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Report on Visit of the Delegation from the National Defence College, UAE December 11, 2023 Other

A delegation from the National Defence College, UAE, led by Brig. Gen. Staff Pilot Khalifa Butti Thani Tarish Al Shamsi visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 11 December 2023. Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy made a presentation on the structure and role of the Institute and India-West Asia relations. Established in 1965, MP-IDSA is an autonomous body funded by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), Government of India. The scope of research activities undertaken by MP-IDSA broadly includes issues relating to defence, internal and external security and international relations. Its governance is overseen by the Executive Council, traditionally presided over by the Defence Minister of India. Amb. Chinoy highlighted the diverse spectrum of research initiatives undertaken by the Institute's various Centres, shedding light on key issues and areas of research by the scholars. Emphasising MP-IDSA's contributions, he mentioned significant publications, specifying two esteemed peer-reviewed research journals: Strategic Analysis and Journal of Defence Studies.

Amb. Chinoy mentioned the training mechanism of the Institute in terms of capacity building through short modules for various stakeholders, including Defence Forces (NDC, DSSC, CDM), OFB, BSF Academy, ITBP, Customs, SSB, NTRO, IFS, State Governments and Young Parliamentarians. MP-IDSA has also served as a knowledge partner of MoD for the India-Africa Defence Dialogue, Aero-India and Defence Expo in Lucknow-2020 and Gandhinagar-2022. The Institute has also undertaken and completed study reports/projects on military equipment, cyber security, border infrastructure, defence cooperation, terror financing, border management and maritime security.

Amb. Sujan Chinoy provided a brief overview of India-West Asia relations, highlighting the historical and civilizational links and India’s position as a stakeholder in peace and security in the region. He emphasised that since 2014, high-level engagements have increased remarkably because of the leadership of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi adopted the “Think West” policy to deepen engagement in West Asia in economic, defence, security and strategic cooperation.

With regard to energy cooperation, Amb. Chinoy stated that the Gulf region is the most reliable energy source, supplying 60 per cent of India’s total oil imports. On a positive note, India is deepening engagement with Gulf countries in the green and renewable energy sector as there is a convergence of interests between India and Gulf nations to reduce carbon emissions.

He also highlighted India’s support to West Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic by providing Hydroxychloroquine tablets and medical equipment to the West Asian countries. India sent a team of 88 medical and healthcare professionals to the UAE.

Amb. Chinoy said that under Prime Minister Modi, defence and security cooperation between India and West Asia has deepened substantially. The number of joint exercises between the Army, Navy and Air Force of India and the West Asian countries has increased. India has invited Gulf countries to invest in ‘Make in India’ defence initiatives. Amb. Chinoy mentioned that ISIS networks in India’s neighbourhood are a matter of concern for India. Hence, India is enhancing cooperation in exchanging information relating to terrorist activities and other security challenges to combat threats. He also underlined piracy as a common threat to India and West Asia. For both, maintaining the safety of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) is extremely important. Since 2008, India has consistently deployed a naval ship in the Gulf of Aden. The importance of the Joint Defence Cooperation Committee, Ex Desert Flag, Zayed Talwar, IDEX, NAVDEX and space cooperation were also highlighted.

India-UAE partnership is multifaceted, and high-level exchange of visits signify the importance of the relationship. The UAE President visited India for the G20 Leadership Summit, and PM Modi visited UAE in December 2023 to participate in the COP28 Summit. The UAE is considered India’s special friend and was invited as a Guest Country for India’s G20 Summit. Both countries have convergence of interest on issues such as trade, connectivity, climate, green energy, terrorism and piracy.

The UAE is India’s third largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of around US$ 85 billion. Moreover, both countries signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in February 2022, and bilateral trade has increased by 15 per cent since the CEPA came into force in May 2022. The UAE is the seventh largest investor in India in terms of FDI and the second largest source of LNG and LPG. Remarkably, UAE is India’s second largest export destination, with US$ 31.61 billion in 2022-23. Amb. Chinoy also highlighted India’s connection with the UAE through 3.5 million Indian diaspora working and living in the UAE, contributing to the country’s progress. Notably, in 2022, India received US$ 20 billion from the UAE through diasporic remittances.

The UAE is the first international partner to invest in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Besides, Indian companies have steadily increased their participation in the UAE’s energy sector. Under the mandate of I2U2, the UAE has pledged to invest US$ 2 billion to establish Integrated Food Parks in India.

In his remarks, the head of the NDC UAE delegation Brig. Gen. Staff Pilot Khalifa AlShamsi stated that the NDC UAE broadly covers aspects relating to international relations including military, economic, diplomatic and security as primary domains. He specified that NDC UAE, through its Strategic Security Studies Programme, prepares future military and civilian leaders of the highest calibre. He expressed hope for the future of the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and acknowledged India's support to the UAE during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Q&A Session

Questions relating to MP-IDSA’s research on evolving issues, security challenges for India, I2U2, India’s leadership in Global South and Research and Development (R&D) were asked by the members of the NDC UAE delegation. Amb. Chinoy stated that MP-IDSA engages experts/officials from both defence and civilian categories who are experts in different areas. Scholars of MP-IDSA regularly publish books, Op-eds, commentaries, and research papers in journals. Scholars also visit various places across the country and abroad to present papers at conferences.

On the issue of security challenges for India, Amb. Chinoy spoke about threats emerging from China, Pakistan and disruptions in maritime security. He described challenges relating to maintaining rapid and inclusive economic growth with peace and tranquillity on the periphery. On the issue of India’s leadership potential in Global South, Amb. Chinoy specified that India has already showcased its capacity to be a leader of the Global South by successfully holding the G20 Presidency. The successful conduct of the Voice of Global South Summit at the beginning and end of India’s G20 Presidency has showcased India’s priorities. India’s proposal to include the African Union in the G20 was highly appreciated and was approved by all members, showing the potential of Indian leadership of the Global South. Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme (ITEC) has been widely appreciated in the Global South as a remarkable capacity-building initiative.

With regard to R&D, Amb. Chinoy mentioned that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), under the Ministry of Defence, Government of India, is committed to empowering the nation with advanced defence technologies. With a mission to attain self-reliance in crucial defence technologies and systems, DRDO aims to provide the armed forces with cutting-edge weaponry and equipment aligned with the specific needs of the three Services.

Scholars from MP-IDSA emphasised enhancing collaborative efforts between maritime agencies of India and UAE, considering the adverse impact of climate change is on the rise. Suggestions were also given to deepen the joint counter-terrorism efforts by both countries.

(Report prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA)

Monday Morning Meeting on “Formation of Government in Pakistan: Challenges Ahead” March 04, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Formation of Government in Pakistan: Challenges Ahead” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 04 March 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok Behuria, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

Pakistan faced considerable hurdles both prior to and following its 2024 national elections. Following the elections, the formation of a government was a bit complex and tricky due to a number of reasons including a hung assembly amid allegations of electoral malpractice.  This impasse prolonged political uncertainty as the parties could not agree on a power sharing formula. In the end, external pressure compelled parties to reach a consensus, underscoring the role of non-political entities in shaping political outcomes. These events highlighted the vulnerabilities of Pakistan's democratic framework and governance mechanisms.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria offered a brief overview of recent developments in government formation and political dynamics in Pakistan. He said that contrary to expectations, political engineering resulted in bringing Shebaz Sharif instead of Nawaz Sharif at the front. He also highlighted Punjab’s significant influence on electoral outcomes and its implications for political stability in Pakistan.

