Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Anand Kumar

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Dr. Anand Kumar is an Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. After completing his PhD from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) on “Germany and UN Peacekeeping Operations in the post-Cold War Era”, he joined MP-IDSA in 2007. Over the years, Dr. Kumar has worked on strategic issues gaining reputation as a leading security expert. His areas of specialization at MP-IDSA are Counter-terrorism, South Asian politics, Bangladesh, Maldives, Proliferation of Small Arms and Low intensity conflicts. He has completed three projects at MP-IDSA: “Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Indo-Bangladesh Relations”, “Terrorism Challenges in Bangladesh”, “Bangladesh and Its Security Relationship with External Powers” and is currently engaged in studying “China as a Factor in the US Engagement with South Asia.” Before joining MP-IDSA, he worked at the South Asia Analysis Group on similar themes. He has also been with the Institute for Conflict Management which specializes on counter-terrorism. Dr. Kumar also has a good understanding of European and North American politics.

Dr. Kumar was a visiting professor and ICCR Chair (Indian Ocean Studies) in the University of Dar-Es-Salaam (UDSM) from November 2017 to November 2019. He worked in the department of political science and public administration. In UDSM he taught Counter-terrorism, regional integration, peacemaking and conflict resolution. He also closely followed issues related to African politics, economics and security.

Dr. Kumar has authored three books and has an edited volume. His latest book Bangladesh and Its Security Relationship with External Powers was published by K W Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in 2021. His book on the Maldives entitled “Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region” was published by Pentagon Press, New Delhi in 2016. His first book Return from the Precipice: Bangladesh’s Fight against Terrorism, and the edited volume The Terror Challenge in South Asia and Prospect of Regional Cooperation were also published by Pentagon Security International, New Delhi. He has published over 30 research papers in reputed journals and edited books. He has delivered lectures on security issues both in India and abroad. He has participated and presented papers in national and international conferences. His article “Shaikh Hasina’s Visit to India and the future of Indo-Bangladesh Relations” was published by the Royal Society for Asia Affairs, London in their official journal Asian Affairs. He has published hundreds of articles in leading newspapers and magazines, including “Insurgency in South Asia muted by war on terror,” The Washington Times, January 16, 2004, and “The Jihadi Next Door,” The Washington Times, May 20, 2010.

Associate Fellow
Email: anand_rai@hotmail.com, anandkmrai@gmail.com
Phone: +91 11 2671 7983

Publication

The Challenges of Intelligence Reform: India in the post-9/11 Era

Associate Fellow, IDSA, Dr Anand Kumar’s paper entitled ‘The Challenges of Intelligence Reform: India in the post-9/11 Era,’ was published in the book ‘Intelligence, National Security, and Foreign Policy: A South Asia Narrative’, edited by ASM Ali Ashraf and published by the Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs (BILIA) and Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.

  • Published: 22 November, 2016

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India-Pak ties: We need to act more, talk less

India seems to be desperately searching for an option to adequately respond to Pakistan in the aftermath of the attack on the security forces in Uri in Jammu and Kashmir by the Pakistani-sponsored terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad. This time the search for options against Pakistan is intense because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now in power has been talking of tough action against Pakistan to prevent the recurrence of such incidents. The real options, however, still seem elusive.

Talking to Pakistan pacifies that country temporarily but it is not a permanent solution. It has been noticed in the past that while such peace initiatives have been going on, a section in that country always tries to scuttle such endeavours. Pakistan raises the temperature at regular intervals by launching terror attacks and during the Kargil conflict even went for a mini war.

India has to realise that we are faced with a rogue state in our neighbourhood. What is worse, this rogue state considers India as an existential threat. India may not have hostile intentions towards Pakistan but this is what Pakistan believes in. It still believes in bleeding India through a thousand cuts. If Pakistan considers India as an existential threat, then there is no point talking to it.

