways have been developed and integrated as an efficient transportation system with more than 17,500 km of commercial navigation channels in about 48 States, A major factor in the waterways superiority of the US is the advances in ship building, material and engine design.

Valuing the waterways

“Nature had provided India with great navigable rivers which had been the high roads of trade from ancient times. And the system of canals, fed by these rivers, would have suited the requirements of the people for cheaper if slower transit, and would have at the same time increased production, ensured harvests and averted famines,” wrote Romesh Dutt, the eminent historian. He went on to describe how narrow commercial considerations prevented state’s involvement in river navigation, while road and rail enjoyed continuous state support during the British rule.

With a coastline of 7,500 km and with 14,500 km of potentially navigable waterways, India’s waterways development has been a sad case of out of sight, out of mind. In addition, there are about 116 rivers that can provide 35,000 km of navigable stretches. By overlooking these natural waterways, the logistics cost in India today runs very high at about 18 per cent. Comparatively in China it is 8-10 per cent and 10-12 per cent in most European countries. Inland waterways transport is cost-effective compared to rail and road. Calculations suggest that it costs Rs1.5 a km to carry the cargo from road, while the same stands at Rs1 from rail whereas through waterways it reduces to only 25 paise/km.

And in an age of environmentally sound approaches, trade on waterways leave a small carbon footprint. Estimates suggest that one horse power can carry 4,000 kg load in water, but only 150 kg by road and 500 kg by rail. One litre of fuel can move 105 tonne/km by inland waterways, but only 85 tonne/km by rail and 24 tonne/km by road.

Given the anticipated GDP growth of 8 per cent, the freight traffic is likely to reach 5,490 billion tonne km in 2020. There is thus a great potential to increase cargo movement on the waterways. The NDA Government’s emphasis on infrastructure development is bound to give a boost to inland navigation. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari is upbeat about setting targets and achieving them, and in this year’s budgetary allocation, Rs800 crore have been provided for development of waterways. A constant flow of funds, however, is required. Keeping this in mind, Gadkari is confident about raising another Rs800 crore through issuing tax-free bonds and is equally keen to explore multilateral funds, public-private partnership and market borrowing. The ports are expected to have profit of Rs6,000 crore this financial year, which will gradually increase. Besides, ports have fixed deposits worth Rs8,000 crore, which together can add to the cost of developing waterways.

Galvanising the neighbourhood

There has been considerable debate among the civil society, Government and regulatory authorities, and subject experts on the potential benefits and negative socio-environmental impacts of large-scale development and use of the 111 designated national waterways. The availability of limited data, information and research has further complicated the issue. What is of further concern, not forming part of the mainstream discourse, is the inability of the decision-makers and key influencers to use this opportunity to enhance regional cooperation on international rivers such as the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus.

On the contrary, on the IWAI website, the answer to question no 39 under the FAQ section of the Jal Marg Vikas project gives a strong indication of the bureaucracy’s reluctance to think out of the box and continue along the past models of river cooperation which have focused primarily on sharing water. Probably with the changing dynamics of current relationships with China and Nepal and with the current Government’s receptiveness to river management, it is indeed a good time to engage with these neighbouring Governments on the benefits of water transport, more so with Bangladesh.

The NDA Government has been a major driver and party to the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement that came into effect in November 2015 and covers passenger, personal and cargo vehicles. The agreement enables vehicles of these countries to enter each other’s territory and also does away with transshipment of goods from one country’s truck to another at the border, a time-consuming and costly process. The agreement will result in considerable savings and increased convenience in trade and travel among these four countries of South Asia.

Similarly, regional connectivity is being enhanced in South Asia through transmission and trade of power. While Bhutan is a major supplier of hydropower to India, it also imports electricity during lean flow season when its rivers do not have adequate water to produce enough power. Currently, Nepal is a net importer of power from India as is Bangladesh. However, the scenario with Nepal may reverse in the near future if it is able to develop its hydropower potential at a quicker pace.