Dr. Ashish Shukla began his presentation with Pakistan’s electoral history, marred by allegations of rigging and manipulation. He held that the December 1970 elections were the most free and fair elections in Pakistan’s political history. Speaking of the recent February 2024 election, he argued that the trend of not having a free and fair election continued amidst polarisation and volatility as the key opposition figures faced coercion and were arm-twisted to behave in a particular manner. The return of Nawaz Sharif from exile marked a significant development in domestic politics, and many questioned the way he became re-eligible to contest elections and lead his party. He also underlined the fact that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was denied its election symbol at the last moment leading to all its candidates being treated as independents. Instead of a fair contest among various political parties, the election seemed to have been a battle between PTI’s third-tier leadership and the security establishment. Dr. Shukla also noted that the electoral process lacked its usual vibrancy and enthusiasm, attributed to deliberate targeting of PTI, facilitation of Nawaz Sharif, fear of violence, and security concerns related to persisting terrorist threats.

Voter turnout remained an important indicator of democratic health, reflecting the electorate's engagement in the electoral exercise. Dr. Shukla highlighted that the average voter turnout in Pakistan's last 12 General Elections, including the most recent one, has been around 48.19%. While turnout has varied over the years, with the highest recorded in 1977 and the lowest in 1997, the recent elections witnessed a voter turnout of 47.8 per cent. Further, Dr. Shukla provided an overview of each party's performance in various provinces. The election results showed PTI-independents securing 92 out of 266 available seats nationally, followed by Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) with 75 seats, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) with 54 seats, and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats. He expressed concern about the growing influence of hardliners like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in specific regions. Furthermore, he emphasised that despite attempts by the security establishment to limit PTI's impact, PTI and Imran Khan retained their significance, with their numerical vote share increasing alongside PML-N, PPP, and MQM. Dr. Shukla also highlighted the underperformance of religious parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), while new political entities like PTI-P encountered huge setbacks.

Throwing light on the process of government formation in Pakistan, he noted that no single party secured majority. He assessed that despite attempts by major parties like PTI and PML-N to lead, disagreements persisted, leading to a deadlock in negotiations, particularly between PML-N and PPP. However, a stern warning from the establishment compelled them to reach an agreement, facilitating progress in government formation.

Discussing the challenges before the State, Dr. Shukla said that the new government in Pakistan faces a complex array of challenges on multiple fronts. He said that the external support offered by the PPP weakens the Prime Minister's position, raising doubts about the government's stability and ability to govern effectively. Additionally, disputes over the electoral process have led to protests by the opposition, particularly the PTI, further contributing to political instability. Economic challenges, including high external debt and the need for IMF support, add to the government's woes.

Furthermore, he assessed that internal security concerns are heightened by the resurgence of militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), fuelled by developments in neighbouring Afghanistan. Tensions with Afghanistan and the risk of missteps in foreign policy, particularly concerning India, pose significant threats to regional stability. Balancing relations with key players like China and the United States is essential for economic stability and security in Pakistan. Overall, he underlined that the government must navigate these challenges carefully to ensure stability and progress in the country.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA complimented Dr. Shukla's comprehensive presentation, while emphasising the importance of understanding Pakistan's internal dynamics. Following this, he posed a series of questions and observations regarding the challenges facing the new government. These queries ranged from how the government plans to navigate the complex legal environment to the evolving role of the army in Pakistan's democratic landscape. He also asked about potential initiatives the new government might undertake in its relations with India, considering the need for innovative approaches to regional security.

Additionally, the scholars raised pertinent points about the challenges confronting the new government, behaviour of voters during elections, public perception about the army and Pakistan’s domestic as well as international priorities post- government formation.

Dr. Ashish Shukla responded to the comments made by the Director General and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars.

Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on Understanding China and Pakistan’s UAV Capabilities March 18, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on Understanding China and Pakistan s UAV Capabilities” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 March 2024. The session was moderated by Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The presentation provided a comprehensive overview of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) programs of both China and Pakistan, spanning from their inception to their current known status. It underscored Pakistan’s collaboration with China and Turkey in advancing this technology and its implications for India.It also delved into questions such as why China is emerging as a UAV power and also contemplated on India s UAV projects.

Detailed Report

Col. Rajneesh Singh, in his opening remarks, emphasised that the concept of UAVs is not new and has existed for a considerable period. He noted historical instances such as the use of drones for target practices during World War II and unmanned helicopters during the Cold War. Furthermore, he highlighted the democratization of drone development, previously dominated by the US and Israel, which has now become widespread and is operationalised in various conflicts globally. Drones are also increasingly being used by non-state actors for various purposes.

Gp. Capt. Narang shared a brief anecdote of how he was introduced to Pakistan's UAV development programme in 2015 and his follow up research on evolution of Pakistan’s UAV industry from late 1990s. Regarding China, he discussed the role of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) that was established in 1951 as the Bureau of Aviation Industry and renamed AVIC in 2006. Other notable institutions in China s UAV landscape include Guizhou Aviation Industry Import/Export Corp (GZAIEC), Xi'an ASN Technology Group Co. Ltd., China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).

China’s drone program commenced with the reverse engineering of Russian La-70 target drone that was undertaken at Weapons Test and Training Base in early 1960s by a team led by Gen. Zhao Xu of Peoples’ Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)’. The Cai Hong-3 (CH-3), an armed UAV manufactured by CASC, was initially showcased in 2008. Subsequently, the CH-4 took its maiden flight in 2011. Notably, the CH-5 (MQ-9 Reaper Class) having a payload capacity of 1200 kilograms made its first flight in 2017. WJ-600, a jet-powered UAV manufactured by CASIC, was first displayed at an airshow in 2010.

Gp. Capt. Narang further elucidated how China s UAV R&D followed a trajectory marked by setbacks and extended development timelines. He also emphasized the significant role played by research universities in China, such as Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics (NUAA), Shenyang Aerospace University (SAU), and Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA).

In China, several indigenous UAV programs feature locally developed engines, and there have been efforts to develop supersonic UAVs as well. China is also actively working on miniaturisation of weapons and sensors for UAVs. Furthermore, China has a UAV swarm programme, which included few world record quadcopter UAV swarm displays since 2018. China has exported UAVs to countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Notably, in March 2017, China made an investment of USD 65 billion for establishing the CH-4 UAV manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia.

Turning to Pakistan, he observed that Pakistan has an established UAV development programme. Its UAV program is a collaborative endeavor involving both Public Sector Units (PSUs) and the Private Sector. The public sector entity, Global Industrial and Defense Solutions (GIDS) played a significant role in developing UAVs such as Uqab, Shahpar, and Huma. The private sector companies like East West Infinity (Pvt) Ltd. and Integrated Dynamics made significant contribution in UAV development. Integrated Dynamics, has exported small civil UAVs to Australia, Spain, South Korea, Libya, and United States border guards since 2006. Pakistan also forged partnerships with countries like Turkey and China to manufacture UAVs.

Moving forward, Gp. Capt. Narang pondered why China is emerging as a UAV power. He observed that the innovation friendly structure of its military, which fosters a scholar warrior culture that supports technological development seems to be one of the major contributors to the growth if its domestic UAV industry. The other technology development friendly initiatives of the People s Liberation Army (PLA) include its officers pursuing advanced degrees, establishing a post-doctoral forum on defense technology and PLA personnel leading the technology development projects. He remarked that China s and Pakistan s UAV programs and collaboration between China, Turkey, and Pakistan on UAVs increases India s security and border management challenges.

He also provided a brief overview of India's UAV programs and the challenges they encounter. He discussed challenges leading to closure of India’s UAV programs in the past and uncertainties faced by ongoing UAV development programs. Furthermore, he highlighted how the import of critical components create vulnerabilities and dependencies and how the integration of UAVs remains a challenge.

Questions and Comments

The talk was followed by a Q&A session. Before opening the floor for questions, Col. Singh emphasised that no technology in the world is developed without encountering failure along the way. In response to the question regarding whether Indian UAV programs feature indigenous engines, Gp. Capt. Narang stated that while India has imported engines like Rotax, it possesses the capability to develop indigenous engines. He also stressed the importance of balancing exports and imports, noting that importing numerous systems can incur significant costs.

