This Occasional Paper analyzes the Chinese territorial claim from futuristic perspective by identifying three drivers of uncertainty that has bearing on future Chinese behaviour, namely, Chinese regime stability and nationalism; the Tibet factor and internal developments in Arunachal Pradesh. Based on the interactive interplay between the three drivers, the author offers four alternative scenarios with regard to China's territorial claim in 2032.
A non-territorial resolution for the Naga armed ethnic conflict will offer a way forward to resolving many other ethnic conflicts such as those involving the Kukis, Meiteis, Bodos, Dimasas, Hmars, and Karbis.
The recent violence in the Bodo areas indicates the risks associated with the formation of exclusive ethnic homelands based on the demands of the majority population (belonging to an ethnic group) inhabiting a particular geographical area. Formation of such exclusive ethnic homelands may prove to be both an assault on the pluralistic ethos of our country and a nightmare for minority groups living in that terrain.
The need of the hour is to activate a clean and transparent record keeping of land by the state so that violence based on the fear of outsiders forcibly taking away the most precious commodity, land, can be effectively averted.
The ongoing violence between the Bodos and the minority Muslim community is a result of increasing tensions over issues of land grab and illegal migration
Without rooting out the parallel structures of an illegitimate economy and violence existing in Nagaland, efforts undertaken by Naga civil society to bring about peaceful reconciliation would only deliver sub-optimal results.
It is important that the ULFA talks do not get enmeshed on issues that create divisions, counter-claims and result in lack of consensus leading to a locked positional dialogue with no resolution in sight.
There are fears that the NSCN (Khaplang) and NSCN (Khole and Kitovi) will clash violently in big towns like Dimapur and districts like Mon for turf control since both outfits inhabit the same territorial space.
Chairperson: General Satish Nambiar
Discussants: Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain, Military Secretary, Integrated Headquarters (Army), Ministry of Defence