Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Presidential Election in Sri Lanka” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 23 September 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka’s 2024 Presidential Election after a historic second round of counting, marking the closest election in the country’s history. In the first round, no candidate secured over 50 per cent of the vote required to win the election. Dissanayake received 42.31 per cent and his opponent Sajith Premadasa obtained 32.7 per cent of votes. This was the first election since the 2022 ‘Aragalaya’ –  mass protests ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following a severe economic crisis.  Dissanayake’s promises of good governance and anti-corruption resonated with voters, leading him to victory. He also pledged to revive the economy by developing the manufacturing, agriculture, and IT sectors while continuing the International Monetary Fund bailout agreement with modification of some of the clauses to provide economic justice to the people.  With 17 million eligible voters, the poll was one of the most peaceful in Sri Lankan electoral history.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashish Shukla provided a concise overview of the recent political developments in Sri Lanka. He noted Sri Lanka’s period of economic crisis and widespread protests in 2022, which led President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. Dr. Shukla also highlighted the positive role of Sri Lanka’s leadership in securing an International Monetary Fund bailout to navigate the crisis, and said that this move, nevertheless, generated substantial public resistance. Additionally, he stressed the importance of the 2024 Presidential Election, focusing on voter turnout and the competition among three prominent candidates. He mentioned that for the first time in Sri Lankan history, preference votes were counted to declare the winner. He concluded by emphasising the election’s crucial role in shaping the nation’s future political landscape.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana began her presentation by contextualising Sri Lanka’s 2024 Presidential Election within the nation’s ongoing economic crisis and public dissatisfaction with traditional leadership. She characterised this election as a pivotal moment in Sri Lankan politics, marked by the emergence of new political dynamics as citizens sought alternatives to the traditional political culture and leadership, reflecting a widespread demand for transformative change. She highlighted the competitive nature of the election, where multiple prominent candidates contended for power amid economic challenges and social unrest.  She noted a complex interplay of opinions within the electorate, with differing views on the newly elected leader, Aruna Dissanayake’s ability to lead the country towards economic recovery.

Dr. Sultana drew attention to the contrasting perspectives of the elites and masses regarding the leadership’s capacity to navigate both domestic and international political landscapes. She also examined the divided political support among minority communities, noting that while some candidates received their backing, there was a concern about the persistence of existing power structures and the potential for change. Dr. Sultana further analysed the electoral strategies of the leading candidates, noting that while promises of significant policy shifts were made, many candidates’ historical affiliations with the existing political establishment raised doubts about their ability to enact meaningful change. She emphasised that the new leadership would need to manage public expectations carefully, particularly in relation to economic recovery and governance reforms, to ensure political stability in the future.

Regarding the new President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Dr. Sultana observed that while he is traditionally seen as aligning with leftist ideology, his party’s (National People’s Power) manifesto is not based on pure Marxist-Leninist principles. Rather the manifesto takes a pragmatic approach to deal with  political, economic, social and foreign policy issues. Despite his pragmatism, there is scepticism among a section of electorates about his ability to deliver on election promises.

On the issue of devolution of power, Dr. Sultana noted that past administrations have been reluctant to pursue significant changes. Dissanayake, however, has expressed a commitment to decentralising power and granting local communities political and administrative authority by drafting a new constitution. He has acknowledged the need to address Tamil issues and build a unified Sri Lankan nation that respects diversity. She concluded by stressing that Dissanayake’s handling of sensitive issues and projects, particularly relations with India, will be critical to his ability to meet the electorate’s expectations.

Comments and Questions

Following the presentation, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA complimented Dr. Sultana for a comprehensive presentation and raised key questions. He inquired about the potential impact of unresolved issues like the Tamil question on Sri Lanka’s internal dynamics and its long-term political cycles. He also questioned how the election outcomes might affect India-Sri Lanka relations, noting the gap between pre-election promises and post-election actions. Furthermore, he sought clarity on Sri Lanka’s debt to China, comparing it to the situations in Bangladesh and Pakistan, and questioned why India’s larger financial aid has received little media attention.

 The scholars inquired about the pragmatic approach needed by the new government in Sri Lanka to maintain diplomatic and economic relations, alongside discussions about Sri Lanka’s sensitive stance on foreign influence and internal reforms, including ethnic and land rights issues. The discussion also touched upon China’s increasing presence and Sri Lanka’s balancing act between foreign assistance and national autonomy.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana responded to the comments made by the Director General and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars.

Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.