The Future of War and Peace in Asia

Contents

Preface
-- N.S. Sisodia

Asian Security in an Era of Transition: An Overview
-- S. Kalyanaraman

I The Changing Face of War?

1. Regular and Irregular War
-- Lawrence Freedman

2. The Evolving Security Threat in the Middle East
-- Hilal Khashan

3. The Conflict in Afghanistan and the Evolution of Counter-Insurgency Strategy
-- Rod Thornton

4. Assessing the US Global War on Terror in Afghanistan-Pakistan
-- C. Christine Fair

II Preparing for War

5. Patterns of Doctrinal Change in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army: From Threats to Contingencies to Capabilities
-- Paul H.B. Godwin

6. The US Air Force and the Changing Face of Air Power
-- Benjamin S. Lambeth

7. India’s Maritime Forces: Oceanic and Coastal Security Imperatives
-- Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

III Star Wars in Asia?

8. Is There a Space Race in Asia? Different Perceptions of Space
-- Kazuto Suzuki

9. Who’s Afraid of Missile Defence?
-- Rajesh M. Basrur

10. The Strategic Impact of Indian Ballistic Missile Defence
-- Dean A. Wilkening

IV Asian Geopolitics

11. Thinking Strategically
-- John A. Warden III

12. The United States and the Asia-Pacific
-- Ralph A. Cossa

13. The Competition for Security Roles in Central Asia: A Russian Perspective
-- Ivan Safranchuk

14. ‘A Harmonious World’ and China’s ‘New Diplomacy’
-- Yuan Peng

15. Japan’s Security Policy in an Uncertain World: Evolution and Innovation
-- Lam Peng Er

16. India’s Security Policy in the Post-Cold War Era
-- S. Kalyanaraman

V The Emerging Asian Order

17. The Rise of Asia: Strategic Uncertainties in Power Transition
-- Sujit Dutta

18. The Kindling Years: Balance of Power and the Role of Major Powers in Asia
-- Varun Sahni

About the Editors and Contributors
Index

About the Editors and Contributors

N. S. Sisodia is Director-General of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He is a graduate of St. Stephen’s Delhi and obtained a Master’s degree from Harvard University where he was a Mason Fellow. During a distinguished career in the Indian Administrative Service he held several positions including as Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Defence, as Additional Secretary in the National Security Council Secretariat, and as Secretary in the Ministry of Finance. His most recent publications include “Planning for Sound Defence Budgets” (Journal of Defence Studies, April 2009), Global Power Shifts and Strategic Transition in Asia (New Delhi, 2009), and India-US Relations: Addressing the Challenges of the 21st Century (New Delhi, 2008).

S. Kalyanaraman is Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. His research focus is on India’s foreign and security policies and his publications include studies on the Indian way in counterinsurgency (in Democracies and Small Wars, London, 2003), evolution in the conceptualizations of guerrilla warfare (Strategic Analysis, 2003), the rise of terrorism in the Indian hinterland, the Indian practice of coercive diplomacy (Strategic Analysis, 2002), and Indian and Pakistani approaches to Kashmir in the run-up to the 1947-48 conflict (in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, New Delhi, 2007).

Sir Lawrence Freedman has been Professor of War Studies at King’s College London since 1982. He became Vice-Principal at King’s in 2003. Professor Freedman has written extensively on nuclear strategy and the Cold War and comments regularly on contemporary security issues. His recent publications include A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East, The Revolution in Strategic Affairs, Strategic Coercion (edited), The Cold War (illustrated), and a collection of essays on British defence policy and Kennedy's Wars. His Official History of the Falklands Campaign was published in the summer of 2005.

Hilal Khashan is Professor of Politics and Chair of the Political Studies and Public Administration Department at the American University of Beirut. He is the author of Inside the Lebanese Mind (University Press of America); and, Arabs at the Crossroads: Political Identity and Nationalism (University Press of Florida). His articles have appeared in Orbis, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Third World Quarterly, Security Dialogue, and the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies.

Rod Thornton is a Lecturer at the School of Politics and International Relations, Faculty of Social Sciences, Law and Education in the University of Nottingham. His research interests are in the fields of terrorism, counter-insurgency and modern warfare. Dr. Thornton is an occasional lecturer at the NATO Defence College in Rome and has provided expert evidence to the House of Commons Defence Select Committee. He is author of Asymmetric Warfare: Threat and Response in the 21st Century (Polity Press, 2006). His articles have been published in Small Wars and Insurgencies, Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Defence Studies, International Peacekeeping.

C. Christine Fair is Assistant Professor at the Centre for Peace and Security Studies, in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University, Washington DC. Dr. Fair’s research focuses upon political and military affairs in South Asia. She has authored, co-authored and co-edited several books including: Treading Softly on Sacred Ground: Counterinsurgency Operations on Sacred Space (2008); The Madrassah Challenge: Militancy and Religious Education in Pakistan (2008); Fortifying Pakistan: The Role of US Internal Security Assistance (2006). She serves on the editorial board of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, and is the Managing Editor of India Review.

Paul H.B. Godwin retired as professor of international affairs at the National War College, Washington, DC, in the summer of 1998. He now serves as a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia. In the fall of 1987, he was a Visiting Professor at the Chinese National Defence University. His teaching and research specialties focus on Chinese defence and security policies. Professor Godwin's recent publications include: “The Cradle of Generals: Strategists, Commanders and the PLA National Defence University” (in The “People” in the PLA, 2008); and, Preserving the PLA’s Soul: Civil Military Relations and the New Generation of Chinese Leadership (CAPS Papers No. 33, Taipei, 2003).

