Monday Morning Meeting on "Nepal Elections: Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policy”

Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on the topic "Nepal Elections: Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policy” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 December 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars and research analysts, and members of MP-IDSA participated in the meeting.

Executive Summary

Nepal has been witnessing prolonged political instability. Modern Nepal had 44 Prime Ministers in 72 years of its political history since 1950. On an average a Nepali Prime Minister served for 18 months. In 2015, Nepal adopted a new constitution with the hope that it would bring political stability. Unfortunately, the country witnessed two governments and again two attempts by former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to dissolve the House of Representatives (HoR) from 2017 to 2022.  Nepal had five Prime Ministers during the post-constitutional period. Given the fragile political history, voters hoped that the November 2022 elections would bring stability by having a majority government (138 as the major mark) of the 275-member HoR. The fractured mandate has once again dashed hopes of political stability in Nepal in the near future.

Detailed Report

Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, discussed Nepal, a country that went through a decade long Maoist insurgency and adopted a new constitution in 2015. According to the New Constitution, Nepal adopted a Federal Parliamentary system. 60 percent of the members are directly elected and 40 percent are elected through proportional representation. The total number of members in the HoR is 275 where 138 Seats are required to win the election. Recently, Nepal went through the general election which was held on 28 November 2022. The Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the largest party in the house and could possibly form the government with its alliance parties, but despite their support, the group is short by 2 seats from the majority mark of 138. K.P Sharma Oli emerged as the biggest opposition leader in the recent election. The main issues of this election were the revival of the domestic economy, political stability, and the problem of governance.

Dr. Nihar R. Nayak commenced his presentation by saying that Nepal has been witness to prolonged instability. The country is suffering from chronic political instability since 1950. In the 72 years of Nepal's political history, Nepal witnessed 44 Prime Ministers. Nepal's Ministership term is 5 years but the actual term is reduced to an average of 18 months due to chronic instability. Dr. Nayak spoke about the recently concluded election in Nepal which is called the "Election of Hope" because the voters of Nepal hoped for political stability after a long period of political instability. Nepal introduced the new constitution in 2015 for political stability in the country but it failed to achieve its objectives. Rather, it has witnessed five Prime Ministers after the adoption of the New Constitution in 2015. The key mandates of the Constitution include political stability, the establishment of an inclusive society, and the use of national resources for rapid economic growth.

He elaborated on the recently concluded Nepal elections and the position of different political parties and also the status of new national parties. As per the constitution, the status of the national party remains for five years.  The status gets updated after every Parliamentary and Provincial Assembly election.  As directed in the Constitution, to hold a national party status, a political party has to secure one HoR seat under the first past the post (FPTP) and 3 percent of the total votes cast under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. As per the  2022 election results, there have been seven national political parties that includes two new parties-the  Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP)  and the Janamat Party.

Besides the fractured mandate, the 2022 election also witnessed some new trends which include the absence of ideology and a CMP ( Common Minimum Program) while forming alliances. Public disenchantment with the old political parties was visible with the defeat of over 40 senior leaders.  Apart from this, some other new developments took place like the emergence and re-emergence of political parties, the decline in Maoists' total vote share, the poor performance of the Madhesi-based political parties, compulsory declaration of election expenditure by the candidates as per the Supreme Court directive, and common issues related to foreign policy were identified in the electoral manifestoes of the top three political parties.   

Dr. Nayak talked about the possible foreign policy of the three main political parties- the NC, Communist Party of Nepal (UML),  and the CPN (Maoist-centre). These parties proposed to have a good relationship with immediate neighbors, not have any military alliance with any country, and resolve border disputes with India. While  the NC has given priority to pursuing an independent foreign policy, expansion of ties with neighboring countries, and resolving border issues with neighboring countries through the diplomatic channel, the CPN-UML wanted to have more engagements with China by emphasising the  ‘One-China' policy. The CPN (Maoist-centre) has proposed to declare Nepal as a zone of peace. 

Dr. Nayak talked about the possible scenarios in the context of the November 2022 results. In Scenario 1, there would be a NC-led government with the support of its alliance. The alliance is short by two seats in order to form a government.  The alliance has to resolve both intra-party and intra-alliance problems like tenureship of the Prime Minister's position, the President, and other constitutional positions. For example, there are five leaders within the NC who want to become the Prime Minister. Also, the Maoist Party wants the Prime Ministerial post for a period of 2.5 years. In Scenario 2, there could be a left-alliance government in Nepal.  If the NC-led alliance fails to form the government then the Maoists could switch to the UML side and a CPN-UML-led government could be formed in Kathmandu. In Scenario 3, the President would explore possibilities to have an elected government for five years under Article 76 of the Constitution. If no party or individual members are able to form the government, the house could be declared dissolved by the President on the recommendation of the Prime Minister under clause 7 of article 76.

 Dr. Nayak concluded by observing that Scenarios 1 and 2 would most likely unfold. However, some wild cards (low possibilities, high impacts) like the accidental absence of some top political leaders and the current President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s return to active politics after her retirement in March 2023, might change the political situation in Nepal.  He concluded by saying that given the current position of the political parties in the HoR and the trust deficit between the alliance partners, Nepal might continue to witness political instability in the future.

Comments and Questions

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, made a suggestion to look at the concerns of India to resolve the border issue between the two countries. He further stated that given the special relationship between Nepal and India, there should not be so much media coverage during discussion on resolution of issues.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha questioned about youth representation in the Nepal election

Dr. Adil Rasheed made a query about the problem of the revival of Jihadi terrorism in the Nepal Terai region.

The speaker, Dr. Nihar R. Nayak gave detailed and analytical replies in response to comments and questions from the panelists and participants.

Report prepared by Mr. Shubham Thorat, Intern, South Asia Center, MP-IDSA.