Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Ukraine War and Its Impact on South Caucasus Foreign Policy” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 24 February 2025. The session was chaired by Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The session provided a comprehensive analysis on the Topic “Ukraine War and Its Impact on South Caucasus Foreign Policy.” The Russia-Ukraine War has reshaped geopolitics in the South Caucasus, prompting Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to reassess their foreign policies amid shifting Russian influence and growing Western engagement.

Detailed Report

Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. She stated that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, which began on 24 February 2022, has significantly influenced geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the South Caucasus region. The war has forced Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to reassess their foreign policies as they navigate between Russian influence and growing Western engagement.

The discussion that followed focused on the evolving political, security, and economic landscape in the South Caucasus, including relations with major global and regional powers.

Dr. Jason Wahlang in his presentation, defined the South Caucasus Nations’ Foreign Policy.  He said that the three nations of the South Caucasus—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—have historically pursued multi-vector foreign policies. However, their approaches have shifted based on leadership changes and regional conflicts:

According to Dr. Wahlang, Armenia has traditionally aligned with Russia. Armenia followed a “Complementarian” foreign policy until the 2018 Velvet Revolution and the rise of Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan. Recent tensions with Russia have led to a partial reorientation towards the West. Azerbaijan maintains a balanced foreign policy, though the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War has altered its stance. Azerbaijan has leveraged the Ukraine conflict to strengthen its strategic position in energy and transit sectors. Georgia was initially pro-Western following the 2003 Rose Revolution. Georgia’s current leadership under the Georgian Dream party pursued a more multi-directional approach, balancing Russian ties with European Union aspirations.

Dr. Wahlang spoke about the relations of these countries with Russia and the West. He said that despite geographical proximity and historical ties to Russia, the South Caucasus nations have sought greater engagement with the West. Armenia remains a member of Russian-led organizations such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) but has increased defense cooperation with India and France. Azerbaijan benefits from its role as an alternative energy supplier to Europe, reducing reliance on Russian gas. Georgia has strengthened economic and political ties with the European Union (EU) and was granted EU candidate status in 2023. However, its government has maintained trade relations with Russia, raising concerns over its commitment to Western integration.

Dr. Jason Wahlang made a country-specific analysis. About Armenia, he said that it faces security concerns due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and shifting Russian priorities. It has frozen its participation in the CSTO and engaged in discussions about potential EU integration. It diversified its defence ties, engaging with India and France for security cooperation. He explained that Azerbaijan maintains a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine War. It has strengthened relations with Turkiye and the EU, particularly in energy and transit projects. It utilizes the Middle Corridor and International North-South Transport Corridor for trade expansion. With reference to Georgia, he said that internal political tensions impact its foreign policy direction. It refused to impose sanctions on Russia, maintaining economic links despite its EU aspirations. It plays a strategic role in regional transit routes, enhancing its geopolitical importance.

Dr. Jason Wahlang then elaborated on electoral influence. He said that elections have played a crucial role in shaping foreign policy in the region. In Armenia, snap elections in 2021 reaffirmed Pashinyan’s leadership, with the next elections set for 2026. In Azerbaijan, the 2024 snap elections saw President Ilham Aliyev re-elected with 92.2% of the vote, capitalising on the Nagorno-Karabakh victory. In Georgia, Parliamentary elections in 2024 resulted in a victory for the Georgian Dream party, while the presidential election brought Mikheil Kavelashvili to power.

With reference to China’s role, Dr. Jason Wahlang said that China’s engagement in the South Caucasus has increased, particularly in economic projects. Strategic partnerships were signed with Georgia (2023) and Azerbaijan (2024). China awarded a key port contract in Georgia’s Anaklia region. Azerbaijan seeks deeper integration with China, including potential BRICS+ membership.

Dr. Jason Wahlang spoke about the regional powers, Turkiye and Iran. According to him, Turkiye supports Azerbaijan militarily and economically, strengthening its influence in the South Caucasus. Iran is Armenia’s closest ally, opposing Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor project while expanding economic ties with both Armenia and Georgia.

While concluding Dr. Wahlang said that the Ukraine conflict has intensified the need for strategic diversification among South Caucasus nations. While Armenia is cautiously shifting towards the West, Azerbaijan is leveraging its regional influence, and Georgia faces internal challenges that could impact its long-term EU aspirations. Russia’s influence has diminished due to its military preoccupation, creating opportunities for regional and global powers such as Turkiye, Iran, China, and India to play more significant roles. The evolving geopolitical landscape underscores the importance of adaptability in foreign policy as the South Caucasus nations navigate an increasingly complex international environment.

Comments and Q&A

Scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of inquiries. These pertained to the USA’s role in the Ukraine war and security prospects and whether there will be any change in Russia-USA relations; how the Russia-Ukraine War influenced the foreign policy recalibrations of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia; the key factors behind Armenia’s foreign policy shift towards the West, and the challenges it faces in this transition; how electoral factors influence the political stability and foreign policy direction of the South Caucasus nations. The speaker replied to the questions posed by the Scholars.

Report prepared by Mr. Rahul Panwar, Intern, Europe & Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.