It will not lead to the solution of any of the bilateral problems, and this is what has been happening. Pakistan uses issues like Kashmir to rationalise its hostile behaviour. Kashmir became an issue simply because the Indian State has not handled it properly. On the other hand, countries like China successfully turned critical issues like Tibet into a non-issue. Even Pakistan plans to incorporate Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) by going for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, Pakistan has managed to keep the pot boiling in the Kashmir Valley and to bring undue international attention. India does not seem to have a plan to deal with the Kashmir turmoil. The very rational of Pakistan army, the most important functioning institution of Pakistan, is to wage war against India. Often, it is suggested that this army does not want amicable relations between these two countries. If relations between these two countries become normal then how would Pakistan army justify its existence and the massive resources it corners in Pakistan? The Pakistan army at present decides all important foreign policy issues, including towards India. It’s hardly surprising that this policy is full of hostility. Of late, democracy in Pakistan has been on the backfoot and the control of Pakistan army is increasing. In fact, some Pakistani scholars go as far as to suggest that Pakistan has actually never seen democracy. It has only seen military rule of various kinds and extent.

The way the Pakistani State is structured at present and the way it functions, it is impossible to expect any responsible behaviour from them. The presence of nuclear weapons in the hand of this rogue state has further complicated the situation. In the past, it was suggested by some that if India responds militarily then it would be walking into the trap laid by Pakistan. The fear of war escalating into nuclear conflict is also cited. But then it would mean that India should prepare itself to take terror blows from Pakistan at regular intervals. This would be a policy of pusillanimity.

A section in India has argued that India should do much more for its neighbours, without expecting any reciprocation. Possibly, following this policy India gave the one-way most-favoured nation (MFN_ status to Pakistan. Unfortunately, Pakistan construed it India’s desperation to buy peace. In Pakistan, the debate is still on about how it can give the MFN status to India, a preferred enemy state.

India on its part has still not decided whether Pakistan is an enemy state or not. In fact, one of the Indian Prime Ministers is known to have weakened the covert capability of the country against Pakistan. It’s quite clear that the country has no consistent policy towards Pakistan. We look for options when attacked but start yearning for peace after a few days. But it seems Pakistan has decided that it will not let us live in peace.

No knee-jerk reaction is warranted in the aftermath of the Uri attack, but a well-thought-out reaction is needed to tell Pakistan that its proxy war would no longer be tolerated. It’s quite ironical that the Rafale agreement that has been hanging fire for 16 years was finalised after the Uri attack. Similarly, this attack should also act as a trigger to expedite Modi’s Make in India programme in modern weapon systems.

It has been argued that India is no Israel or the US to take action in such cases. However, both these countries are able to act against their adversaries because they enjoy overwhelming military superiority. Hence, now onwards India should also work to create this overwhelming conventional military superiority vis-à-vis Pakistan, if not China. Only this will deter Pakistan from its regular terror incursions and not so-called “diplomatic isolation”. Diplomacy often gives only legal cover to military actions and this is where India needs to improve its capability.

The much-talked-about manipulation of the Indus Water Treaty also seems to be no option at present in the absence of suitable infrastructure to control the water flow. However, this is also one area where India can start doing the needful so that it can tighten screws as and when required.

Last but not the least, India should also be ready with a post-Pakistan strategy in case this happens either because of the domestic situation in that country or because of a war.

It’s foolish to think that a long-standing problem like Pakistan would have a quick-fix just because a BJP-led government is in power. India will have to create overwhelming asymmetry in conventional power, use the Indus Water Treaty as a pressure point and keep a post-Pakistan plan ready for effective solution of Pakistan-engendered security problems. It may take some time, but the Indian government should start working towards it and there should be a consensus on this issue across the political divide. It should not necessarily be the agenda only of any one political party.

The article was originally published in The Tribune

  • Published: 29 September, 2016

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Bangladesh terror attacks: India next?

Increased terror strikes in Bangladesh would bring political instability, which isn't in the interest of India.

The terror attack in Dhaka café caused concern not only in Bangladesh but all over the world. This concern was for several reasons. To begin with, this attack was seen similar to attacks that had taken place in Paris, Brussels and Ankara. Moreover, these attacks were claimed by the dreaded terror organisation Islamic State (IS) in which a number of westerners were killed.

However, this attack is also concerning for India which is already facing regular onslaught of terror from its western frontier. The organisational presence of the IS and al-Qaeda is still not confirmed in Bangladesh and the Sheikh Hasina government vehemently to denies it, but what can’t be denied is the presence of local groups who claim allegiance to these international terror organisations.

