Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “The Wakhan Road: Obstacles and Opportunities for China-Afghanistan Economic Engagement” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 December 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA and the MP-IDSA scholars and researchers participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The Wakhan Corridor is of immense geopolitical and economic significance for regional players, particularly China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. China’s influence has visibly grown in Afghanistan, post-U.S. withdrawal. The Wakhan Road project, connecting Afghanistan’s Badakhshan Province with China’s Xinjiang region, is projected as a pathway for enhancing trade and economic relations between the two countries. However, geopolitical rivalries, security concerns, and the unstable regional landscape are significant hurdles to realising its full potential.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Nazir Ahmed Mir outlined the topic, emphasising the complexities of the Wakhan Road’s challenges and its importance in China-Afghanistan relations. He further highlighted that future China-Afghanistan relations regarding the Wakhan Corridor will likely be shaped by mutual cooperation, and a mix of opportunities and challenges. He said that the corridor’s success depends on the security situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and broader power struggles in South and Central Asia.

Dr. Singh began her presentation by highlighting the shift in Afghanistan’s regional dynamics after the U.S. withdrawal, driven by China’s rise. Afghanistan’s strategic location was noted to have drawn China’s attention. The Wakhan Corridor highlights Afghanistan’s key role in China’s regional connectivity efforts and in linking East and South Asia. She mentioned that the Corridor holds significant strategic importance as a critical link between Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province and China’s Xinjiang region. By providing a shorter transit route for trade and energy pipelines, the corridor has the potential to enhance efficiency in the movement of goods and resources. It also serves as a catalyst for the local development of Afghanistan, creating employment opportunities through infrastructure projects and related economic activities. Dr. Singh also highlighted that the corridor establishes direct economic connectivity with China, enabling Afghanistan to integrate into the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) network. This fosters trade, investment, and long-term economic partnerships with one of the world’s largest economies.

Dr Singh held that the corridor had presented both opportunities and challenges for China as it sought to expand its influence and connectivity in the region. This connectivity was highlighted as having the potential to enhance regional economic integration, promote stability, and provide access to Afghanistan’s rich natural resources. However, the corridor also posed significant challenges. Security risks were a primary concern, with fears of Uighur militants exploiting the route and instability stemming from Afghanistan’s fragile political environment. Additionally, the lack of trade infrastructure and China’s reliance on Pakistan and Tajikistan, with their complex ties to Afghanistan, complicate the corridor’s utility. Balancing these factors required China to engage cautiously, prioritising stability and long-term collaboration over immediate gains. She also underscored the opportunities and challenges to Pakistan, for shaping its role in regional connectivity and trade dynamics. The corridor was viewed as a crucial extension of CPEC, enhancing its strategic importance. Pakistan envisioned using the corridor to expand connectivity beyond Afghanistan to Tajikistan, opening new trade routes for minerals, textiles, and agricultural products. However, the corridor also posed challenges, as it threatened to reduce Pakistan’s logistical monopoly over Afghanistan by creating alternative routes, diminishing the importance of the Karakoram Highway. According to Dr. Singh, Pakistan needs to manage regional rivalries while cooperating with neighboring states to balance opportunities and challenges.

Dr. Singh threw light on Afghanistan’s strategic position in the Wakhan Corridor and presented numerous challenges, exacerbated by its internal and external dilemmas. Afghanistan’s pursuit of sovereignty and refusal to comply with Pakistan on issues like the Durand Line, TTP, and logistical routes has strained bilateral relations. Additionally, Afghanistan’s relations with Tajikistan have remained frosty: The latter has remained vocally critical of the Taliban regime, further complicating regional dynamics. These issues highlighted Afghanistan’s struggle to balance its foreign policy, secure its borders, and maintain stability in the face of external pressures and internal deficits.

Discussing the way forward, Dr. Singh emphasised that the Wakhan Corridor encapsulates both the promise and perils of regional connectivity. Its success depends on navigating regional dynamics, ensuring security, and fostering collaboration for economic integration and geopolitical influence. As Afghanistan seeks to regain its regional role, the Wakhan Road becomes a litmus test for its neighbours and international stakeholders.

Q&A Session

Participants delved into various aspects of the Wakhan Corridor which revolved around understanding its critical geopolitical and strategic importance. Key questions focused on its role as a gateway for trade, energy, as well as its significance in the context of Afghanistan’s foreign policy and regional alliances. Questions focused on the corridor’s logistics, infrastructure, and the international response to Afghanistan’s changing politics.

The Report was prepared by Mr. Rohit Raj, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.