Expanding the ambitious national plan to include trade to and through Bangladesh is the best first augmentation that could perhaps happen. Combing services of National Waterways-1 and NW-2 and NW-6 (through Bangladesh) will open up greater economic benefit to the North-Eastern States (which suffer from huge logistics cost of essential supplies), a cornerstone of the current Government’s policies.

More important is to think about the potential cargo movement that remains untapped and is expected to rise sharply. Currently, Bangladesh sources less than 10 per cent of import from India, and sends less than 1 per cent of exports — an obvious situation that will rapidly change for the better.

Bangladesh has recently taken a decision to dredge its rivers, and it will be advantageous for India to extend dredging services to Bangladesh. India plans to improve the night navigation services on NW-1 and NW-2, and there is no reason that such systems and technologies, such as the river navigation information system that India has installed on NW-1, should not be offered to Bangladesh as a goodwill. Surely, not a burden considering India is investing Rs400 crore or more in the first phase of augmentation of NW-1 alone.

India might also take advantage of the proposal for two ‘Indian SEZs’ in Bangladesh, and construct cargo terminals (which are in shortage in Bangladesh) in these places, so as to facilitate bilateral trade. Bangladesh should be persuaded to allow Indian vessels to load/unload at all designated ports of call, a courtesy that India offers to Bangladeshi vessels, and adopt improved vessel standards, as India is now mandating under the new draft law on inland and coastal shipping.

Out-of-box-thinking

A quick perusal of the list of 111 national waterways shows immense opportunities for transboundary and regional cooperation, as has been the case in the areas of motor vehicles and power. If the claim to a cheaper form of transport through waterways can be realised on the rivers in India, why not extend this benefit to trade with neighbouring countries?

This could result in substantial savings for the importers — countries such as Bangladesh and Nepal. If the claims of reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions turn into reality, it could enable India to take the leadership role in South Asia in meeting the global climate change mitigation-related challenges.

After all, the European Union was able to achieve its target of reduction GHG emissions in the transport sector through increased use of short sea shipping technique on its waterways. Given the fairly nascent stage of inland water transport in India (and also South Asia), innovations could be pursued in developing energy efficient shipping options that also emit reduced GHGs (such as those running on natural gas).

The large-scale development of the solar power sector in India has not only spurred innovations in reduced solar power production costs, but also innovative technologies and production techniques globally.

The inland water transport could also make a strong case for pursuing environmental flows in rivers such that the requirements of adequate depth and width of the navigation channel are maintained. The lower riparians, such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, would welcome such measures from India.

Also, the inland water transport framework and development provides an opportunity to re-imagine river basin cooperation in South Asia. From mere division of waters, as in the case of Indus Waters Treaty and Ganges Treaty signed by India with Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively, the discourse could shift to adding more value from the rivers and then sharing the benefits.

Export of agricultural produce from Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh and import of energy goods could receive a boost by reduced transport prices through the Indus and Ganga river systems. Already, both Bangladesh and Pakistan are moving very strongly towards utilisation of inland waterways for ferrying passengers and goods.

The planning and work on several national waterways on the shared/transboundary rivers could be coordinated among these countries to leverage maximum benefits to the people and economy. Transport costs of goods imported into Nepal would be reduced significantly if Indian and Nepalese authorities begin cooperation on extending the channels under the national waterway 58 on River Kosi, national waterway 37 on River Gandak, and others on the rivers being shared with Nepal.

Another unique feature of inland waterways is the ability to strengthen the negotiation power of the lower riparians by their ability of regulate access — such as those related to ship size, navigation time period, environmental regulations — for the upper riparian.

As India seeks to partner with the neighbours on river water cooperation, which includes a framework on inland water transport, it may find itself more equal to the lower riparians and lose some negotiating power as an upper riparian. But it need not take a non-engagement approach, as the resulting benefits — social, environmental, economic and political — that could be shared with the neighbours will outstrip all fears and perceived losses.

