With the death sentence pronounced on Mohammed Morsi, the first democratically elected President in Egypt’s history, it is difficult not to conclude that Egypt is moving away from a democratic destination at an accelerated pace.
It is possible, if there is political will, to find a negotiated settlement on the basis of a new constitution giving greater say to regions in foreign policy. In brief, the US should agree to a sort of Finlandization of Ukraine.
This is the right time to raise a fundamental question about Obama’s policy towards Syria: Is there a coherent, consistent policy, based on a reasonably accurate assessment of the ground realities in Syria? The answer is a definite no.
With the conclusion of the parliamentary and presidential elections, based on a constitution that finely balances the country’s Islamic heritage with the need for modernity, Tunisia has done what Egypt has failed to do.
Israel’s argues that the Hamas does not recognize its existence, which, up to a point, is technically correct. But, a moment of reflection will show that recognition is exchanged only between states and that since Israel has prevented the emergence of an independent Palestine, it has no right to expect recognition from the other side.
The government in Baghdad has lost control over a stretch of territory to ISIL. It follows that Iraq is at present inexorably moving towards dissolution. In any case, it will be a difficult if not impossible task to recover in full the territory under the ISIL and its associates.
It is painfully clear that no serious attempt is being made to resolve the Syrian crisis. There seems to be a certain fatigue in the international community combined with a belief that it is beyond human ingenuity to bring an end to the crisis; the world has to learn to live with it.
It is unlikely that Russia has serious plans to invade Ukraine and there is no reason to believe that EU or even US really wants a war. Yet, US, and perhaps Russia too, are prepared to play brinkmanship and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that there can be a war that nobody wanted.