He emphasised the need for creating consciousness about the importance of Intellectual Property (IP) protection, which has been a weak area. In response to the question about the availability of counter-drone systems in India, he made special mention of contribution of iDEX in developing indigenous solutions. However, he noted that follow up on iDEX initiatives are needed to develop more capable counter drone systems to counter the threat posed by sophisticated drones, especially swarm drones He discussed limitations of Transfer of Technology (TOT) and advocated development of indigenous critical systems.

He also pointed out that indigenously designed, developed and manufactured (IDDM) components are not likely to become commercially viable or cost competitive vis-a-vis global suppliers without supportive IDDM procurement policies. Indian private sector companies have predominantly focused on development of small UAVs. While responding to a question on how Pakistani and Chinese observers view Indian capabilities, he opined that Pakistani observers diligently examine India s UAV programmes and Chinese observers tend to downplay Indian capabilities. In his concluding remarks, he said that even though India has the ability to develop UAVs, it has struggled to transform indigenously developed UAVs into operational UAVs due to variables like delays and inconsistencies in allocation and release of  funds, administrative delays, challenges in obtaining timely approvals,  hesitancy in introducing course corrections etc.

Report was prepared by Mr. Rohit K. Sharma, Research Analyst, Strategic Technologies Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Report on Bridging Gaps in Cybersecurity with Cyber Insurance March 11, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) made a presentation on “Bridging Gaps in Cybersecurity with Cyber Insurance” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 11th March 2024. Lt. Col. Akshat Upadhyay, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Other scholars of MP-IDSA attended the session.

Executive Summary

The presentation summarised the significance of cyber insurance in securing cyberspace, predominantly enterprises and organizations. The presentation also elaborated on the scope of cyber insurance, India’s cyber insurance landscape, the potential impact of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023 on cyber insurance uptake, and the challenges with respect to insurance industry. It also covered the significance of cyber insurance for the prevention and mitigation of cyber risks. 

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Lt. Col. Akshat Upadhyay asked the speaker to differentiate between cyber theft and cyber threats and to comment on an incident relating to Chinese hacker company I-Soon.

The speaker began the discussion by introducing the topic to the audience and the rationale behind selecting the theme. He acknowledged that the book “Rethinking Risk in the Age of Ransomware, Computer Fraud, Data Breach, and Cyberattacks” introduced him to the concept of cyber insurance and its vital role in regulating the cybersecurity preparedness of organizations. Following this, he discussed the scope of the study and offered a few caveats before delving into the core of the topic.

The speaker mentioned how, besides the direct cost of a cyberattack, there are also hidden costs to reputation, future contracts, and relationship with the customers. As reported, IP theft remains one of the prominent reasons behind cyberattacks against companies. Following an attack, the companies also incur financial loss due to penalties levied on them by regulators. Healthcare remains the sector most affected in terms of data breach cost, followed by the financial sector and pharmaceutical sector. The situation following a cyberattack is fraught with challenges as the average data breach lifecycle is 277 days, meaning the more the number of days, the higher the cost to the victim.

Furthermore, he discussed what cyber insurance is, which is essentially a risk transfer mechanism that supports and protects businesses and individuals from financial repercussions following a cyber incident. Moving ahead, Mr. Sharma also discussed the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India’s (IRDAI) definition of cyber insurance, emphasising the adoption of preventive measures to improve the cybersecurity posture of an organization. Mr. Sharma also briefly elaborated on the stakeholders that constitute the cyber insurance ecosystem and the significant role played by these entities.

The speaker also underlined how insurance enables risk sharing with an organization against the inevitable cyber incidents. He also underscored the systemic nature of cyber risk, which is directly correlated to a company's increasing dependence on Software-as-a-service (SaaS). The speaker highlighted the importance of applicable insurance covers for managing cyber risk, which encompasses defense costs arising from privacy breaches, expenses for hiring lawyers to represent an organization against lawsuits, regulatory costs, and fines, as well as the response costs associated with notifying affected individuals.

Further, the speaker elaborated on the distinction between first-party coverage and third-party liability coverage. First-party coverage addresses the direct costs incurred by the company, such as cyber extortion and business interruption losses. On the other hand, third-party coverage involves expenses paid to the aggrieved third parties or the liability arising out of regulatory penalties.

The speaker also addressed other types of services offered by the insurers, including the incident response team (IRT). The technical IRT provides access to dedicated technical personnel experienced in managing cyber incidents. Legal IRT assists in notifying affected customers or individuals during the initial phase of the breach, and public relations IRT helps in mitigating reputational damage and developing a long-term recovery plan. The speaker also highlighted how the need for cyber insurance is felt more in small and medium enterprises because of the less sophisticated IT infrastructure.

 

He also discussed the role of the chief information security officer (CISO) within an organization’s decision-making. Continuing further, he delved into the underwriting methodology employed by the insurers to determine premiums and maximum coverage. These assessments and pricing strategies rely on data-driven approaches drawn from information collected by insurers through questionnaires, surveys, and various other forms of risk assessments. This approach allows insurers to provide monetary incentives to insured entities by setting premiums and coverage levels based on factors such as cybersecurity preparedness, risk mitigation strategies, and the presence of an in-house cybersecurity team. He briefly discussed about the IRDAI’s working group terms of reference of the committee. He also elaborated on how cyber insurance cover can help with regulatory compliance associated with the Digital Personal Data Protection Act (DPDP) 2023.

Questions and Comments

The presentation was followed by a Q&A session. Col. Vivek Chadda (Retd.) raised queries regarding   possibility of cooperation between private cyber security vendors and government agencies, and also regarding potential misuse of data by major companies. Mr. Sharma responded by talking about the Digital Personal Data Protection Act and sectoral regulators like RBI, which for instance has come up a with security framework for the banking system. He also elaborated on the role of the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) that acts as an early warning system for cyber threats and attacks in India. Dr. Anand Kumar raised a query regarding cyber insurance providers in India and inquired whether cyber insurance extends coverage to the impact of armed conflict on physical infrastructure.

Report was prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Myanmar at Crossroads: Three Years of Coup and Civil War February 26, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Myanmar at Crossroads: Three Years of Coup and Civil War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 February 2024. The session was moderated by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

As the junta regime completes three years in power since the 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar finds itself embroiled in an increasingly destructive civil war. Although armed resistance has taken shape over the years, the country has experienced a significant surge in violence since October 2023. An unprecedented level of strategic coordination between several armed groups has won the rebels 35 towns since the launch of Operation 1027. The position of the junta becomes increasingly tenuous as the Myanmar military incurs loss of troops and territories. The enforcement of the People’s Military Service Law has led to further chaos among the general populace. Large-scale displacement and pervasive violence have precipitated a humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. Influx of civilians and defectors across the porous India-Myanmar border has necessitated a discussion on the future of the Free Movement Regime.

Detailed Report

The session commenced with opening remarks by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.). Cmde. Singh provided an overview of the current crisis in Myanmar. Myanmar has been in a state of civil war since the overthrow of the civilian government by the Tatmadaw in 2021. Cmde. Abhay acknowledged 27 October 2023 as an inflection point in the democratic struggle of Myanmar. He observed that while the periphery of Myanmar has always been unstable, the core Bamar region is also beginning to see violence. The spread of violence across large swathes of the country has caused massive loss of human lives on both sides of the conflict.

Mr. Om Prakash Das commenced his presentation with a couple of maps aimed at geographically locating Myanmar within the broader region, as well as visualising the 7 politico-administrative divisions and the ethnic composition of the country. Among the 8 major ethnic groups of Myanmar, Bamar are the largest and most dominant ethnolinguistic community. A map visualising the spread of conflict across the country was also presented. The complex nature of territorial control and integrity in Myanmar is demonstrated by the fact that 40-50 percent of the country is currently controlled by various ethnic communities.