At present, prominent Islamist groups in Bangladesh are Jama’at ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Hizb-ut-Tahrir. The JMB claims allegiance to IS while ABT is loyal to al-Qaeda. Hizb-ut-Tahrir itself is an international Islamist organisation, hence it does not need to claim allegiance to any such group. Reports indicate that sometime back, there has been a meeting of these groups where they decided to work together as their ultimate objective is same and that is implementation of Sharia law.

The concern for India arises from the fact that groups like the JMB are active on both sides of the India-Bangladesh border. It is greatly helped in its operation by the porous nature of this border. Though JMB has been active on the Indian side of the border for many years, its activities became public after the Burdwan blast.

A number of suspects of Burdwan blast were arrested in Bangladesh as intelligence and investigative agencies of both sides worked in close cooperation with each other. But the arrests also indicated the seamless fashion in which this group was operating on both sides of the border.

The JMB on several occasions has been prominently mentioned by the IS in its Dabiq magazine. It is also appreciative of JMB for its terror activities in Bangladesh and for working to establish Sharia law in the country. It also praises JMB for willing to be part of the Caliphate established by the IS. What is most interesting is the fact that IS refers this area as Bengal and not Bangladesh.

This means that when it talks about JMB and its activities it means both sides of the border. Even in the past, Bangladeshi terror groups have been talking of Greater Bangladesh, but for the first time, an international terror outfit seems to be referring to this.

Here, it is interesting to note that another Islamist group Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has also been warning that attack to India and Myanmar would come from Bangladesh using local recruits in respective countries.

Its India-born chief, Asim Umar has been recently designated as a “global terrorist” by the USA. Umar has received extensive training by the ISI in Pakistan. An increased terror activity in Bangladesh would mean that the country could also be subsequently used as spring board for attacks on India.

More attacks?

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina expects further increase in terror activities in her country in the coming days. She suspects that relatives of those Jamaat leaders who have been hanged may organise these attacks as they have vast resources.

The government has also shared a list of 10 Jamaat-Ul-Mujahideen (JMB) Bangladesh cadres with the Government of India along with their images – they are suspected to have sneaked into the Indian territory. These JMB cadres are suspected to have played a role in the Dhaka café attack and have fled the country to avoid arrests. They are believed to be hiding in north Bengal.

Increased terrorist attacks in Bangladesh would also bring political instability in that country. Once again that would not be in the interest of India. A politically unstable neighbour has always been a security risk to us. This can be very well seen in Pakistan, Afghanistan and to some extent in Nepal.

On the other hand, a politically stable Bangladesh with Sheikh Hasina at the helm of affairs has enhanced security on India’s eastern border. Moreover, it has been extremely beneficial for the Bangladeshi population as its economy has grown continuously at 6-7%.

A politically stable Bang-ladesh is also important for regional cooperation as sometime back India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan launched their BBIN initiative. This initiative would bear fruit only in a peaceful situation.

Clearly, increased terrorist violence in Bangladesh is also going to create problems for India. There is a need for security agencies of both countries to work together in close cooperation so that vicious design of these terror groups can be defeated and the region can continue to move on the path of progress.

(The writer is Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi)

  • Published: 22 July, 2016

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Is Pakistan developing ‘strategic assets’ in Bangladesh?

It is no secret that Pakistan has a dual approach to terrorism. While it takes certain terror groups as threat to Pakistani state and wants to uproot them, at the same time it also wants to use another set of terror groups as strategic asset against its next door neighbor India. Under this strategy it launched Zarb-e-Azb against Teherik-e-Taliban considered a threat to Pakistan but keeps nurturing Taliban active in Afghanistan. It also nurtures Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and other similar groups which have chosen India as their target. The Indian state seems to be fighting a continuous battle against the Pakistan sponsored terror groups. However, Pakistan despite its nefarious acts does not seem to be succeeding in its design. To cause further trouble to India, Pakistan is now trying to open another front using terror groups liked by Pakistani state. This new front is from the side of Bangladesh, using Bangladeshi extremists as insurgency in northeast India is almost dead.

Pakistan has been uncomfortable with the Sheikh Hasina government after she took over power in January 2009. This discomfort was for two reasons. First it disrupted the cozy relationship with Bangladesh that it had built during the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – Jamaat regime as Sheikh Hasina decided to go after the terrorist groups of all variety. She acted against Islamists groups of Bangladesh as well as against groups like Let and JeM who were Pakistani but were trying to develop base in Bangladesh or at least link with the Bangladeshi terror groups. She also acted against northeast insurgents. In fact, her actions resulted in giving death blow to groups like United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA).

