The states of West Asia and North Africa (WANA) continue to grapple with dramatic changes taking place in the domestic and regional environment. Security has emerged as a significant concern. The political upheavals, civil strife, sectarian violence, and terrorism in the area have implications for the regional and global order. As the region grapples with myriad socio-economic problems, many extra-regional players and non-state actors, and a few regional ones, are attempting to carve out their own areas of influence. These developments across WANA demand constant monitoring, careful analyses and more frequent exchanges among the members of the strategic community to chart a course towards enduring regional and global security.
The breakdown of the central authority in states such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya followed by tumultuous civil wars underscores the volatility that post-‘Arab Spring’ West Asian states suffer from. Further, the transnational nature of ‘third generation’ Islamist terrorism, its regional potency and global reach underline the fragility WANA endures. The 2003 United States attack on Iraq and the security vacuum it created in the country were filled by sectarian militias that took advantage of the 2011 uprising in the neighbouring countries and expanded their activities, especially taking control of territories in Syria and Iraq. Islamist terrorism has become a potent and destructive regional threat that stands against all global, regional and local players. The terrorists, in their most gory manifestation, have regrouped as the Islamic State (IS) or Da’esh, which in 2014-15 threatened to reorient regional boundaries and established a khilafah in the Levant. Though militarily defeated, the ISIS remains a potent threat. Its ability to continue inspiring lone-wolf attacks and attract youth from across the globe continues to be a major security threat for all countries. More importantly, the ISIS has metamorphosed into a ‘cyber-Caliphate’ through which it inspired lone-wolf attacks in Europe, the United States and other parts of the world.
The present state of regional disarray has led to a new power dynamic, whereby the role of the United States as the predominant force for security and stability is being challenged by a combination of other powers — a renascent Russia, a resurgent Iran, and economically influential China. The reluctance of the Obama administration to fight regional wars and its indecisiveness in dealing with emergent situations, especially in Syria and Iraq, created a void. The Trump administration has promised to change the American policy but a clear picture remains elusive. Russia and Iran have backed the Syrian regime which has reassured and strengthened its position, but has undermined the role of many regional players, especially the Gulf monarchies led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Likewise, it has made Israel uncomfortable due to its extreme sensitivity of Iranian rise and its national security. This has created a complex web of alignments and realignments between regional, international and non-state actors, including fissures among the Gulf Cooperation Council States.
For one, Turkey under Erdogan has locked horns with the United States over the latter’s policy to continue supporting Syrian Kurds and is seen to be courting Russia. Similarly, the concern over growing Iranian influence in the region has brought Arab Gulf states and Israel closer without any formal acknowledgement. Egypt, while continuing to face internal disturbances, has engaged with both the United States and Russia to contain the effects of the Libyan crisis from spilling over to the whole of Maghreb. The impact of terrorism and the refugee crisis in Europe, both originating from WANA, and the response by European society and leadership to these threats, open newer dynamics in global and regional politics and threatens to revive older fault lines between Turkey and Europe. With civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya emerging major theatres of conflict, the entire region has been adversely affected by the regional tumult.
The Russian involvement in Syria and ability to alter the power dynamics back in favour of the regime has made it a de facto regional player. Regional heavyweights in Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have been playing major roles in conflicts in more than one country. While the entry of Russia is notable, the rise of the Kurds and a resurgent Kurdish nationalism, especially in Iraq and Syria and its impact on regional politics is significant. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq is weighing its chances about pushing for larger autonomy while Syrian Kurds have received significant United States backing in carving out a de facto autonomous region of Rojava in northern Syria. Kurdish militias have proved to be a major force in fighting the ISIS and in return are looking to claim stakes for the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria. This has unnerved Turkey which is struggling with a resurgent PKK (Kurdish: Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan) at home and hence has intervened militarily in northern Syria to prevent Syrian Kurds from achieving Iraq like autonomy.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are locked in rivalry. Iran has significantly enhanced its footprints through allies and powerful non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansarallah (Houthi militia in Yemen) and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been vocal in condemning Iran for regional turmoil. The formation of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), an intergovernmental counter-terrorist alliance of 41 Sunni countries led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a significant development with possibly far-reaching implications. Among some independent observers, this Sunni grouping of militaries is viewed to be as much a front against terrorist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, as it is against the growing Shiite ascendance in the region, led by Iran. The mainly geopolitical rivalry has been punctuated by deeply entrenched sectarian animosity, through proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Though the Trump administration is yet to unveil any comprehensive foreign policy, its focus on the Middle East peace process and the choice of Saudi Arabia and Israel for President Trump’s first foreign trip gives indications about its priorities. It would nevertheless require a significant effort to be able to deliver even a partial resolution. But the fact that the Trump administration is focusing on the issue underlines the significance it attaches to it. In the given circumstances, one does not see any major breakthrough in the foreseeable future. However, global efforts towards resumption of the talks might yield some results. A lot will also depend on the Russian moves and its ability to sustain its current level of involvement in a complex region without getting drained and entangled in the convoluted regional conflicts.
