In many ways the story of Punjab is anomalous to the stylized facts of civil war literature. Empirical literature on civil wars points to a negative correlation between income and likelihood of conflict. There is also cross-country evidence to suggest that rough terrain contributes to greater possibility of violence. Both these facts did not hold in the case of Punjab. However, recent research on terrorism supports the view that terrorism is not correlated with poverty and lower education levels.

• Prakarsh Singh
• July 18, 2008
• IDSA Comments

The central leadership of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is under pressure following the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by a section of its cadres. ULFA’s top leaders are likely to have a tough time ahead in keeping their outfit together. However, for the sake of peace and security of Assam, it is advisable for the Government of India to pursue the peace dialogue with a united ULFA rather than with a breakaway faction.

• M. Amarjeet Singh
• July 02, 2008
• IDSA Comments

Insurgency movements in India’s northeast would appear to be even more intractable and beyond solution if not for the ongoing ceasefires and peace negotiations between the government and two dozen outfits in various states. Products of the efforts by community based organisations, official initiatives or the plain bankruptcy of ideas of the rebel outfits, such negotiations have been the harbinger of tranquillity in many areas of the region.

• Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
• June 19, 2008
• IDSA Comments

At a time when the India-China border dispute is hogging the limelight and causing unease in the Indian establishment, many festering inter-state border disputes in the Northeast that are sowing seeds of discord seem to elude the attention of policymakers at the Centre. The issue of inter-state border disputes came to the fore recently, when tensions erupted along the Assam-Meghalaya border following the Assam government’s attempt to lay a foundation stone for a primary health sub-centre at Langpih, a border village claimed by both Assam and Meghalaya.

• Pushpita Das
• June 12, 2008
• IDSA Comments

At least nine co-ordinated blasts rocked Jaipur on May 13, 2008, killing more than 70 people and injuring 200. Subsequently, a little known Islamic militant group, Indian Mujahideen (henceforth IM), claimed responsibility for the attacks through an e-mail that contained threatening assertions. The authenticity of the mail has been confirmed by the Indian Intelligence Bureau. Since then, the security establishment in India has been trying to decipher the details of this organisation.

• T. Khurshchev Singh
• May 30, 2008
• IDSA Comments

The Indian reaction to the terrorist attacks in Jaipur has so far been quite predictable. As usual the media has congratulated the citizens of Jaipur for ‘resilience’ and maintaining communal amity, while at the same time lambasting the security set-up in the state as well as in the centre including each and every security, intelligence and investigative agency and their working procedures, lack of coordination, absence of a central agency, etc. First of all, it has to be underscored that Jaipur was very important in the terror target book.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay
• May 28, 2008
• IDSA Comments

The hill district of Assam, North Cachar Hills (N.C. Hills), has been recently in the news all too often but for the wrong reasons. Known for its pristine mountainous landscape and myriad ethnicities, culture and breathtaking bio-diversity, this hill district is now sadly dominating news bytes as a place plagued by a ‘vicious cycle of ethnically slanted indiscriminate violence’.

• Namrata Goswami
• May 26, 2008
• IDSA Comments

In a turnaround of events, the recent encounter with terrorists in Samba area and the reported infiltration of a large group of terrorists through the international border (IB) of Jammu region is a clear indication that levels of infiltration in Jammu & Kashmir are likely to see an increase this summer. The situation in the State was fast moving towards normalcy and hectic political activities were on with more political parties and other groups joining the mainstream, in a run up to elections later this year.

• B. S. Sachar
• May 16, 2008
• IDSA Comments

Normal life in Manipur was drastically affected between March 17 and 19, 2008 when 15 migrants were killed by unidentified armed militants. While there have been accusations that local militants might have been behind the killings, militant groups have categorically denied their involvement. There is likelihood that foreign terrorist groups were involved in the killings to create ethnic apprehension and conflict between migrants and natives.

• T. Khurshchev Singh
• April 29, 2008
• IDSA Comments

Mizoram’s bamboo groves have been bursting into flower since November 2007, causing famine-like conditions. It is not as if the locals have been caught unawares. Since the flowering occurs over a 48-49 year cycle, it was obvious to all in this tiny hill state of North East India that the Melocanna baccifera (local specie of bamboo) would burst into flower in 2007-2008, as it had in 1959 with all the attendant consequences.

• Namrata Goswami
• April 01, 2008
• IDSA Comments