The article was originally published in The Pioneer

• Published: 12 June, 2016

In April 2016 Parliament approved the National Waterways Bill. This is a significant approval as the Bill provides for enacting a central legislation to declare 106 additional inland waterways as the national waterways in addition to five existing national waterways. The Centre derives the power for the regulation and development of inland waterways, declared by Parliament by law to be national waterways, as provided in the IWAI Act, 1985.

Inland waterways comprising rivers, lakes, canals, creeks and backwaters extend to about 14,500 km across the country. The legislation provides conversion of 15 rivers in West Bengal, 14 each in Assam and Maharashtra, 11 in Karnataka, 12 in Uttar Pradesh, 9 in Tamil Nadu and 6 each in Bihar and Goa and 5 each in Gujarat, Meghalaya, Odisha and Telangana, among others. It also includes plan to convert the Yamuna in Delhi and Haryana into a waterway. Five of the river-stretches, which have been declared as National Waterways, include AllahabadHaldia on Ganga (1,620 km), Brahmaputra’s Dhubri-Sadiya (891 km), West Coast Canal KottapuramKollam (205 km), KakinadaPuducherry canals (1,078 km) and East Coast Canal integrated with Brahmani river and Mahanadi delta rivers (588 km).

The passage of the Bill highlights the crucial importance of waterways in the economic development of the country, which for long remained a backburner. Equally important is the fact that the Bill showcases the consultative process of the Centre in allaying fears of the state governments that the new law will infringe upon their rights. The Union Road Transport, Highways and Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari clearly emphasised that, “the declaration of National Waterways does not restrict the rights of state governments in any way. It only facilitates Government of India in developing the waterway for shipping and navigation. It will not infringe upon their rights on minerals and water etc.”

The National Waterways Bill is a critically important development as India’s trade through the waterways constitutes only 3.5 per cent. In comparison, China’s waterwayslinked trade is 47 per cent; 40 per cent in Europe, 44 per cent in Japan and Korea and 35 per cent in Bangladesh. There can be no doubt that inland water development is a cost-effective mode of transportation. Often it has been said that it is far easier and less expensive to transport goods from Mumbai to London than it is from Mumbai to Delhi. In this context, the Minister said that inland waterways cost only 30 paise to move cargo through waterways in comparison to Rs 1.5 through road and Rupee one from rail”.

The Bill also ensures that it is equally environment-friendly especially in protecting the riverine ecology and fisheries and importantly tackling pollution. The techno-economic feasibility undertaken by the Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI) and various Environmental Impact Assessments were carried out and the Parliament was appraised before the Bills for declaration were processed. What also comes out strikingly from the passage of the Bill is the will and confidence of the government to fulfil the task. The Minister expressed that once the existing five National Waterways gains momentum, it will “revolutionise” water transport in the country.

Inland Waterways a Tool for Progress

As experienced globally, inland waterways interlink three important issues:

• Tool for industrial development: The competitive edge of key industries (steel, agro, oil & minerals) on the global market strongly relies on cost-effective inbound and outbound shipments of raw materials by waterways. A positive chain effect is established that can directly benefits non-waterway regions through competitive pricing of end products.
• Tool for economic growth: In densely populated parts of India with strong industry presence, inland waterways will help keep goods moving by avoiding a traffic gridlock when economic growth leads to rising freight volumes again. Investments in waterways infrastructure will serve, besides sustainable transport, regional development and tourism. The ‘neighbourhood first’ approach of the government will get adequate boost by developing India’s inland waterways.
• Tool for sustainable development: Clearly inland waterway transport will reduce negative externalities. Investments in waterways will serve biodiversity and integrated water management.

Plans that enhance the maximization of these three tools will be important. The plan should aim at removing the technical, operational and administrative barriers. Central to the development of the waterways in India, which are spread in different parts, is the aspirations of the people. Therefore, the emphasis must be on simultaneous development of all waterways.