Amidst these developments, the role of militaries and their relations with various regimes has been crucial in determining the stability and integrity of several states and is an important facet of regional security that necessitates deeper analyses and insight. Similarly, the role of international and regional organizations such as the United Nations, UNHCR, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League, the International Red Cross, etc. goes largely unnoticed. The conflict-ridden areas of WANA from Syria, Iraq, and Libya to Yemen have put a strain on these organizations in working constructively for conflict resolution and crisis mitigating therein.
India has expressed its concerns about recent developments taking place in the region. The spread of IS remains a major worry with some Indian youths having joined the IS. The execution of some Indian citizens by the ISIS in Iraq is also a matter of concern for India. It has huge stakes in the region because of its energy dependence, increasing trade and commerce, as also the safety of around 8.5 million Indian expatriates and workers. With the large Indian expatriate population in the GCC alone, deep human links exist between the two sides. The sovereign wealth funds of these countries are already investing in India’s infrastructure sector. Trade relations and security partnerships particularly in counter terrorism are other facets of cooperation between India and several states of the region. However, there is ample scope for strengthening ties and taking relations to higher levels, even as India walks a diplomatic tightrope in a highly fractious regional setting. Predominantly, India has links with the Gulf but rising security concerns have created a situation where it cannot remain indifferent. Hence, India has intensified its engagements with the region and has kept a neutral stance on complex regional issues while being sensitive to threats emanating from terrorism.
In the light of the foregoing, IDSA proposes to organise the Third West Asia Conference in September 2018 to deliberate upon the above mentioned issues and emerging trends. An important reason for organising this international conference is to get the views of experts, officials and researchers from the region, which is also a part of the Institute’s outreach activity with the think tanks based in the WANA region. The conference proposes to discuss, and analyse the emergent security dynamics in the region, the responses of the regional and international players, and its implication for global politics. The challenges likely to be faced by India due to the plausible political, economic, and security scenarios in the region, and India’s priorities and lessons for its foreign policy will be discussed during the conference along with the likely future trends and prospects for the region, security challenges, and their possible solutions.
Some of the questions to be addressed in the three-day conference include the following:
- What are the emergent security dynamics in the West Asia & North Africa region and what are their regional and global implications?
- What are the challenges emerging from major security threats, namely Islamist terrorism and its future, and the raging civil wars and conflicts and their possible resolution?
- What has been the role of militaries in regime security and how does this impact the regional and international responses? How have regional and international players and organisations responded to the changing regional security dynamics?
- What are India’s stakes, what has been its response, and what are the lessons to be learnt in formulating its policy towards the region?
Session Themes
Day – I September 5, 2018
1000– 1100hrs Inaugural and Keynote
The first session will reflect on the theme of the conference.
1115 – 1200hrs
Session I: Changing Regional Dynamics in West Asia and North Africa: An Overview
The session will closely examine the changing security paradigm in West Asia and North Africa and discuss the developments in regional dynamics and its future implications. The session will outline the framework for deliberations over the next two days.
1200 – 1330hrs
Sessions II: The Challenges of Transnational Terrorism: Origin, Developments and Prognosis
The most significant security threat engulfing the region and threatening the whole world is the rise of terrorism. It has not only destabilised the region but has spread its tentacles to the whole world with serious security implications America, Europe, Asia and the Pacific. The sessions will reflect on the phenomenon of radicalisation, extremism and the rise of global terrorism.
1330-1430hrs Lunch
Session III - Confrontation and Conflicts in West Asia: Role of Regional Powers
Confrontation and conflicts in many parts of the region has caused serious instability, loss of lives, and humanitarian crisis. Regional and international efforts towards finding a solution have been ineffective. The session will reflect on role of the regional powers and deliberate on the causes, courses, and possible resolutions of these conflicts. Divided into two parts, the session will discuss the roles of regional players including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey and Egypt.
1430 -1600hrs
Part – A: Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt
1615 – 1745hrs
Part –B: Israel, Turkey and Others
Day – II September 6, 2018
1000-1130hrs.
Session IV: Role of Big Powers: United States, Russia and Europe
As international players seek to expand their influence and extend their interests, they inadvertently step on the sovereignty of others. The WANA region has been a victim of extra-regional involvement and global power dynamics. It continues to suffer from the problem as extra-regional players jostle to preserve and extend their spheres of influence, in the process worsening the security situation. This session will examine the emerging United States approach to the West Asian region, Russia’s re-entry in the region, and European perception and its role
1145-1330hrs
Session V: Emerging Socio-Economic Challenges
This session seeks to closely examine the implication of fall of oil prices and development of new economic policies by the producing countries. The regional countries are confronted with major socio-economic challenges. To address these new challenges, each country is responding by introducing their distinct visions and plans for the future. The session will attempt to explore whether in this context, West Asia is moving towards a ‘new social contract’?
1330-1430 Lunch
1430 -1600hrs
Session VI: India and WANA: Building Partnerships and Managing Challenges
India has significant stakes in the region. Despite maintaining a safe-distance from the crises, it has been directly affected because of the security threats emanating from the region. This has made it impossible for it to maintain a “hands-off” policy, reflected currently in New Delhi’s intensification of engagements with regional powers. The session will consider India’s stakes in the region, policy choices and the lessons learnt from the evolving situation and its future.
1600-1750hrs
Session VII: Panel Discussion: Security and Stability in WANA: The Way Forward
The final session will round up the takeaways from the conference, providing policy recommendations for future.