Having rejected the legitimacy of National League for Democracy’s victory in the 2020 general elections, the Burmese military launched a coup d'état less than three months later. The military takeover has since been met with widespread civilian and armed resistance, as well as international condemnation. An estimated 6000 civilian deaths have occurred within the initial 20 months of the coup. Latest reports indicate the detention of more than 26,000 Burmese nationals as political prisoners since the military coup. Burmese resistance at the highest level has taken an organised political form through the establishment of the National Unity Government- Myanmar’s government in exile. The NUG coordinates with the People’s Defence Forces (PDF)- an umbrella term for the various local militias that have emerged since the coup.

Mr. Das noted Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in the northern Shan state, as a milestone in the anti-Tatmadaw resistance. Operation 1027 is a coordinated armed rebellion by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), comprising of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). 3BHA’s initial areas of influence were limited to Myanmar’s borders with India, China, and Bangladesh. The Arakan Army has a strong hold over the peripheral state of Rakhine. Several other Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) throughout the country have engaged the military in combat since October 2023. The Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces (KNDF) in the Kayah state, for example, launched Operation 1111 in November 2023. An unprecedented level of coordinated military strategy by the hitherto disparate factions has yielded significant victories for the rebels across two-thirds of the country.  Conversely, defeats at the hands of the armed rebels have led to low morale and weakened unit cohesion among the military troops. Over 14000 soldiers of the Myanmar army have defected since the 2021 coup. 4000 soldiers have reneged since the launch of Operation 1027 alone.

There also exists the case of an unfolding humanitarian crisis. The United Nations figures indicate the displacement of close to 2.6 million people within Myanmar. The civil war has also triggered the emigration of over 8 lakh Burmese nationals. Around 60,000 Burmese nationals are estimated to have taken refuge in India.

The junta government is currently contending with escalating casualties and defections amidst an unpopular war, compelling it to contemplate contentious measures such as mandatory military service to address manpower shortages. However, this initiative entails significant political risks, as evidenced by incidents of backlash among young adults in response to enforced mandatory military service. In this scenario, Mr. Das states that the throne of junta is shaking, as the periphery and southern regions are virtually out of control of the military.

The military strongly believes in a unique national narrative of its crucial guardian role. It employs both ideological loyalty and financial incentives to maintain the dedication of its officers. There had been no significant internal dissent that threatens the stability of Myanmar military until the 2021 coup.

Mr. Das also discussed the contradictions within the anti-junta forces. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and PDFs have different visions for the future of Myanmar and could face challenges in power-sharing and moderating their respective ideological positions.

After the coup, all the democratic forces came together and tried to structure their aspirations – including ethnic minorities. They published a new Federal Democracy Charter the main objective of which was the removal of the military dictatorship and abolishment of the 2008 constitution which gave the military a political role in the parliament. This charter deals with the questions about how certain issues need to be approached and highlights legal and political considerations to support interim institutions' constitution-building efforts.

Reflecting on India-Myanmar relations, Mr. Das emphasised on the fact that Myanmar has been an important country for India’s Look East, Act East and Neighbourhood First policies. He highlighted that Myanmar is an important member of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, and that Myanmar is India’s gateway to South-East Asia.

He highlighted India’s investments in various infrastructure projects, including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Project that provides an alternative route to the significantly important Siliguri Corridor. Due to the civil war, the area from Sittwe to Paletwa (that falls in the Rakhine state) has now been captured by the Arakan Army. And the area between Paletwa to Mizoram border falls under the Chin State, and thus the project has reached a state of stalemate.

India has displayed a balanced approach towards Myanmar’s junta and to the pro-democratic movement, while officially advocating for the restoration of democracy in the country. India has also engaged with the junta, while creating a delicate balance between supporting democracy while maintaining pragmatic ties with the Junta to secure interest.

Concerning China’s role in Myanmar, Mr. Das said that, the latter is important for China to improve its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and for China’s long-term Blue Ocean objective. Myanmar also serves as a trading outlet to the Indian Ocean for China’s inland province of Sichuan.

The speaker concluded by saying that the probability of the junta regaining its lost territories is very low. The junta, now in a defensive position, is trying to protect the supply routes. Although international actors may push for a negotiated reset, the democratic forces have shown inclination towards negotiating with the military.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA, complimented Mr. Om Prakash Das for his presentation on a topical issue. He remarked that the international community has long had great expectations of Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi had moved the country towards greater democratic impulses, the United States wanted to normalise relations, and there existed interest in Myanmar’s economy. The air of optimism lasted five to seven years before the country descended into cyclical chaos. Amb. Chinoy identified two facets to the internal instability: The Junta’s difficulty in pacifying the periphery, and the pervasiveness of the PDFs that are engaged in action and counter-action against the junta. China has long had interests across the border. Amb. Chinoy opined that any kind of land connectivity, within the Kaladan multi modal project, is difficult to attain because of the sectional progress and changing situation on ground. He suggested that there may be merit in bypassing Myanmar through maritime routes if the land corridor is deemed infeasible in the finite future. According to Amb. Chinoy, hardening of borders in the last mile areas should be a priority. Identifying the different types of transgressions across the India-Myanmar border, he argued for centre-state government convergence on the future of the Free Movement Regime (FMR).  Amb. Chinoy invited Dr. Pushpita Das to shed some more light on the FMR and the challenges of fencing the border.

The MP-IDSA scholars posed a wide array of questions ranging from the cultural linkages between India and Myanmar to whether the growing unrest in Myanmar would have a bearing on separatist movements in Northeast India. Reference was made to the displacement of Rohingyas. The prospect of an outreach to the local ethnic groups, similar to the Chinese policy, was also discussed.Mr. Om Prakash Das provided insightful answers to the questions and comments raised by the Director General and the MP-IDSA scholars.

Report prepared by Ms. Aditi Dhaundiyal, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on “Antarctica: Indian Endeavours in the Icy Continent” February 19, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Commandant Manorajan Srivastava, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Antarctica: Indian Endeavours in the Icy Continent” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 19 February 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha, Senior Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

India has long term geo-strategic interests in Antarctica. It has been sending scientific research expeditions continuously since 1981 and has two operational research stations, Maitri and Bharati in Antarctica. India received consultative status in 1983 by joining the Antarctica Treaty. The present scientific engagements however need to be further enhanced. Joint programs and multidisciplinary scientific studies in complex areas such as identification and study of high energy neutrinos originating within our galaxy and beyond, study of sub-glacial lakes and studies related to meteorites need to be encouraged. Exchange visits of Indian scientists to the South Pole and joint studies need to be explored.

Detailed Report

Dr. Uttam K. Sinha began the discussion by reflecting upon the intersection of geopolitical and geo physical aspects of international politics with regard to the relevance of Antarctica. He further explained the genesis of the word Antarctica before handing over the floor to Commandant Manoranjan Srivastava.

Comdt. Srivastava began with the brief physical, geographic and climatic description of the white continent, Antarctica, also called Continent of peace and science. Antarctica, being the fifth largest continent and covering nearly 10% of earth’s land surface, is an important part of the Earth’s ecosystem. It is a reservoir of almost 90% of earth’s freshwater. The fluctuation in climatic conditions in summer and winters is important as it plays a pivotal role in deciding the atmospheric features on the earth. Explaining the physical genesis of Antarctica as a part of Gondwana land, Comdt. Srivastava went ahead to explain the genesis of human conceptualization of the continent. Ancient Greek philosophers were the first to moot the idea of Antarctica. Ant- Artikos meant ‘the land opposite to Artikos’. Captain James Cook was the first navigator to tackle the problem of Antarctica. He crossed Antarctic Circle four times between 1772-1775 which enabled him to make the claim that ‘no man will ever venture further than I have done, and the land which may lie to the south will never be explored.’ The marine wealth which he discovered made voyages imperative in the next century.