Clearly the social and environmental benefits of inland water transport are potentially high. Reduced fuel consumption, reduced global warming, cheaper goods and services for customers, more fisheries and wildlife, less accidents on road, decongested highways, cheaper travel opportunities for riverine communities are some very immediate benefits. Fishing can become a viable livelihood option again for the riverine communities. Importantly, it will also force cities and towns to reduce untreated sewage into rivers as they will tend to decrease the economic value of the river.

Inland water transport is also a good project for regional cooperation, both in the east and west of India. The Indus river system offers great potential for inland water transport for the northern and north-western states. Likewise, the Ganga system offers for the northern and eastern states and the Brahmaputra for the eastern and north-eastern states. Similarly, the waterways can form partnerships among peninsular states of India.

Conclusion

There are a wide range of benefits provided by inland waterways. These include creation of business opportunities and jobs, and public benefits, such as recreation. Some of the key benefits provided by inland waterways may lie in those areas which are currently not quantified and valued, such as drainage and community benefits including a sense of civic pride. Further evidence on the benefits of green transport opportunities is also required as these may prove to play a significant role in reducing travel carbon emissions. These are high on the government’s agenda.

Thus it is important to conduct further evaluation work in order to provide more values and benefits for a large number of people. How the public perceive and value the benefits of inland waterways will be important and a valuable contribution to peoples’ quality of life. The wider value of inland waterways should be fully appreciated so that important benefits are not missed or that other benefits provided by the waterways network are not compromised.

The Bill declaring 111 national waterways is a farsighted and bold decision. However, the detailed technical, economic and environmental analysis in accordance with the principles of integrated water resources management should continue including taking all stake holders on board. The inland waterways should be accorded the same attention as given to the rail and road.

The article was originally published in the The Nationalist

• Published: 2 May, 2016

Every success symbolises a new beginning. In all fairness and leaving aside some merchants of doubts and the rigid sceptics, the Paris climate agreement can be regarded as a breakthrough or as the UN secretary general described “a monumental triumph”.

Unlike the other conference of the parties (COP) to the UNFCCC agreements, the Paris agreement finely balanced ambition of aggressively reducing greenhouse gases emission and yet upholding the principle of differentiation in efforts between the rich developed and developing countries and very crucially mobilising financial resources to support the efforts for a decarbonised world. But more significantly, the agreement provides the much needed space for facilitating action to empower the poorest people and developing countries in their efforts to achieve sustainable and people-centred development. In a nutshell climate justice! Indeed in any effort to secure global justice the disempowered and the marginalised people, vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, cannot be neglected. With the world in unison, a transition to a decarbonised economy by focusing on solar, wind and hydro as well as grid integration, energy efficiency and demand management is quite achievable.

The emphasis on renewable was the hallmark of the climate summit and solar was, in a sense, the “game-changer”. Taking the initiative and seizing the opportunity, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the international solar alliance (ISA) of over 120 countries along with the French president Francois Hollande. Calling it “the sunrise of new hope”, Modi clearly demonstrated that India is ready to take on the challenges of climate with such bold approaches.

Earlier in October, the Prime Minister took the lead by launching a group of 107 sunshine countries at the India-Africa Summit and calling them “suryaputra”. This alliance is called the International Agency for Solar Policy and Application (IASPA). Taking the alliance seriously, the government has pledged to invest USD 30 million and set up the alliance headquarters in India with an eventual aim of raising USD 400 million. The power from the sun emphasised India’s own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) action plan which outlines an increase in non-fossil based power capacity to 40 per cent by 2030. The renewable road map is ambitious yet achievable with 175 GW by 2022 and an additional 200 GW by 2030. The solar component is 100 GW by 2022 and with the solar technology fast evolving, costs increasingly coming down and better grid connectivity, India can achieve a much higher target of solar energy.

The solar stress has made the world look at India in a new light. With 300 million people without electricity (described as energy poverty) and with vast coal resources, India’s development has always posed a moral question – to pollute and develop like what the western developed countries did or to develop with responsibility. India’s renewable roadmap is a stamp of its leadership role in the climate conundrum, what Hollande described as “climate justice in action”. As a serious follower of the climate debate and a keen observer of the COP summits, I have never seen India bring so much of positivity and drive. India has emerged as the natural leader of the solar alliance and Modi as the “clean energy enabler” as someone remarked in Paris.

