Russia’s Frontiers of Influence in Africa: Geo-strategic Economic Interest, Regime Security, and Counterinsurgency

Africa has become a critical arena for geopolitical rivalry, with Russia seeking to expand its footprint despite facing diplomatic and economic isolation following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although often viewed as opportunistic, Russia’s involvement in Africa is deeply intertwined with its Cold War legacy, during which the Soviet Union provided support to anti-colonial movements and socialist regimes. Moscow’s current engagement is structured around three primary objectives: advancing economic interests, ensuring regime security, and conducting counterinsurgency operations. By leveraging critical mineral agreements and military cooperation, Russia has gained strategic access to valuable resources while reinforcing allied governments through private military groups, particularly the Wagner Group (now rebranded as Africa Corps). However, the long-term viability of this strategy remains in question, as the ongoing war in Ukraine, evolving geopolitical shifts, and the uncertain effectiveness of Russian military interventions pose significant challenges. While these partnerships offer immediate benefits to African regimes, their sustainability is doubtful, highlighting the necessity for broader multilateral frameworks to address Africa’s security and developmental needs.