Comment & Briefs

Every year the United States releases a report on global terrorist activities as required by its domestic law. The latest report is titled Country Reports on Terrorism and includes developments in countries in which acts of terrorism occurred as well as countries that are state sponsors of terrorism. It also provides information on terrorist groups responsible for the death, kidnapping, or injury of Americans. An analysis of these reports over the last few years reveals significant changes in the American perspective on terrorism over the years, especially with reference to Pakistan.

The central leadership of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is under pressure following the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by a section of its cadres. ULFA’s top leaders are likely to have a tough time ahead in keeping their outfit together. However, for the sake of peace and security of Assam, it is advisable for the Government of India to pursue the peace dialogue with a united ULFA rather than with a breakaway faction.

Kabul has for long been wary of Pakistan’s idea of negotiating ‘peace’ deals with Taliban militants operating out of its north-western tribal areas. Pakistan’s earlier peace deals in 2004 and in 2006 were short-lived and had helped the Taliban emerge stronger. Moreover, the 2006 North Waziristan Pact had led to a notable surge in Taliban attacks west of the Durand Line.

Encouraging developments on either side of the Taiwan Straits have taken place recently, considerably reducing the ‘shrill atmospherics’ surrounding ‘independence’ and ‘invasion’ by several notches. The primary determinant driving these developments has undoubtedly been the Kuomintang’s (KMT) coming to power in the legislative elections held in March 2008.

Where are India-China relations heading, given repeated Chinese claims in recent years to Indian territory and a noticeable hardening of its position beginning with Sun Yuxi’s statements on Arunachal Pradesh in 2006? The latest Chinese claim is on Sikkim’s finger tip region, which came up a few weeks before Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s four-day visit to China between 4 and 7 June 2008.

Insurgency movements in India’s northeast would appear to be even more intractable and beyond solution if not for the ongoing ceasefires and peace negotiations between the government and two dozen outfits in various states. Products of the efforts by community based organisations, official initiatives or the plain bankruptcy of ideas of the rebel outfits, such negotiations have been the harbinger of tranquillity in many areas of the region.

In early May 2008 Tata Group of India and Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd (IAI) signed an agreement to establish a joint venture (JV) in India to develop, produce and support defence products such as missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), radars, electronic warfare (EW) systems and homeland security (HLS) systems. The agreement is in sync with Tata’s broader objective of becoming a “lead system integrator” in the Indian private sector, by consolidating its own resources, diversifying into various fields of production and forging partnerships with major global defence companies.

With elections looming large in both countries and the Indo-US nuclear deal facing its moment of truth, the inevitable question will arise as to who has gained how much from the Strategic Partnership that was signed with great fanfare in July 2005. This is not withstanding the fact that the failure of the nuclear deal would undoubtedly be a setback for both countries and besmirch the reputations of those leaders who had put their personal prestige on the line. It would also reflect poorly on the political parties and the governments involved in various ways.

The release of Sheikh Hasina on ‘parole’ for two months has generated hope for the stalled political dialogue and uncertainty over the scheduled Parliamentary elections in December 2008. The Awami League (AL) had earlier demanded the unconditional release of Hasina. But it appears that after hectic negotiations between some of the advisors of the Caretaker Government (CTG) and Hasina, a political understanding was worked out that ultimately saw her being freed. It has given hope to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) about the release of their leader as well from jail.

In a disturbing sign, the Chinese seem to have brought up Sikkim and not Arunachal Pradesh back to the table during the recent visit of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to China. The belief was that China had implicitly recognised Indian sovereignty over Sikkim in 2003, and as such there was no dispute on the matter with China. China’s recognition of Sikkim was interpreted as a quid pro quo for India’s recognition of total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 2003.