Leadership can inspire. It can equally trigger a series of responses and commitments, for example, the US and 18 other countries promised to provide USD 20 billion for clean energy research by 2020. Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook have set up the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, which will act as an investment platform for clean energy technologies. The rulers of Dubai, an oil-rich emirate, have announced USD 27 billion to set up solar panels on every rooftop in Dubai by 2030.

For long, we were clubbed as climate deniers by the western world, painting us as the polluter. While we solidly argued our development motives and defended the ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ (CBDR), we now have taken the ‘respective capabilities’ principle soundly forward with voluntary targets and with necessary financial and technological help. The climate change issue and the NDA government’s position is not a partisan one but one of national consensus. This is refreshing in a rather contentious politics and a non-functioning Parliament.

The Paris agreement is a great example on how to collectively deal with the intertwined challenges of climate. Foremost, to be bold and ambitious is not necessarily foolish and certainly has merit, especially when more action is required than words. By announcing that the world will aim to limit global temperature rise to “below 1.5 C” from the earlier internationally accepted 2 C, was uniquely pathbreaking. For long, scientists have voiced that the 2C was a politically convenient target with no great drive to counter the rising temperature. It was being viewed as almost inevitable and that the world would have to simply learn to adapt with the changing climate. Now with the ambitious aim of 1.5C, the global desire brings in the need for greater differentiation between the developed and developing countries with the former having to take more emissions cut and to help developing countries in supporting financial and technological resources to achieve the target.

The Paris agreement ties together ambition, differentiation and finance in inseparable ways – triumvirate so to speak. This is how the climate roadmap largely will be defined and its success and failure will depend on the tightness of the triumvirate. The final text of the Paris agreement after days and long hours of negotiations is a triumph of the Indian negotiators and the Ministry of Environment and Forests and Climate Change (MoEF).

It is important to note that for the first time in COP summits, India set up a pavilion highlighting the climate issues, the actions towards meeting the challenges as well as India’s parampara of climate friendly sustainable practices. Interestingly, the India pavilion was next to Germany which said, “Below 2C – together we’ll make it”. Quite a coincidence given that India-German collaboration on cleaning rivers and on renewable will be critical.

Integrated coastal management was another significant highlight. With a coast-line of 7500-km, with about 1300 islands and about 25 per cent of the population living along the coast, sea level rise and its impact on coastal ecosystem are a huge challenge for India. Importantly, the Sunderban ecosystem shared between India and Bangladesh was discussed and the Indian minister for environment and forests Prakash Javadekar showing fine climate diplomacy reached out to the Bangladesh environment minister Anwar Hossain Manju and invited him to the Indian pavilion to share the Sunderban experience with both emphasising on joint management and cooperation of the shared ecosystem. The Bangladesh minister’s observation on the greatness of India’s democracy and the lessons that the neighbouring countries can learn was not just customary but reflected the goodwill that Bangladesh has towards India and the willingness to cooperate on critical issues. This side-event, one of the many such events facilitated by the MoEF, carried forward the 2011 MoU on Sunderban signed between India and Bangladesh. It is now hoped that the Sunderban mangrove forest with its huge carbon absorption capacity will gain the necessary policy traction and can lead to better management of this very vulnerable ecosystem.

As climate continues to change, and as actions are being forged, it is important to re-conceptualize and re-imagine regions from an ecosystem perspective. For example, South Asia should be seen as a ‘riverine neighbourhood’ or a ‘Himalayan watershed’ or a ‘monsoon Asia’ or a ‘glacial Asia’. Such kind of conceptulisation is a departure from the conventional ways of dividing the world into political-geography to using specific ecosystem to understand regions as one organic continuum and as an organic cultural whole. Viewing seas as a great “commons” or considering Himalaya as the ultimate watershed or charting the monsoon as a rain-dependent phenomena gives us a new lens to look at the world. It is said, “Man and not nature initiates, but nature in large measures control”. Ideas will thus have to meet the dictates of ecosystem.