Comdt. Srivastava then moved to an interesting ‘race to the pole’ debate where he covered the expeditions of Roald Amundsen and Robert Falcon Scott to Antarctica. He mentioned that the diversity of flora and fauna is quite limited in a sense that only 2% of Antarctica is free of ice. He also spoke about the effect of increased footfall of tourists on the wildlife biodiversity of Antarctica. He further explained the importance of ‘Krill’, an important link in the Antarctica food chain web.

On the issue of territorial claims, he stated that there are seven nations having territorial claims in Antarctica namely, Norway, France, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. In early 20th century, Britain expanded its footprint in Antarctica in the lure of rich whaling resources. France entered the fray in 1924, followed by Norway. The dispute of territorial claims between Britain, Chile and Argentina has also been slated to reach the International Court of Justice but Argentina and Chile rejected it. The Antarctic Treaty 1959 came into force from 23 June 1961 and all the territorial claims, counter-claims and rights were put in legal cold storage. The short and crisp 14 articles of the Treaty laid to rest all contentious issues. However, challenges emerged due to the oil crisis in 1970s as well as the discovery of oil and minerals in Ross area of Antarctica. Antarctica was then hailed as the new Gulf. The Madrid Protocol of 1991, ratified in 1998 prohibits any mineral exploration from the region for next 50 years taking into consideration environmental concerns.

Comdt. Srivastava then spoke about Indian endeavours in Antarctica. He stated that India’s entry into the Antarctic Treaty system was in 1983. First the Indian vessel, with 21 member scientific team, left from the shores of Goa in 1981 to reach Antarctica via Mauritius. The three Indian stations in Antarctica are Dakshin Gangotri (1983), Maitri (1988) and Bharati (2012) with Maitri and Bharati being operational as on date. The Indian Antarctic science program consists of earth sciences, biological sciences, glaciology and environmental sciences etc. Joint programs and multidisciplinary scientific studies, studies on sub-glacial lakes, studies related to meteorites however need to be encouraged further.

Dr. Sinha reflected upon the significance of important personalities like Viceroy Curzon, and also about India’s early engagements in Antarctica.

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, in his remarks, complimented the clarity and comprehensiveness of the presentation. Amb Chinoy spoke about the geopolitical contestation among the original seven claimants as well as the Treaty’s mandate that explicitly prohibits any such claims. Amidst the claims and counterclaims by major powers including Russia and the United States, Amb. Chinoy asked about the chances of future friction emanating from the geopolitical contestation in the region. Amb. Chinoy further alluded to the dual use features of the Chinese programs in Antarctica. He also asked about the issue of IUU fishing in the Antarctic waters, and its implications.

Comdt. Srivastava while highlighting the prospects of friction in the future with respect to potential claims and counter claims, reflected that the claims and counter claims of the parties have not vanished but are rather put into cold storage till 2048. The increasing demand for minerals, gas and oil may mount pressure on Antarctica and the Antarctic Treaty in future. However, any such endeavors will need careful examination as it will do potential damage to the pristine environment and fragile ecosystem of Antarctica. He alluded to Research stations of Russia, Australia and China and various media reports on recent activities. He applauded the Antarctica Treaty system for its efforts to keep the region de-militarized and de-nuclearized. He also emphasized India’s recent endeavours such as support for protecting the Antarctic environment and co-sponsoring European Union’s proposal for designating East Antarctica and the Weddell Sea as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Indian Antarctic Act 2022 which extends the jurisdiction of Indian courts to Antarctica.

Report prepared by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh February 12, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre delivered a presentation on “Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh” in the weekly Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 February 2024. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre. Scholars of the Institute attended the event.

Executive Summary

The 12th General Parliamentary Election was held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024. The Awami League has won elections consecutively for the fourth time since 2008 by winning 222 seats in the National Assembly. The current opposition party, the Jatiya Party managed to secure 11 seats. The main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the elections. The BNP has taken a position that there cannot be free and fair election under the incumbent Election Commission of Bangladesh. In this election, voter turnout was about 40 per cent which was considerably low compared to the past elections.

Detailed Report

In her opening remarks, Dr. Gulbin Sultana offered a brief overview of Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections and politics of Bangladesh.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik started the presentation by elaborating the facts and figures of the 12th Parliamentary Election and opposition politics. She said that the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina has won the elections consecutively for the fourth time and out of 300 seats they won 222 seats in this election. 28 registered political parties participated in this election, and nearly 2000 candidates contested. Out of 437 independent candidates 382 were from Awami League, and many would believe that they were propped up as dummy candidates to give a semblance of competition. BNP boycotted this election by saying that free and fair election was not possible under the present Election Commission. In 2018, the BNP had contested the election and managed to win only 7 seats. The BNP put forward two preconditions for its participation - resignation of Sheikh Hasina and establishment of a caretaker government.

Further, Dr. Pattanaik said that the two principal political parties, Awami League and BNP, had equal vote share in the past and in Bangladesh, all anti-Awami League forces veer towards the BNP as an alternative. The BNP depended on the Western countries to pressurise the Awami League. It did not have cadres motivated enough to engage in street fights with the ruling party cadres and therefore, the BNP’s stance that it would not allow the election to happen remained merely on paper. After the rally on 28th November 2023 and subsequent violence many of the top BNP leaders were arrested and many went into hiding. BNP cadres were demoralised as there was no one to lead them from the front. BNP did not make any attempt to engage with India as they had done prior to 2018 elections, according to Ms. Pattanaik.  

The Jamaat-e-Islami, an influential religious party in Bangladesh, also decided not to participate in this election. It had participated in the 2018 election as part of the broader alliance of opposition led by the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami has been deregistered as a party in Bangladesh because its constitution militates against the Constitution of the country which is secular. However, JeI is not in a hurry to capture political power as they are interested in Islamisation of the society at large.

Dr. Pattanaik also discussed India's relations with Bangladesh. During the G20 summit, India facilitated the meeting between the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and President Biden. Those groups who are opposed to Hasina in Bangladesh carried out an ‘India Out’ campaign in the social media. However, this campaign did not get traction as majority of the essential goods are imported from India. She attributed the growing anti-Indianism to the prevailing perception in Bangladesh that India is responsible for Hasina’s continuation in power in Bangladesh.

She also held that the ruling Awami League had empowered the paramilitary force of Bangladesh, the Ansar Bahini, giving it power to arrest and detain prior to the election. The US had imposed visa restriction on anyone – individual and entities – who were seen as obstructing free and fair election in Bangladesh.

Questions and Comments

After the presentation ended, the moderator opened the floor for questions and comments. There was a question about whether Bangladesh’s policies facilitated collaboration between the private industries of the two countries. There was also a question on the role of China and how the people in Bangladesh perceived its role and the relationship between the political parties and China. Another question from the floor was on how long Awami League could endure in power and if there was any possibility of Awami League toning down its anti-BNP stance. There was also a query about the people of Bangladesh’s  views about the role of Japan, Russia, US and South Korea. Dr. Pattanaik responded to the comments and questions raised by the scholars of MP-IDSA.

Report prepared by Mr. Shailendra, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Gaza War: The Risk of Regional Escalation January 08, 2024 Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Gaza War: The Risk of Regional Escalation” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 8 January 2024. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The Gaza War which has completed three months has no end in sight with the Israeli endgame not being clear to the other state and non-state actors. Israel has vowed to continue its offensive on Gaza until it achieves its three main objectives of completely dismantling Hamas, rescuing the hostages and creating deterrence. However, the conflict has spread into the region with other players such as the Hezbollah of Lebanon and Houthis of Yemen, both backed by Iran fighting against Israel. This has escalated the fear of the war spreading into the entire region which may see direct or indirect intervention by the US. The entire West Asian region is once again witnessing turmoil with no easy solutions in sight.