Secondly, she was also disliked by Pakistan because she showed her desire to go for war crime trials and wanted to prosecute Jamaat-e-Islami leaders. The Jamaat-e-Islami had supported Pakistan during the Liberation War and still remains the most important constituency for Pakistan in Bangladesh. Though the BNP has also been pro-Pakistan in the past, it is somewhat difficult for the party under present circumstances to be as brazen as Jamaat has been all along. What was worse for Pakistan, Sheikh Hasina also wanted to try some of the Pakistan army men who were engaged in brutality against the Bangladeshi people during the Liberation War.

To stop Sheikh Hasina from proceeding ahead with war crime trials, then Pakistan president Asif Ali Zardari had sent his special envoy Zia Ispahani to meet her. In the meeting Sheikh Hasina however expressed her determination to complete the war crime trials which was a long-standing issue in liberated Bangladesh. After that Zia Ispahani met Khaleda Zia. Interestingly, immediately after his return there was mutiny in the para-military force Bangladesh Rifle (BDR). This mutiny is known for the brutal killings of BDR officers who were mostly from the Bangladesh army and reminded people of the brutality of Pakistani armed forces during the liberation war. It was widely believed in Bangladesh that Pakistan was behind the BDR mutiny which nearly swept away the Sheikh Hasina government.

Both BNP and Jamaat have been friendly to Pakistan and in fact during the rule of the BNP led four-party regime (2001-06) the Pakistani High Commission in Bangladesh acted as a base for the ISI. Though ISI activities in Bangladesh are still intact to a great extent, ISI does not enjoy the same freedom. Moreover, both the BNP and Jamaat have been under pressure in recent time. Top BNP leaders are being prosecuted for corruption or inciting violence. Its senior vice chairman Tarique Rahman who is also political heir to Khaleda Zia is in London facing several charges. Most of the top leaders of Jamaat were prosecuted for war crimes and hanged. With BNP and Jamaat under pressure, it is no surprise that Pakistan would have lent a hand in recent terror attacks in Bangladesh including the most sensational one that took place in a Dhaka café.

The hanging of Jamaat leaders has led to a considerable decline in Bangladesh – Pakistan relationship. Pakistan has invariably criticized every such hanging. In Bangladesh this kind of Pakistani criticism was seen as interference in the internal affairs. It also indicated that Pakistan has still not reconciled to liberation of Bangladesh. Both sides lodged complaint with High Commissioners of each other. Bangladesh even considered withdrawing its High Commissioner from Pakistan.

In Bangladesh, a Pakistani female diplomat was seen liaising with Bangladeshi terrorist groups. The role of the female diplomat became very controversial and she had to be withdrawn once her identity became public. It is hardly surprising that Pakistan has used the services of Bangladeshi extremist groups for recent terror attacks in that country. After the first Afghan War (1979-89) against the Soviet Union nearly 2000 battle hardened Bangladeshis had returned to their country. They had formed terrorist organizations like HUJI and JMB. These groups indulged in a series of terrorist attacks from 1999-2005. Militant activity of the JMB declined considerably after its top leadership was hanged by the caretaker government in 2007. Under pressure, actually a number of JMB cadres moved to Indian side of Bengal. Some of these cadres are also probably behind the recent revival of JMB in Bangladesh.

According to Hasanul Huq Inu, information minister of Bangladesh, in another wave recently 8000 Bangladeshis trained in camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan have returned to Bangladesh. One can well imagine what kind of havoc these trained militants are going to cause to Bangladesh who are likely to share a close relationship with the ISI and the terror groups it supports within Pakistan.

The displeasure of Pakistan with a secular and progressive regime in Bangladesh is quite obvious. In these circumstances it would not be surprising that Pakistan would try to create political instability in Bangladesh. And the best way to do it is through the Islamist extremist groups who now claim to be aligned to al-Qaeda and ISIS. Pakistan can also subsequently use these terror groups to launch terror attacks against India without being blamed. The terror groups like Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) have shown intention to attack India and Myanmar from Bangladesh. Pakistan would be only too happy to use Bangladeshi terror groups for the strategic advantage on India’s eastern border.

The article was originally published in the South Asia Monitor.

  • Published: 18 July, 2016

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