South Asia

Nepal: Precarious Peace Process

Ever since the peace agreement signed between the Maoists and Nepal government in 2006, Nepal has been in the middle of political crisis delaying the constitution making process. The recent row between the Nepal Army and the government leading to the resignation of Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal protesting the President’s intervention in the decision, has aggravated the situation further. The fact is that UCPN-Maoist is not only the largest political party in the Parliament but also important to the success of peace process. The House needs two-third’s majority to pass the bills.

Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis March 2009

Consequent to the peace deals signed by the Pakistani state with Taliban, the number of terror-related incidents in March came down in regions, which have been afflicted with violence in the recent past such as NWFP, FATA and Balochistan. However, there was an increase in terrorist violence in other parts of Pakistan, thereby indicating a shift of Taliban’s theatre of operations from its traditional conflict zones to the heartland of Pakistan.

Masses in Flight: The Crisis of Internal Displacement in Sri Lanka

The exodus from the conflict zone in Sri Lanka as well as the plight of those still trapped in it have not only become a major focus of international attention, but also raise questions about President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s ‘peace through war strategy’. The Sri Lankan government’s case for the final assault on a weakened LTTE irrespective of the “human catastrophe” needs to be challenged. Neither is there a guarantee that life for the affected population will change for the better once they leave government-controlled areas, indicating that the war could drag on indefinitely.

Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis February 2009

Highlight of the month was the peace deal signed by the NWFP government with the founder of Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e- Mohammadi (TNSM), Sufi Mohammad. The deal did bring some ‘peace’ to the restive region but virtually handed over half the territory of NWFP to the Taliban by accepting Shariat laws for Malkand Division and Kohistan district of Hazara Division. As a result, the number of terror related incidents in Pakistan decreased from 430 in January to 374 in February 2009.

Af-Pak Plan: Responding to Holbrooke’s Diplomacy

Much as the text of Obama’s new ‘Af-Pak’ plan echoes India’s traditional concerns, it may turn out to be contrary to India’s interest with unseen implications in the longer term. Obama’s outlined strategy has been described as a ‘bold bid’ ‘bottom-up’ ‘comprehensive’ ‘pragmatic’ and even a ‘game changer’ approach.

P. Stobdan
April 13, 2009
IDSA Comments

NATO in Afghanistan: Fault lines in the transatlantic alliance?

An amicable resolution of issues between America and Europe on addressing the Afghan quagmire is unlikely given that the end state is not clearly defined.

Nepal: New ‘Strategic Partner’ of China?

There has been a major shift in China’s foreign policy towards Nepal since the Maoist ascendance to power. China had earlier adopted a policy of ‘non-intervention’ in the internal matters of Nepal and largely stayed out of Nepalese internal politics. However, the demise of the monarchy and the ascendance of political parties have forced China to reshape its Nepal policy. Moreover, frequent protests by Tibetans in recent months alerted the Chinese to the possibility of the China-Tibet border being misused.

Nihar R. Nayak
March 30, 2009
IDSA Comments

Sheikh Hasina’s Regional Anti-Terror Task Force Unlikely to Takeoff

Counter-terrorism and elimination of religious extremism were important parts of Sheikh Hasina’s election manifesto. But the concern about terrorism is not limited to top Awami League leaders and is also felt by a major section of the Bangladesh public. Many supported the Awami League in the hope of reversing the rising trend of extremism and terrorism in the country. In her very first press conference after winning the elections, Sheikh Hasina stated that she will not allow the country's soil to be used by terror groups and proposed a joint task force in the subcontinent to tackle terror.

Anand Kumar
March 16, 2009
IDSA Comments

Complicity of State Actors in Chittagong Arms Haul Case Revealed

India’s position stands vindicated. It had for long maintained that not only have insurgents from the north east found safe havens in Bangladeshi soil but that they have enjoyed the backing of the Bangladeshi state as well. These allegations have now been proven with the confessional statement of Md. Hafizur Rahman and Din Mohammad, the two accused in the Chittagong arms haul case. This was the largest arms haul in Bangladesh, which had taken place on April 2, 2004 in the Chittagong area.

Consequences of the BDR Mutiny

The mutiny by the troops of Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) on 26 February 26 was extraordinarily brutal. The mutiny toll was about 81 with 72 still missing. Many of these were officers of the Bangladesh army. Three mass graves were discovered. Many bodies were thrown into the sewer pipelines. Many of those killed were stripped, mutilated, bayoneted and shot. The Director General of the BDR, Major General Shakil Ahmed was killed in cold blood. Even his wife was not spared. Her dead body was discovered in one of the mass graves.