Detailed Report

Dr. Saraswat set the framework for the discussion by stating that the Israel-Hamas War has rapidly escalated across the region with external actors such as the Hezbollah playing an active role. She noted that Iran insisted that the Hamas attacks were entirely Palestinian actions but Iran-backed forces, especially Hezbollah, have opened new fronts against Israel. According to Dr. Saraswat, the escalation has been controlled as none of the actors want to fight a full-fledged war but there always remains the possibility of miscalculation and further escalation. She then spoke about the op-ed written by former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who suggested that Israel should directly take on Iran instead of the smaller regional non-state actors and spoke of a new Cold War between Iran and its proxies being referred to as the ‘evil empire’ and Israel and its allies as comprising the ‘democratic camp’ . She briefly mentioned the twin blasts by ISIS in Kerman. Dr. Saraswat pointed out how Israel is emboldened by regional circumstances, given it has not faced any concerted pushback from the Arab countries. She mentioned that the Israeli endgame does not appear very clear and there is a possibility of further entanglement with Iran.

Dr. Adil Rasheed began his presentation with the mention of the sudden Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, which took place just a day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom-Kippur War. He says that three months into the war there is no clear indication of how it is going to play out, with no end in sight. Dr. Rashid mentioned the statement made by British journalist Julian Borger that the Middle East is moving towards a regional war since 7 October. He talked about the recent threats issued by Hezbollah, their increase in bombings, the manner in which attacks have started happening in Iran and the assassinations of leaders including the Deputy Chief of Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut. He pointed out that the region is definitely moving towards a much wider escalation with the Israel Defence Minister mentioning that Israel is fighting a seven-front war with Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. There are other less conventional fronts that Israel might have to face in the coming times like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague where it might find any ruling on accusations of Palestinian genocide problematic. Another disturbing front is that of the global jihadist forces such as Al Qaeda and ISIS issuing threats and targeting Jewish, Israeli, and even American targets. There are tensions within the Netanyahu dispensation as well. The Cabinet was recently shuffled and the Foreign Minister had to resign.

Dr. Rasheed mentioned that the situation in the region three months ago, prior to the Hamas attacks was completely different. There were talks of regional integration including a possible Saudi-Israel rapprochement and economic alliances such as the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which all went into thin air after the war started. This displayed the pace at which geopolitics changes in West Asia.

Dr. Rasheed mentioned that 7 October was the bloodiest single day in modern Israeli history. Hamas launched several incursions from Gaza from land and air. Hamas militants breached high-tech border fences, disabled Israel’s robotic machine guns and penetrated deep into Israeli territories without facing much resistance. Rockets were fired into far away Israeli cities. There was large-scale massacre of civilians, women were raped and children beheaded but there was a paucity of investigations into the reports of beheadings and rapes. The Hamas attack was a 9/11 moment for Israel but it did not get as much global attention. He talked about Israel’s failure to raise the matter at the United Nations or the ICJ as Israel focused more on seeking revenge. The global audience saw Israel’s bombardment of Gaza which undermined the graveness of the Hamas attacks. Israel was unaware of the preparation and the level of sophistication achieved by Hamas in carrying out such an attack. Israeli and other global agencies were completely surprised by the sudden attacks. Hamas was never considered a well trained militia like Hezbollah and ISIS.

Dr. Rasheed listed out three reasons for which Hamas undertook such a massive operation. Firstly, it was to avenge the settler actions of Israel in the West Bank. Secondly, it was also due to Israel’s alleged violations into the al-Aqsa mosque. Lastly, the normalisation in Arab-Israel ties was allegedly threatening the Palestinian cause. Hamas was looking to capture more hostages to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners. Dr. Rasheed said that even though Israel’s actions might be questioned on moral grounds, one could understand their cause of origin. Israel cannot survive in a hostile neighbourhood unless it maintains unquestionable military superiority over its adversaries at all times. It cannot be judged as per the standards of western secular democracy as it was founded to be the only safe homeland for the Jews existing within a volatile region. Thus, Israel has to create deterrence and instill fear among its adversaries. In such a situation many far right leaders made unfortunate statements which were often blown out of proportion.

Dr. Rasheed noted that Israel has resorted to massive bombardment whose intensity out rivalled that of the Ukraine-Russia War, Syrian War and even the Second World War. He then detailed the 27 October ground offensive launched by Israel inside Gaza, followed by brief humanitarian pauses for supply of aid. He mentioned how the residents of northern Gaza had to migrate towards the south, and as the Israeli offensive kept moving south, some people started returning back to their homes in the north of Gaza. He spoke about how the withdrawal of the USS Gerald Ford from the region allowed Hezbollah to carry out more strikes.

Dr. Rasheed ended his presentation by speaking about the possible future strategy of Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu wants to provoke Iran and the US to join the war, so that Israel gets more time to focus exclusively on driving Hamas out of Gaza. However, he also cautioned that Iran and Hezbollah would not be very keen on fighting a full-fledged war because of their domestic economic constraints.

Dr. Saraswat noted that West Asia should not be seen in exceptionalist terms as prone to violence and instability. Instead sources of insecurity, such as external penetration and authoritarianism need to be part of any analysis. She noted that the lack of a solution for the Palestinian issue hinders any talk of sustainable peace in the region. She also mentioned the lack of security dialogue among regional states. Dr. Rasheed added that the Hamas attacks had put a big dent on Israeli and Western security domination and had encouraged other jihadist outfits to carry out such attacks. The floor was then opened for questions and comments.

Questions and Comments

A number of queries and comments were made regarding Israel’s ultimate strategy and objectives, its cartographic stability in comparison to India, the matrix of comparison of Israel’s attacks with other wars, the role of media, the stand of the Jewish diaspora, the role of the international organisations and their resolutions, and the threat posed by Hezbollah and other regional actors.

Dr. Adil Rasheed responded to all the comments and questions. With regard to the international organisations, he noted that Israel does not bother much about it but it is the US under the Democrats which is worried about its image taking a hit domestically and globally. He said that apart from the influential Jewish diaspora, it is the significant Evangelical Christian population of the US which influences its policies towards Israel. He said that due to the increasing role of media, public opinion will gradually make more difference in influencing policies. On the way forward for Israel, he said that a two-state or a one-state solution may not be feasible. Israel may put in charge a non-Hamas led Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza. He also cautioned that things may even go out of control at any moment of time. He also made a brief mention of the challenges faced by Egypt due to the conflict.

Report  prepared by Mr. Farhan Khan, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Russian Delegation Visit to MP-IDSA | Prospects of India-Russia Cooperation in the Arctic February 07, 2024 Other

A five-member delegation from Russian academia and universities dealing with projects related to the Arctic and International Studies in Petrozavodsk, St. Petersburg and Murmansk visited MP-IDSA on 7 February 2024 for an interaction with scholars at the Institute on the theme ‘Prospects of India-Russia Cooperation in the Arctic’. The Russian delegation included Dr. Anton S. Kovshov, Director and Ms. Ekaterina V. Serova, Deputy Director, the Arctic Center, Petrozavodsk State University, Petrozavodsk. Dr. Mikhail V. Vasyokha, Head of the Department of Marine Oil and Gas Engineering and Dr. Zhanna V. Vasilyeva, Head of the Department of Ecology and Technosphere Safety, were from Murmansk Arctic University, Murmansk. The fifth member of the delegation was Dr. Kirill A. Likhachev, Associate Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations, School of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia. The interaction was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, the Director General, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy formally welcomed the Russian Delegation to MP-IDSA. He highlighted the strengths of India-Russia bilateral relations and acknowledged that there exists strong cooperation between the two countries despite global geopolitical uncertainties. DG mentioned that the bilateral trade between India and Russia has surpassed the US$50 billion mark in 2023. He emphasised that these high trade figures are mainly a result of India’s increased imports of Russian hydrocarbons and there is a need to diversify our trade to new areas. DG highlighted the emerging importance of the Arctic region from environmental, economic and strategic perspectives. He mentioned that the limited cooperation in the working groups of the Arctic Council without Russia, which accounts for more than 50 per cent of the coastal extent in the region, remains a cause of concern. DG further mentioned that India supports the development of Russia’s Northern Sea Route and its Far East regions. He highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Act Far East Policy’ and emphasised that India in 2019 allocated a US$1 billion line of credit for the development of Russia’s Far East. DG acknowledged Russia’s decision to train Indian seafarers for Polar Regions and highlighted that Indian seafarers globally contribute 10 per cent of manpower for global shipping. He mentioned that as shipping activity in the NSR develops it offers further prospects for Indian seafarers in Arctic waters. Post these opening remarks, DG welcomed the presentations from the Russian delegation.

