Dr. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Role of “New Quality Productive Forces” in China’s National Rejuvenation” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 27 January 2025. The session was chaired by Dr. Prashant K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director- General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

 The session provided a conceptual insight into China’s perception of ‘New Quality Productive Forces’ (NQPF) in its quest to achieve ‘high quality development’ and the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Various aspects including the evolution of the discourse on national rejuvenation, China’s two Centenary Goals and the shift in policy focus on cultivating NQPF to achieve high quality development were discussed.

Detailed Report

 Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh opened the discussion with brief remarks on China’s modernisation efforts. He noted that over the years Chinese policymakers have strived to carry out extensive reforms in government, military, legal and social sectors and environmental protection. Further, Beijing also launched rural poverty alleviation and human resource development programmes as part of China’s quest to achieve national rejuvenation. He emphasised the need to study the present policy shift towards cultivating NQPF’s to assess its success and practicality, while also examining the geopolitical aspects of the NQPF.

Dr. Mayuri Banerjee began her presentation by stating that revitalisation of China’s National Rejuvenation has emerged as one of the major themes in China’s domestic political discourse under President Xi Jinping. Highlighting its importance, she stated that the term has frequently appeared in official documents, policy speeches, research articles and academic discussions since 2013. Another aspect which has also gained prominence is the need to cultivate NQPF. Chinese policymakers view NQPF as key to ensuring ‘high quality development’ which in turn would contribute to the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’.

Dr. Banerjee explained that the quest for national rejuvenation in China emerged by the mid-19^th century especially after the Opium Wars.  According to Chinese sources, in the 21^st century, it was Jiang Zemin who first used the phrase ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ in a speech at the 80^th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2001.   She noted that over the years, the concept of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has largely denoted making China strong through the accumulation of wealth and power. However, with the coming of Xi, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has focused on achieving the Two Centenary goals that is, first, building a moderately prosperous society by 2021 and second, building a modern socialist country in all aspects by 2049.  As China claims to have achieved the first goal of building a moderately prosperous society, it is focused on achieving the second goal by 2049 which will position China as both a developed nation and a global power. The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s 14^th  Five Year Plan outlines the scope of the second centenary goal, which includes building economic, social, scientific, and technological strength,  conducting major innovations in core technologies, industrialisation, urbanisation, agricultural modernisation, modernising the national governance system, and enhancing cultural soft aspects. The goal is to expand the middle-income group, reduce the gap in rural-urban development, achieve national defence and military modernisation, and surpass the US in comprehensive national strengthening in economy, science, and technology.

Dr. Banerjee stated that China at present is prioritising ‘high quality development’ to address its national rejuvenation challenges, such as an ageing population, labour shortages, rising labour costs, environmental degradation due to rapid industrialisation, and regional quality economic slowdown. Externally, the country faces increasing hostility from the West, a slowing global economy, and potential disruptions to international trade. The Chinese elites argue that the NQPF can manage both internal and external challenges. In terms of internal challenges, the Chinese policy elites argue that China is losing its traditional advantages of cheap labour and vast natural resources, while environmental considerations constrain industrial activity. The NQPF offers a new avenue for enhancing growth momentum by utilising intelligent technology to replace human labour and make smart decisions regarding markets. Smart tech is expected to identify market opportunities, allocate resources, create new demand, and facilitate low energy and raw material consumption while reducing greenhouse emissions and carbon footprint. In terms of food security, the NQPF aims to drive development in modern farming practices and embrace scientific advancements in agriculture. The new quality productive forces are also expected to promote economic diversification, expand the industrial base, increase competitiveness, generate more jobs, and improve the quality of life in rural areas. Externally, the NQPF represents the fourth industrial revolution, reshaping the form and nature of existing production relations. In terms of defence modernisation, the NQPF will enhance high-quality combat effectiveness in the PLA, with realistic conflict simulation creation, intelligent combat weapons, and information systems embedded in them. China is also exploring disruptive defence innovation to fight automated warfare.

Dr. Banerjee elaborated that in cultivating the NQPF, China faces considerable challenges due to limited collaboration with the US and other foreign countries, as well as restrictions on technology, advanced manufacturing equipment, critical components, and materials. To address these supply vulnerabilities, China must increase self-sufficiency in these areas. The nation’s system also faces limitations, including excessive government interventions, bureaucratic control, and corruption that stifle innovation. There is a lack of basic research facilities and collaboration between public and private sectors, leading to more application-based research. Intellectual property rights protection is insufficient, and China is grappling with debates over data protection and funding due to shrinking foreign funding, due to a slowing economy.

Comments and Questions

 Following the presentation, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA offered his insightful comments. Elaborating briefly on the notion of national rejuvenation, which has been part of the domestic political discourse of other Asian countries like Japan, he explained the historical context of the rise of the idea of national rejuvenation in China. He suggested that the concept of NQPF needs to be assessed against a larger historical backdrop. He also deliberated on further technologies China will need to develop new quality productive forces, and what lessons India can draw from the Chinese experience.

The scholars discussed the impact of the rejuvenation process on the political establishment and national rejuvenation as a strategy adopted by other Asian countries like Japan. The discussion also touched upon the technological advancements by China and the possible implications India must be ready to counter, such as artificial intelligence which is constantly evolving at a cost-efficient and rapid pace.

Dr. Mayuri Banerjee responded to the comments and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars.

The report was prepared by Ms. Alvina A. Almeida, Intern, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.