Session II: Regional Security Issues

Chair: Amb Rajiv Sikri

Participants:

Ms. Soyolgerel, ISS, SCO from Mongolian perspective
Col. Rajeev Agarwal, IDSA, India and SCO
Mr. Dorjsuren, ISS, Foreign Policy of Mongolia with countries like China, Japan, USA,
Korea and Central Asia
Dr. Meena Singh Roy, IDSA, India’s Engagement with Central Asia
Brig. Mandip Singh, IDSA, India's Response to Rise of China

Ms Soyolgerel, discussed the Mongolian Policy towards SCO and its priorities towards it. She started with the background history of SCO moving on to highlight the implementation of bilateral projects with Mongolia. The scholar also highlighted the role of the two main players in SCO ie China and Russia. According to China, economic cooperation should be the main agenda of the organization while for Russia, security issues are of prominence. Due to this opposing view between the two countries, Russia seeks greater cooperation with Eurasia and Central Asia to balance China. This rivalry also impedes process of implementation of projects as China prefers advancement of projects bilaterally in Central Asia while Russia seeks multilateral engagements underpinned with security advancements in Central Asia.

Over the years, military exercises in SCO have expanded in scope. At present, terrorism has become a common issue of such exercises within the organisation. She concluded by saying that SCO is the first integrated organization in the region. Few commitments of the organization have been realized since its inception. But, the dominance of the two countries, China and Russia remains the main issue and can be seen at all levels. She felt that the main aim of the organization should be economic cooperation for the next ten years which again is dependent on China and Russia relations.

Col Rajeev Agarwal, focused on how India can become a member of the SCO and the ways it can contribute to it. He highlighted the importance of the Central Asian Region due to its geographic location and geostrategic importance. He highlighted the concerns of Central Asian Republics (CAR) in their interactions with countries like Russia, China, Iran and India. Next he discussed the relevance, success and failures of the SCO.

He highlighted that although SCO may have grown in scope over the past decade, it was basically established to mitigate border issues between China and CAR post Soviet break down as also to demilitarize the Sino- Russia borders. That apart, it also aims at regional security cooperation in the Central Asian countries. The addition of Afghanistan and Turkey in 2012 as observers has added to the organizational strength. On success of the institution he said that border delimitation treaties between China with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as also demilitarization of the region has been one of the successes. SCO has, however failed in some areas such as lack of concerted efforts in Afghanistan as also the silence during crises in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 and Tajikistan in 2020-11. Moreover, the SCO has been unable to resolve intra border disputes between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

On India and SCO he said that SCO can help create greater visibility for India in the Eurasia region which would help India grow beyond its immediate neighborhood. With membership of SCO, India would able to discuss issues of terrorism, gas pipelines, and energy supplies with this region. Moreover, it would help India in engaging with Pakistan and China in a multilateral forum.

Mr Nanjin Dorjsuren highlighted the factors on which Foreign Policy of Mongolia is based on ie The National Security Concept, Foreign Policy Concept and Government’s action plan for the years 2012-2016. These factors imply friendly relations with neighbors, bilateral and multilateral cooperation with all countries.

On Mongolia China Relations, he said that Chinese economic rise benefits Mongolia but there is also a concern for over dependence. Though an Agreement on strategic partnership was signed with China in 2011 which has helped people to people contact but, better understanding of each other is still lacking. While in the economic sector, he said that issues of mining are a caue for tension as 99% of coal from Mongolia is taken by China, which makes Mongolia a commodity supplier for China.

On Mongolia-US relations, he said that it is based on ‘Third Neighbour Policy’. It has helped in developing a comprehensive partnership with the US while supporting a nuclear weapon free status. US has also helped immensely in Mongolian Military reforms. Economic assistance from the US is a huge contribution in the economic relations between the two countries.

On Mongolia-Japan Relations, he said that the relationship is based on strategic partnership. In this Mongolia supports Japan for UN Security Council seat and vice versa. However, on the economic front, the trade between the two countries is very low. The first rounds of talk on economic partnership agreement were held in June 2012 and are expected to boost economic ties.

On Mongolia and South Korea relations, he said that diplomatic relations have established with Republic of Korea since 1990’s. This relation was strengthened with the 2011 Comprehensive Partnership Relations. On relations with the Democratic Republic of Korea( North Korea) he said that diplomatic relations have been established since 1948 between the two countries. Mongolia supports peaceful relations in the Korean Peninsula for stability.
On Mongolia and Central Asia Relations, he said that this relationship is based on geographic and ethnic ties. But Economic relations are weak and need to be developed. To realize this more attention needs to be paid to energy sector.