Dr. Anton S. Kovshov, Director, Arctic Center, Petrozavodsk State University, Petrozavodsk thanked Ambassador Chinoy for inviting them all to MP-IDSA. He acknowledged all the points made by Ambassador Chinoy and emphasised the need for more people-to-people cooperation between the two countries. Dr. Anton highlighted that the Arctic presents immense opportunities for both Russia and India and at the Arctic Centre, at Petrozavodsk State University their research remains focused on understanding multiple aspects of the Arctic. Dr. Anton highlighted that their Institute conducts multiple activities on Arctic Science, geo-economics, climate change, potential resources in the Arctic and other related aspects via seminars, conferences and publications in both Russian and English language. Dr. Anton highlighted that they are interested in better understanding India’s interests in the Arctic and welcomed the future participation of scholars from MP-IDSA in these. Dr. Anton then invited his colleague Ms. Ekaterina V. Serova to elaborate further on this very aspect.

Ms. Ekaterina V. Serova, in the proceeding slides of the presentation, highlighted the geographical importance of Petrozavodsk State University in the Republic of Karelia from the Arctic perspective. Ms. Serova highlighted India-Russia's increasing annual trade figures and mentioned that the Karelia region accounts for a significant portion of this trade. She then emphasised they are further exploring opportunities for undertaking research about the Indian market to promote Russian products produced by the Arctic SMEs. Ms. Serova mentioned that India can simultaneously seek opportunities for exploring the Russian Arctic region to promote the products of Indian SMEs. Ms. Serova mentioned that their Institute focuses on undertaking research on various Arctic-related projects and she highlighted funding opportunities for Indian researchers. She mentioned that the Gorchakov Fund holds two grant competitions per year and Indian researchers could consider applying to those. Ms. Serova mentioned that their Institute, ‘The Arctic Centre’ organised two major events i.e. ‘The Arctic Business School in Karelia’ and “The Expert Seminar on Science Diplomacy in the Arctic under Global Changes’ in the past that received huge participation. Lastly, Ms. Serova highlighted their Institute's major upcoming event ‘The Arctic: Our Global Neighbourhood’, scheduled for May 2024. She welcomed Indian participation in it via physical or online mode.

Dr. Kirill A. Likhachev made the second presentation and highlighted the opportunities for Indian scholars at Saint Petersburg State University. Dr Likhachev in his presentation mentioned that Saint Petersburg State University is celebrating its 300th anniversary in 2024 whereas the School of International Relations (SIR) is marking its 30th anniversary in February 2024. Dr. Likhachev highlighted that SIR in the past has hosted significant events focusing on International Relations, particularly the South Asia region where scholars from India and different parts of the world have participated in large numbers. He also highlighted the ‘Asian Dialogue Program’ of Saint Petersburg State University and mentioned that Dr. Ashok K. Behuria and Dr. Rajorshi Roy from MP-IDSA have participated in the same. Dr. Likhachev mentioned that they are hosting the 2nd Congress of International Relations Researchers, from April 25-27, 2024 and he welcomed participation from MP-IDSA scholars. Lastly, Dr. Likhachev emphasised though that there remain some complex geopolitical challenges between India and China, there is a need to restart trilateral dialogue between Russia-India-China, at least at scholars and expert levels. He concluded his presentation by highlighting that there are many existing issues of geopolitical concern in South Asia and Russia where both Indian and Russian scholars can undertake collective research in due course.

The third and final presentation was made by Dr. Mikhail Vasekha and Dr. Zhanna Vasileva jointly. Dr. Mikhail Vasekha started his presentation by highlighting that Murmansk remains the most important port city when it comes to the Arctic. He mentioned that Murmansk plays an important role in Russia’s Arctic connectivity and the city remains engaged in mining, fish processing and marine research. Dr. Vasekha emphasised that their research at Murmansk Arctic University focuses on Marine technologies, Arctic bioresources, Environmental technologies and technosphere safety, Arctic mineral and hydrocarbon resources and offshore logistics. He also mentioned that despite geopolitical challenges, they to an extent, have continued to maintain their existing cooperation with the universities of Scandinavian countries. Apart from this, he mentioned that the Murmansk Arctic University holds Summer and Winter schools in which MP-IDSA can consider participating. Dr. Vasekha lastly gave an overview of some of the ongoing and planned projects at Murmansk Arctic University that included the Development of Arctic Logistics', the Northern Sea Route and the Expansion of the Possibilities of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). He then invited his colleague Dr. Zhanna Vasileva to give a detailed account of some of the ongoing scientific projects on the Arctic at their university.

Dr. Zhanna Vasileva highlighted that her area of research mainly focuses on studying the scientific aspects of the Arctic. She mentioned that some of their ongoing projects include ‘Monitoring and assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from ships in the waters of the NSR’, ‘Assessment and forecast of the environmental impact of maritime transport and port development in the Barents Region’, ‘Low-Carbon Marine Logistics and Cross-Border Carbon Regulation in the Arctic’, ‘Development of solutions for the elimination of emergency oil spills and technologies for the restoration of natural environments in the arctic shelf’ and a project involving ‘the study of marine sediments (MS) of the arctic seas’.

In her presentation, Dr. Vasileva gave a detailed account of the various scientific methodologies that they are employing in the study of these projects. She also highlighted some of the possible results that are expected from these ongoing projects. Dr. Vasileva mentioned that they are open to collaboration and partnerships from Indian scientific communities, universities and research Institutes that are involved or interested in undertaking research in these domains. Lastly, Dr. Vasileva highlighted that the Murmansk Arctic University in collaboration with Russia’s ‘Roscosmos’ is opening a Space Information Center in 2024 at Murmansk Arctic University. She mentioned that this would be instrumental in the accumulation and processing of AIS information and Earth sensing data, for integration with additional databases on navigation (databases of ports and Administration of the Northern Sea Route) and security (the base of the Ministry of Emergency Situations) in the waters of the Northern Sea Route.

Both Dr. Mikhail Vasekha and Dr. Zhanna Vasileva made their presentations mainly in Russian Language which were simultaneously translated in English by Ms. Ekaterina V. Serova.   

Questions and Comments

The Director General, Amb. Chinoy complimented the members of the Russian delegation for their detailed presentations. He highlighted that ‘Arctic Tourism’ could become an important area for enhancing India-Russia bilateral cooperation. DG mentioned that there is immense potential in this regard where the Russian side could consider exploring opportunities in the Indian tourism industry. He mentioned that in the post-COVID pandemic recovery years, India’s outbound tourism has witnessed a significant increase.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha mentioned that India, despite being a distant country, remains well-informed regarding the geopolitical and environmental transitions in the Arctic. He also highlighted that India in 2022 came up with its first Arctic Policy document that presents a detailed account of India’s interests in the region.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy highlighted that India-Russia cooperation on any aspect in the Arctic could enhance bilateral cooperation between both countries. He asked the delegation if they could elaborate a bit on ‘How the developments in the Russian Far East have contributed to more attraction of Asian states interests towards the Arctic?’ He also asked the delegation to comment on China's increasing presence in the Russian Arctic.