What we also see in India’s climate policy is a recall to a traditional notion of sri-yantra or geo-philosophy. This means a confluence of science, philosophy, spirituality, and politics to achieve peace and prosperity.

(Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha is a Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. He was part of the panel discussion on the Sunderban experience at the COP 21 in Paris.)

This article was originally published in Nationalist e-journal.

• Published: 12 January, 2016

Research Fellow, IDSA, Dr Uttam Sinha's chapter titled, ‘Towards Riparian Rationality: An Indian Perspective’ was published in the volume China-India Relations: Cooperation and Conflict, (eds) Kanti Bajpai, Huang Jing and Kishore Mahbubani (Routledge, 2015).

About the Book

The question of whether China and India can cooperate is at the core of global geopolitics. As the two countries grow their economies, the potential for conflict is no longer simply a geopolitical one based on relative power, influence and traditional quarrels over land boundaries.

This book assesses the varying interests of China and India in economics, environment, energy, and water and addresses the possibility of cooperation in these domains. Containing analyses by leading authorities on China and India, it analyses the nature of existing and emerging conflict, describes the extent of cooperation, and suggests possibilities for collaboration in the future. While it is often suggested that conflict between the giants of Asia is the norm, there are a number of opportunities for cooperation in trade, international and regional financial institutions, renewable energy development and climate change, and shared rivers.

This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of Asian Studies, International Relations, and Asian Politics.

Read the book [+]

• Published: 22 December, 2015

Research Fellow, IDSA, Dr Uttam Sinha’s article, titled ‘Fair vermeiden’ was published in the November 2015-February 2016 edition of the German publication, IP Landerportrat.

Read complete article [+]

• Published: 19 November, 2015

Research Fellow, IDSA, Dr Uttam Sinha's chapter ‘Challenges to the Himalayan Watershed’ was published in the volume ‘Himalayan Bridge’edited by Niraj Kumar, George Van Driem and P Stobdan.

Abstract of the Chapter

This chapter observes the driving forces behind the water demand, on the political obstacles that stand in the way of river cooperation and the behaviour of riparians in the backdrop of the changing Himalayan hydrology.

More details [+]

• Published: 20 October, 2015

A global temperature rise is being experienced earliest and most intensely in the Arctic region. The changes are worrying but the commercial interests are equally enticing. The Arctic is witnessing the convergence of the geophysical, the geo-economic and the geostrategic in strange and dramatic ways, making it a paradox and an antithesis. For India, the Arctic is distant when it comes to economic interests and near when it comes to climate change.

• Published: November 2014
• Strategic Analysis

With water concerns growing increasingly urgent, the global community will benefit from a treatment of the lessons learned and best practices in water dispute resolutions and approaches to water management. This report discusses the outcome of a working group of water experts from the Near East and South Asia (NESA) region,1 set up by the Strategic Studies Network, National Defense University, Washington DC.

• Published: September 2014
• Strategic Analysis

The Arctic ice is melting faster than predicted. In August 2012, calculations based on the satellite imagery indicated that the summer sea ice loss was 50 per cent higher than earlier estimates. 1 Scientific evidence now suggests that the Arctic, by the middle of the century, will be ice free in the summer. Scientists call it the ‘Arctic amplification’—the reduction in the ice cover not only reduces the reflection of the sunlight but also increases the absorption of heat as the darker water is exposed.

• Published: January 2013
• Strategic Analysis

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is the most significant confidence-building measure between India and Pakistan. Despite the wars and hostilities, the IWT has functioned well since it was signed in 1960. However, one cannot ignore the challenges of future supplies of fresh water between the two countries. The article delves into a historical account of how the treaty came about, the salient features of the treaty and examines whether ‘water rationality’ will continue to govern the riparian relationship or whether ‘water sharing’ will open up a new front of contentious politics.

• Published: September 2012
• Strategic Analysis