Dr Meena Singh Roy focused on India’s engagement with Central Asia. She said that Central Asia remains of immense strategic significance to India. But engagement with the region is moderate compared to US, China or the EU. The lack of direct land connectivity to the region limits India’s engagement with the region. India’s soft power approach could however, deliver enhanced cooperation. The advantage for India lies in its historical links to Central Asia, benign image in the region, scientific and technological advancement and economic growth. These provide India opportunities to maximize its “smart power” strategy in the region.

Next she talked about the Strategic Significance of Central Asia Region. On this she said that it ensures India’s energy security and also provides support for India in international and regional organizations.
On India’s Policy Approach with Central Asia she said that it is based on policy of engaging with extended neighborhood and independent partner, no competition with other international players and close economic ties with the region. These policies developed in phases are described below.

Phase I: 1991-2001which was about low level engagement with Central Asia. There was high expectations from Central Asia but limited economic capabilities of India was a limitation

Phase II: 2001-2010 which included increase in strategic partnership and increase in economic engagement . During this period , SCO observer status was granted to India.

Phase III: 2010-2012 which was highlighted by “Connect Central Asia Policy” formulated on political, economic and cultural approach, greater involvement in education, health, IT sectors and multilateral cooperative mechanisms in form of SCO, CECA etc
Next, the scholar focused on assessment of relations between India and Central Asia in different fields of political, economic, civil nuclear energy cooperation and defence cooperation. She added that economic linkage is still weak and competition with China over the region is a concern. But there have been partial gains in the energy sector. There are many opportunities to address the above like development of pipelines, investments in technology, petrochemical industries and joint venture projects, she added further.
On Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation, she stated that there was agreement on peaceful use. But security issues and instability in Afghanistan are challenges. Also lack of international support for regional projects is another concern in this area.

Brig Mandip Singh focused on the India China relations. On political relations he said that India’s policy towards China has been to retain strategic autonomy, non alignment and Panchsheel. India’s multilateral cooperation developed with China through SCO, G20, and BRIC etc. There have been efforts for multiple bilateral engagements through joint working groups, dialogue on countering terrorism, MoU on parliamentary visits. The basic principle of this relation is cooperation with competition and not confrontation. The two countries have also signed six agreements on cultural exchanges, green technologies and media exchanges. That apart, leadership visits from both countries have also taken place. While on Economic Relations he said that Economic relation commenced in 1951 but shot up in 1991. At present the trade target is $ 100 billion by 2015. Though the Trade deficit of $ 29 billion is becoming unsustainable, the future lies in economic collaboration and innovation. Border trade also needs more opening up for better economic relations.
On military relations, he stated that Military CBMs are in place and the latest CBMs include border meetings, hotlines and video conferencing. That apart, Annual Defence Dialogue has also been arranged and high level delegation visits, seminars and port of call visits have been undertaken.

Next he talked about countering the Rise of China. For this he said that new infantry divisions and mountain strike corps in North East of India have been raised. Moreover, Long range maritime surveillance capability along with new submarines and destroyers and new implements and hardware has also been acquired.

He concluded with highlighting areas of divergence between the two countries. These include border disputes between the two countries, support to Pakistan in the form of supply of military hardware and nuclear technologies. China’s refusal to condemn Jihadi groups in Pakistan is also an irritant for India. The growing Chinese presence in PoK with investments of $ 35 billion in infrastructure projects, widening of the Karakorum Highway and presence of PLA regular troops is a cause of concern as well. The Dams on River Brahmaputra also affect the relations between India and China.

Closing remarks by the Director General, IDSA, Dr Arvind Gupta:

The Director General said that the relations between both India and Mongolia are in a fine shape where a number of initiatives are being taken to develop it further. India’s status as third neighbor gives a certain direction to Mongolian Foreign Policy; concerted efforts should be put by Mongolia to develop these ties further. He said that on the bilateral front, multiple opportunities are opening up especially in the energy sector. Moreover, Defence Cooperation is an important part of the dialogue process and should grow more. That apart, mutual interests of both the countries overlap in certain areas like the Central Asian Region, which could add further to relations between the two countries.

Report by Anwesha Ray Chaudhuri