Benjamin S. Lambeth is a senior staff member at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Lambeth has written more than six dozen books and articles on air power and other national security-related matters and has lectured widely on these subjects, including at all of the US senior military service schools. He is a member of the Editorial Advisory Boards of Air and Space Power Journal and Strategic Studies Quarterly. He is the author of The Transformation of American Air Power (Cornell University Press, 2000), which won the Air Force Association’s Gill Robb Wilson Award for Arts and Letters in 2001.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury is the Senior Fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, where he heads its South Asia Security programme. He writes regularly on South Asia for IISS publications, including chapters in the annual Strategic Survey and The Military Balance, as well as periodical assessments in Strategic Comments. His publications include: “The Indian Experience: Technology Integration and Self-sufficiency” (in Positioning Navies for the Future, 2006); “India and Pakistan: Nuclear-Related Programmes and Aspirations at Sea” (in South Asia’s Nuclear Security Dilemma, 2005); Nuclear Doctrine, Declaratory Policy, and Escalation Control (Henry Stimson Centre, 2004); and, Sea Power and Indian Security (London, 1995).

Kazuto Suzuki is Associate Professor of International Political Economy at the Public Policy School of Hokkaido University, Japan. An expert on space policy, he has been working as advisor for Space Development Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, the Society of Japanese Aerospace Industry, and policy researcher for JAXA. Dr. Suzuki has published a number of articles and books, both in Japanese and English, including “Japanse Steps toward Regional and Global Confidence Building” (in Collective Security in Space, 2008); “Arms Export Policy in Europe,” Journal of World Affairs (Japanese, 2008); Space: Japan’s New Security Agenda (2007); and, “Transforming Japan’s Space Policy-making” (Space Policy, 2007).

Rajesh M. Basrur is Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His research focuses on global nuclear politics, nuclear terrorism, South Asian security, international relations theory and human security. He is the author of many books including South Asia’s Cold War: Nuclear Weapons and Conflict in Comparative Perspective (2008); Minimum Deterrence and India’s Nuclear Security (2006); India’s External Relations: A Theoretical Analysis (2000). Dr. Basrur has published over 50 research papers and essays in Contemporary South Asia, India Review, Journal of Peace Research and other journals and edited volumes.

Dean A. Wilkening directs the Science Programme at the Centre for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He holds a PhD in physics from Harvard University and worked at the RAND Corporation prior to coming to Stanford. His major research interests include nuclear strategy and policy, arms control, the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons, bioterrorism, ballistic missile defence, and energy and security. His most recent research focuses on the broad strategic and political implications of ballistic missile defence deployments in Northeast Asia, South Asia and Europe.

John A. Warden III is the founder and President of Venturist, Inc., a firm that provides a future-oriented systems approach to the creation and execution of winning strategies for organizations and individuals. His background includes serving as the architect for the successful Gulf War 1991 ‘Desert Storm’ air campaign, authoring The Ai Campaign, heading the US Air Force's Air Command and Staff College, working as Special Assistant to the Vice-President of the United States, commanding the 36th Tactical Fighter Wing in Germany, commanding US forces at Deccimomanu Air Base, Italy, and flying in the Vietnam War (266 combat missions).

Ralph Cossa is President of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, Hawaii. He is a board member of the Council on US-Korean Security Studies and the National Committee on US-China Relations, as well as a member of the ARF Experts and Eminent Persons Group. He is a founding member of the Steering Committee of the multinational Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP). He is a political/military affairs and national security specialist with more than 30 years of experience in formulating, articulating, and implementing US security policy in the Asia-Pacific and Near East–South Asia regions.

Ivan Safranchuk is the Director of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and Director of LaTUK Consulting, Russia. A graduate of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), he was awarded a PhD by the Academy of Military Sciences for his thesis on post-cold war nuclear strategy. Between 2001 and 2008, he served with the World Security Institute. He has been publishing the magazine Great Game: Politics, Business, Security in Central Asia since 2007. His consulting firm specializes on energy, politics and security in Central Asia and neighbouring regions.

Yuan Peng is the Director of the Institute of American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). His research focuses on US foreign policy, Sino-US relations, Asia-Pacific security, and major power relations. His publications include The American Think-tanks and Their Attitudes towards China (editor-in-chief), and Sino-American Relations: A New Analysis (co-editor). He has served as Senior Fellow in the Brookings Institution and at the Atlantic Council.

Lam Peng Er is a Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. He obtained his PhD from Columbia University. His publications include Japan’s Relations with China: Facing a Rising Power (2006); Japan’s Peace-Building Diplomacy in Asia (2009). His research articles have appeared in Pacific Affairs, Asian Survey, and the Japan Forum.

Sujit Dutta holds the Mahatma Gandhi Chair in Peace and Conflict Studies at the Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi. He specializes on Asian security and transition, China’s rise and its impact on Asia, East Asian international relations, India-China relations, and Indian Strategic Thought and national security policies. Prior to joining Jamia Millia, he headed the East Asia Programme at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Prof. Dutta was a member of the India-China Eminent persons’ Group between 2001 and 2005, and a member of the Council on Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

Varun Sahni is Vice Chancellor of the University of Jammu. Earlier, he was Professor in International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is the Editor of South Asian Survey. Professor Sahni has written 75 journal articles, book chapters and research papers on nuclear deterrence, regional security, emerging balances in the Asia-Pacific, evolving security concepts, Indian politics, emerging powers, IR theory, and Latin American military politics. He was conferred the VKRV Rao Prize in Social Sciences for 2006 by the Institute for Social and Economic Change and the Indian Council of Social Science Research for “outstanding achievements in research and teaching.”

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