Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “President Trump’s Nuclear Approach” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 17 February 2025. The session was moderated by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Dr. Rajiv Nayan spoke on various aspects of President Trump’s nuclear approach, such as his attitude towards nuclear energy, the need for modernisation of the nuclear arsenal, arms control and disarmament treaties, among others. He also gave an overview of the US’ relations with Iran, North Korea, Russia, China and Europe. President Trump is more interested in nuclear energy as trade in nuclear energy is monetarily lucrative for the US.  Unlike in his first term, he has taken a more positive approach towards arms control and nuclear disarmament. His policies towards Iran and North Korea are difficult to decode because there are often contradictions in his rhetoric and actions. Although President Trump has not renounced the extended nuclear umbrella, his personal ties with President Putin might upend the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Trump is a tough negotiator and uses his unorthodox style as a tool to strike a deal.

Detailed Report

Mr. Verma began by highlighting recent stances of President Trump’s words and actions regarding nuclear issues. During Trump’s first term, the United States (US) withdrew itself from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia so that the Pentagon could develop intermediate-range missiles. However, early in his second term, Trump wants arms talks with Russia and China. Moreover, Trump feels the US should not spend money on modernising or building new nuclear weapons, as the country has enough of them. Similarly, during Trump 1.0, he rejected the Iran Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and withdrew the country from it. But now, Trump’s comments regarding exerting maximum pressure on Iran were followed by his desire to have a verified nuclear peace agreement with Iran. His remarks on reaching out to North Korea were also confusing.

Dr. Nayan contended that Trump is more interested in nuclear energy as trade in nuclear energy is monetarily lucrative for the US, but he is not opposed to arms control and nuclear disarmament in the initial days of his second term. During his election campaign, Trump spoke about ‘nuclear warming’, suggesting that nuclear science is a grave threat. Although his team has some nuclear sceptics the likes of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., rest of his team is pro-nuclear energy. The US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, former Chief Executive Officer of an energy company, is focused on nuclear commerce. The US is promoting small modular reactors (SMR) as against the bigger nuclear reactors, claiming that SMRs are safer and better. Although the share market was upbeat anticipating positive news on nuclear energy, the nuclear industry is confused. Thus, we have to see how Trump’s nuclear policy is shaped amidst contradictions.

Dr. Nayan observed that although Trump is clear in his thinking, he confuses the world with his rhetoric and actions. Trump’s team distanced itself from the 2025 Presidential Transition Project (Project 2025) organised by The Heritage Foundation. However, the Trump administration has implemented around 60 recommendations of Project 2025 in the first 24 days. He pointed out that Trump’s contradictory approach is also reflected in the arms control domain. The Trump 1.0 administration wanted to modernise the nuclear arsenal. The Biden administration continued the policy. However, now President Trump claims that the US has sufficient nuclear weapons and that the country need not spend further on its nuclear arsenal.

According to Dr. Nayan, denuclearisation is a possibility, and if the US, Russia and China try to seal a deal in this regard, that would be unprecedented for the Earth. China outrightly rejected the trilateral proposition of the arms control negotiation suggested by Trump. Rather, it called upon the US to have a no-first-use (NFU) policy, which will help reduce the nuclear danger. He touched upon the sensitive topic of renewed possibilities of nuclear testing by the three nuclear powers ­

— the US, Russia and China. Satellite images have shown that Russia and China are building infrastructure to conduct nuclear tests. Thus, some of the voices in the US, such as Robert C. O’Brien, a former national security advisor to Trump, are advising the administration to conduct nuclear testing.

Trump is willing to renew the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START treaty), which is about to expire in 2026. His stance against Iran is also interesting. Initially, Trump spoke about maximum pressure on Iran vis-à-vis its nuclear program; however, now Trump is talking about having another peace agreement with Iran, thus extending an olive branch to the country. Trump has indicated that he would not initially like to go with Israel’s plans of bombing the nuclear infrastructure of Iran so that dialogue succeeds. If any dialogue fails to take place, he does not look opposed to the Israeli idea of bombing the Iranian installations. He stated that he had already supplied the required bombing weapon to Israel.

In the case of North Korea, Trump has sent mixed signals. Of late, Trump has used conciliatory language regarding his relations with Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader of North Korea.

Further, Dr. Nayan succinctly pointed out that although Trump has not renounced the extended nuclear umbrella, his personal ties with President Putin might upend the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). In a few years, we may see a restructured NATO, with the Europeans taking more responsibility regarding their security. There won’t be free-riding anymore. However, in the case of Ukraine, Trump clearly states that Kyiv will never become part of NATO. He has also expressed his opinion about needing a sophisticated space-based missile interceptor system called Iron Dome, along with a better Homeland Missile Defence system and hypersonic missiles. However, at the same time, he wants to cut the defence budget, showing a dichotomy in his approach.

Talking about India-US relations, Dr. Nayan underlined that, unlike earlier statements, there were no references to the proliferation networks or disarmament in the India-US Joint Statement of 14 February 2025. Rather, both countries decided to cooperate with each other in the emerging fields of artificial intelligence, technology, and nuclear energy, among others. India has decided to amend its nuclear liability laws, which will facilitate India-US nuclear commerce in the coming years. The US is pushing New Delhi to get the US-designed SMRs. Moreover, India has expertise in building reactors that yield less energy output.

In conclusion, Dr. Nayan claimed that, as of now, Trump is making decisions as a businessman rather than a statesman. He is trying to become a 21^st-century Eisenhower who had spoken against the military-industrial complex of the US. Trump has a brutal majority at his disposal, which will enable him to make revolutionary decisions, shattering the old thinking. However, it is interesting to see whether Trump will go on that path or if the old guard in the administration will persuade him to walk the beaten path.

Questions and Answers

Responding to questions raised, Dr. Nayan stated that China is asking the US to declare the NFU. Additionally, it is increasing its own nuclear stockpile. Thus, China is being deceptive in its approach towards nuclear weapons. Speaking about the Korean Peninsula, he observed that Trump is in favour of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, although its approach towards North Korea is complex. Most of the countries of the global South abstain when one has to vote in favour of or against Russia. No one wants to antagonise the West or Russia. Dr. Nayan considers Trump a tough negotiator and is of the opinion that Trump uses his unorthodox style as a tool to strike a deal.

The report was prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.