In the last two decades, cross-border gas pipelines have become an integral part of discourse on India’s energy security. Successive reports from the government and the private sector have envisaged an important role for cross-border gas pipeline projects in India. After engaging in negotiations for several years, the Indian Government finally joined the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline over the Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline (IPI) and the Myanmar–Bangladesh–India pipeline (MBI).
M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi replies: The US-Iranian standoff over the latter’s nuclear programme has implications for the IPI gas pipeline project. US has been opposed to the IPI project in view of continuing sanctions on Iran. It has objected to Pakistan going ahead with $7.5 billion gas pipeline deal. The US Assistant Secretary of State, Robert Blake, had told Pakistan back in April 2010 that it is not the right time to have such transactions with Tehran. US has also tried to convince India to not to join IPI and instead look for alternative sources to fulfill its energy demands. US has supported and encouraged the TAPI gas pipeline project as an alternative to the IPI pipeline. However, the US opposition is not the only factor delaying the IPI project. Differences over issues pertaining to pricing mechanism, security guarantees, and transit fees, etc. have also been impinging on the IPI project.
This research article examines the rationale for Iran, Pakistan, and India entering into a trade agreement to meet their economic, political, and strategic needs as well as the constraints and challenges that still hamper such an agreement from realizing its full potential. Using the gas pipeline project as a case study, the issues of energy security (as the independent variable) and of economic interdependence (as the dependent variable) highlight the importance of cooperation among these countries.
National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan’s announcement at an international seminar that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be converting what was originally meant to be a refuelling stop into an official stop-over in New Delhi on his way home from Sri Lanka generated much speculation about the reasons for and timing of the visit.
State-building efforts in Pakistan have been increasingly come under challenge from ethno-national movements. The current spate of insurgency in Balochistan is a product of repressive policies coupled with historical grievances that have led to increased alienation amongst the Baloch and a general perception that they are being exploited. The continuing violence has the potential to destabilise not only Pakistan but the entire region.
TAPI – Still a Distant Dream
If the TAPI pipeline does see the light of day, it will be due to US support and its larger political and strategic considerations.