Dr. Swasti Rao also asked the delegation about the increasing China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic. She further asked the delegation to comment on China’s increasing role in various energy projects in the Arctic.

Dr. Jason asked the delegation about the possibilities of expanding the business of Indian Film Industry in the Russian Arctic. He highlighted that the Arctic offers perfect locations for undertaking cinematographic shoots that could open business opportunities for Indian Bollywood Industry.

Ms. Anandita asked the delegation whether the Russian side is looking for possibilities of expanding Russian businesses via SMEs to Indian markets or whether this could also be explored the other way around.

All the members of the Russian delegation gave detailed remarks to all the comments raised. The interaction ended with a formal note of thanks and an exchange of books and mementoes from both sides.

Report prepared by Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting Report: The Evolving Dynamics in India-Philippines Defence and Security Relations February 05, 2024 1030 to 1300 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Temjenmeren Ao, Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “The Evolving Dynamics in India-Philippines Defence and Security Relations” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 5 February 2024. The session was moderated by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The Republic of the Philippines constitutes an important part of India’s outreach to the Southeast Asian nations since the implementation of the Look East Policy. As India and Philippines complete 75 years of diplomatic ties, new avenues for cooperation have emerged in the current era of geopolitical flux. The developmental trajectory of the two Asian states as well as legitimate maritime security concerns have contributed to the intensification of bilateral relations. The India-Philippines defence and security relationship includes diverse areas of cooperation from joint naval exercises, to capacity building initiatives, regular exchange of views through various dialogue mechanisms and trade in high-tech military hardware. The Marcos Jr. administration seeks to engage with partners such as Japan, India, and France, among others, to counter Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea. Therefore, there exists vast potential for further engagement especially in the domain of maritime security and defence industry cooperation.

Detailed Report

The session commenced with opening remarks by Ms. Shruti Pandalai on the recent developments in the India-Philippines defence relationship. Ms. Pandalai made reference to the sale of US $374.96 million worth BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, expected to be delivered to Philippines by March 2024; extension of a line of credit for defence sales; and the expected posting of India’s defence attaché to Manila. As part of India’s ongoing Long Range Operational Deployment (LROD), INS Kadmatt, a domestically designed and produced anti-submarine warfare (ASW) corvette, was deployed in Manila in December 2023. The ASW corvette took part in a joint exercise with the Philippine Navy’s offshore partol vessel (OPV) BRP Ramon Alcaraz. This intensification of ties was contrasted with a deterioration in Philippines-China relations amid the looming threat of accidental escalation in the South China Sea. Ms. Pandalai noted that several experts are sceptical regarding the ability of the under-equipped Philippine Coast Guard and Navy to hold their own against the PRC’s maritime might. However, the U.S. defence treaty obligations to the Philippines bolster the Philippine defence in the South China Sea, thereby increasing the stakes for the PRC.

Dr. Ao commenced his presentation with a brief outline of the India-Philippines relationship, given the completion of 75 years of diplomatic ties between the two Asian nations. He elucidated that the two states formally established diplomatic relations on 26 November 1949. The geopolitical context of the Cold War dynamics, with a pro-US Philippines and a non-aligned India, hindered the strengthening of the relationship. India’s increased engagement with Southeast Asia post-Cold War, through the formulation of its Look East Policy, worked towards establishment of unique and diverse relationships within the region.

According to Dr. Ao, India’s concerns vis-à-vis the evolving security environment in the Indo-Pacific, as manifest in initiatives such as SAGAR and IPOI, and the Act East Policy, remain limited to maintaining a favourable balance of power in the region. The Philippines approach to the region is routed through ASEAN’s 2019 policy document “ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific” (AOIP). Peace, stability, and predictability are therefore the priorities of Philippines.  The emerging convergences from the geopolitical and geo-economic flux in the region have led to recalibration of relations between external actors (such as India, USA, and China) and Southeast Asian states like the Republic of Philippines. 

Noting the upward trajectory in the India-Philippines bilateral defence relations Dr. Ao highlighted the importance of the BrahMos deal in furthering defence and security ties. Defence relations, although relatively substantive, had hitherto remained rather basic.  The roadmap for defence ties was laid at the first India-Philippines Security Dialogue in 2004, held in Manila. Subsequently, an Agreement for Defence Cooperation was signed in 2006- elevating ties to the strategic level. Establishment of a Joint Defence Cooperation Committee (JDCC) followed, with its first meeting in 2012. The contemporary security relationship between the two is driven by the common pursuit of maritime security, which has gained prominence, with increasing navy-to-navy and coastguard visits and exercises being undertaken.

Dr. Ao argued that the strain in China’s relationship with the Philippines, given the former’s aggression in the South China Sea, has worked to India’s favour. He explored the deterioration in Philippines-China ties through a comparison of the present and previous political dispensation’s handling of Chinese activity in the West Philippine Sea. The Rodrigo Duterte Government had sought a rapprochement with the PRC in the hope of attracting economic investments from the Asian giant amid tensions emanating from the 2016 Arbitral Award. President Marcos Jr., on the contrary, has been a vocal supporter of the 2016 ruling even prior to assuming office. Although there was speculation that Marcos would adopt a balanced approach, increased Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea has caused friction between the Philippines Government and the PRC. Dr. Ao noted that the joint statement issued at the 5th India-Philippines Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation (2023), is significant as India for the first time explicitly endorsed the 2016 Arbitral Award ruling in favour of Manila. India’s change of stance from a neutral position on the issue, to exhibiting a more outspoken and proactive position on the South China Sea toda, stems not only from ongoing tension with China in the LAC but is also rooted in its need to preserve peace and stability in the region.

Increasing Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea has also led to increased US-Philippines defence cooperation. The United States was granted access to four more military bases in the Philippines in 2023 and both sides have increased their joint military exercises.  The two states also held their second joint patrol earlier this year.  Being strategic allies, the US has repeatedly stated that any attack on Philippines, in the South China Sea would invoke the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty and therefore obligate Washington to defend Manila militarily. Dr. Ao also made mention of Japan’s Reciprocal Access Agreement negotiations with the Government of Philippines.

Dr. Temjenmeren Ao concluded that the defence and security relationship between India and Philippines is on an upward trajectory. He argued that the BrahMos deal is significant for India’s ties with Philippines and the larger region. In his assessment, it could lead to exports of other indigenous military hardware to Manila, and possibly diversify the market to include other Southeast Asian nations.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA, complimented Dr. Ao for his presentation on a topical issue. He remarked on the role of the Philippines as a lynchpin of America’s projected power in the Indo-Pacific. According to him, the question that arises is therefore of whether the United States can continue to project said power in the region without the support of the Philippines.  Amb. Chinoy also discussed the strain in the bilateral relationship between China and the Philippines amid encroachments by Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea. He stated that the US ambiguity and the inconsistent approach of the Philippines towards China warrants a discussion on whether the Philippines can launch a sustainable opposition to the PRC. The Director General further questioned whether the Marcos-Duterte discord will have ramifications that could work in China’s favour. With reference to the evolving India-Philippines relationship, Amb. Chinoy stated that cooperation between the two nations is a given in the current geopolitical context. He suggested counter-terrorism as an avenue of security cooperation given the recent spate of terror attacks in the Philippines. 

The MP-IDSA scholars posed a wide array of questions ranging from possible linkages between the Maoist movements in India and the Philippines, to the shipment of BrahMos batteries. Reference was made to prevalence of piracy and drug smuggling routes in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. The possibility of policy change in a post-Marcos era was discussed. 

Dr. Temjenmeren Ao provided insightful answers to the questions and comments raised by the Director General and the MP-IDSA scholars. 

Report prepared by Ms. Aditi Dhaundiyal, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.

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