S. Samuel C. Rajiv replies: If Iran goes nuclear, depending on whether one is a nuclear optimist or pessimist, it could lead either to a more stable Middle East/West Asia or be a cause of greater instabilities. Proponents of the former view include international relations theorists like Kenneth Waltz.

Countries of the region of course hold quite a different view. Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries contend that a nuclear Iran would be emboldened to undertake de-stabilising activities with greater impunity. These could range from increased support for organizations, such as the Hezbollah and Hamas, to contemplating offensive actions like missile attacks or naval brinkmanship for instance.

Accordingly, these countries are fortifying themselves with missile defence assets, procuring sophisticated military assets, among other measures. The GCC countries like Saudi Arabia are also on record stating that they will most definitely explore the possibility of obtaining the nuclear option themselves if Iran goes nuclear. US officials like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Strategic Command chief Gen. Robert Kehler have hinted at the possibility of bestowing extended nuclear deterrence on their allies in the region.

S. Samuel C. Rajiv replies: Iran and North Korea have presented significant challenges to the international non-proliferation regime. Both countries face difficult regional security situations. However, there are differences in the two cases which make their respective nuclear stances also different.

Iran is a regional power in its own right – a huge country (Robert Kaplan calls Iran ‘the greater Middle East’s universal joint’), significant population, massive natural resources, among other strengths. The only claim to fame for North Korea is its dubious nuclear status. While Iran is a theocracy with democratic elections, the other is an authoritarian state based on a personality cult.

As regards their interactions with the non-proliferation regime, North Korea is no longer part of the NPT, while Iran had threatened in the past that it will quit the treaty if pushed to the wall. However, all of Iran’s ‘declared’ nuclear activities continue to come under NPT/IAEA safeguards. While Iran has not followed through on IAEA/UNSC resolutions since September 2005 urging it to stop its uranium enrichment activities among other requirements, North Korea has indulged in a series of nuclear and missile brinkmanship and has been unpredictable in its nuclear stance.